"But what's the use?"
Zhu Fang scratched his head and said, "Why don't people punish themselves for themselves? It's quite normal after thinking about it."
As if to cover up the embarrassment just now, Zhu Fang took the initiative to speak.
Su Jing looked at Zhu Jing and said, "We don't care for the moment whether it's useful or not. In fact, this is ultimately a psychological game. As long as we see the facts clearly, we can make the final choice."
"Now, let me change this question. If this interrogation becomes ten rounds, at the end of each round, the two prisoners will know each other's choice. The choice in the tenth round will be the final result. Will they make the same choice as they did in the first round?"
Ten rounds of interrogation?
When Zhu Jing heard what Su Jing said, he suddenly felt a little strange: "Mr. Su, are these ten rounds of interrogation necessary? As long as someone in the middle is recruited, isn't it over? The evidence is already there."
Su Jing was stunned, but she didn't expect this guy to ask such a question.
Needless to say, the Prisoner’s Game is a theoretical model, and there are real problems with its real nature.
Su Jing smiled and said: "Just treat these two people as someone to tease them and see how they make their choice."
It would take a long time to really explain what the theoretical model is, but Su Jing also gave a simple and rude reason.
"Okay, Mr. Su."
Zhu Xi nodded, but in his heart he felt that Su Jing's gameplay was quite interesting, and he could try it if he had a chance in the future.
Su Jing continued to add: "The two prisoners can still discuss it in advance, but they will be interrogated separately during the interrogation."
"What choice do you think they will make?"
Everyone started thinking again.
Zhu Rui said: "Master Su, the student thought that since there have been ten rounds, the two prisoners will know each other's choices in the previous rounds. In this way, some trust should be established, and both of them will be silent in the final choice. Get the best outcome for both parties.”
"Fifth brother, you are thinking too well. What if these two people always choose to plead guilty? Anyway, they will fight to the end."
Zhu Xi said disapprovingly.
At this time, Zhu Fan said: "Second brother, if these two prisoners were smart, they would definitely not choose to plead guilty at the beginning, but would definitely remain silent."
"Huh? Third brother, what do you mean?"
Zhu Xi frowned and looked a little ugly, because he seemed to hear Zhu Fan scolding himself for being stupid.
Zhu Fan immediately explained: "Second brother, you see everyone knows that the prisoners must be for their own benefit. Since the first nine rounds are all fake, in order to paralyze the other party, they must choose to remain silent and confess in the tenth round." , wouldn’t it be possible to suddenly change one’s words and obtain a more favorable result for oneself?”
After hearing this, Zhu Xi thought for a moment, nodded and said, "That seems to be the case."
"Third brother, then according to what you said, both prisoners are smart. They remained silent for the first nine rounds and then changed their confessions in the tenth round. The final result will be the same as the previous interrogation only once."
Zhu Biao said thoughtfully.
"Yes, that's true. There seems to be no difference between ten times and one time."
Zhu Xi said with his eyes widened.
At this time, everyone also looked at Su Jing.
Su Jing smiled and said: "Then, let's change it again. If it is still interrogated multiple times and other conditions are the same, but the prisoner is not told how many times it is true? Will the result change?"
Su Jing's question once again made the princes think.
The previous two rounds have given them a certain understanding of this topic.
At this time, the discussion was somewhat heated.
"I think it's still the same. Anyway, confessing can at least guarantee you a sentence of two years less than ten years."
"Second brother, I don't think it's right. This happened many times. They don't know which time will be the last. If I were one of the prisoners, I would choose silence at least the first time."
"Well, if it were me, I might choose to remain silent, lie to the other person first, and then confess in the end."
"But we don't know when the last time was? What if the confession is not the last time?"
"If it's not, then it's okay. We won't lose anything."
"Then what if the previous time when I silently deceived the other party was the last time?"
"That makes sense! Wouldn't it still have the same result as before?"
"No, I think because everyone was silent in the first round, and I don't know if the second round is the last time, the two prisoners may still choose to remain silent. They have the same idea. In fact, they are both trying to reduce their sentences. Anyway, I don’t know which round will be the last, someone will always try.”
Listening to his sons discussing, Zhu Yuanzhang was also thinking about this issue.
He did not think on behalf of the prisoners like the princes did, but thought about whether he, as an interrogator, could use such a method.
This method seems to work well for some cases in which it is difficult to argue between different parties.
After a while, the princes came to a unified conclusion and said to Su Jing:
"Mr. Su, we think that if we don't know how many times, there are three possibilities for the prisoners to choose, all of them are silent, all of them confess, or one of them is silent and the other of them confesses. We still have to see how many times and how many times."
When Su Jing heard this, she nodded slightly and said, "Yes, it seems that you have really thought about it seriously. In fact, the prisoners have not changed. They just changed the limiting conditions, and the results will also change accordingly."
"This is the manifestation of a game mentality. Everyone is acting for their own interests. In many cases, both sides suffer. For their own interests, it is the collective interests that are harmed."
"In a single game, everyone's demands for interests stay at the moment. In order to win this game, they choose the outcome that is most beneficial to their personal interests."
"Once it becomes an unknown number of multiple games, the interests are still the same, but people will not unconsciously put the pursuit of victory in the next game, and a delicate balance will appear."
"This is what I want to talk to you about, the Prisoner's Game."
Su Jing didn't intend to go too profound. In economics, prisoner's game is a very common problem.
For these children, this much is enough.
"Mr. Su, but you still didn't say, what's the use of it?"
Zhu Xi spoke again: "Is it possible that the purpose is to interrogate the prisoner?"
Su Jing shook her head and said: "Of course not. Prisoner's Game is a shortcut that allows you to see the essence of a matter and find the best solution."
"In life, there are games everywhere. How can you make the most correct choice for yourself? This is its use."
After Su Jing finished speaking, these princes did not quite understand.
For this thing, it is more appropriate to give an example.
Su Jing frowned and began to think. He had a lot of practical cases in his mind, but they were all games between modern enterprises and were not very suitable to talk about here.
After thinking for a while, Su Jing's eyes fell on the moon cakes on the table, and he suddenly had an idea.
"Come on, let's play a little game."
Su Jing picked up a mooncake and said, "Now I have a mooncake in my hand, and you all want it."
"If two pairs play a game in a group, if both parties choose to share, then the mooncake will be divided into two and distributed equally. If one chooses to share and the other chooses to eat alone, the person who ate it all will get it all. If both parties choose to eat it all, , then neither of you will get any mooncake dregs, and you can communicate before choosing, and you will have something to say to each other."
As soon as Su Jing finished speaking, Zhu Xi said: "Then I will tell the other party that it will be good if we all choose an equal share."
Zhu Di shook his head and said: "If you want mooncakes, you have to choose to eat them all. Otherwise, if the other party chooses to eat them all, then you won't get anything. I will tell the other party that I will choose to eat them all."
Zhu Xi looked at Zhu Di and said, "Fourth brother, you will get nothing if you do this. Two of you will get nothing."
Zhu Di replied: "No, there is no. I will not place my hope on other people's choices."
Simple and crisp answer.
Zhu Xi didn't know how to answer for a while.
Su Jing glanced at Zhu Di. This fourth child was quite a hardliner.
Zhu Biao said: "Master Su, the student thinks that good words and persuasion are the best."
Zhu Fan replied: "I think what the fourth brother said makes sense, but you have to give the other party a little hope. For example, after I get the mooncake alone, I give half to the other party."
Zhu Ming laughed when he heard this: "Third brother, what you said has to be believed by others! If you don't tell the difference, isn't there nothing?"
Zhu Fan nodded and said: "Yes, I don't care, I have nothing, but I chose to go all alone. Whatever you choose, you will get nothing. Will you take a gamble to see my credibility?"
this.
Zhu Fan's words immediately stunned Zhu Ping.
He took it for a moment, and it turned out that it was exactly what the third child Zhu Fan said.
Once the other party chooses to annex it to death, your only choice is to trust the latter and not trust the other party.
Su Jing couldn't help but pay more attention to the answers given by the third child Zhu Fan.
This Zhu Fan's mind works really fast.
But in a single choice, his answer is basically the most correct answer.
"Yes, that makes sense. In such a choice, pure trust is meaningless. This is a game, and everyone is doing it for their own interests."
Su Jing looked at the group of people and said, "So, what do you think can be done to make you trust each other? In other words, choose an outcome that is good for everyone."
When Su Jing asked the question, the princes fell into silence again.
After a moment, Zhu Rui said: "Master Su, the student thinks that as long as there are enough mooncakes and the number of games between us is enough, it will be enough."
"Oh, tell me, why?"
Su Jing asked Zhu Ju with a smile on her face.
Zhu Rui replied: "The choice of a single mooncake is naturally to eat it all alone. But if there are enough people participating and there are enough mooncakes, then the person who eats it alone will naturally not have anyone to play with him next time, but will choose to share it equally." Then you can find another opponent and continue playing.”
"As long as we can think of this, in the end everyone will definitely choose to share equally in order to keep getting mooncakes."
Despite Zhu Rui's young age, as soon as he said these words, everyone present frowned and started thinking.
It is enough to increase the number of times.
"Very good, Niu Su, you are right."
Su Jing praised: "This is the application of game theory. The games in life are complex and diverse. For personal interests in a single game, choosing to betray is the best result."
"But once the number of games is extended to a sufficient number, the purpose of the game changes from obtaining immediate benefits to long-term benefits, and naturally it tends to be the best choice for the collective benefit."
"This is true between people, and even more so between countries. In the late Eastern Han Dynasty, the Three Kingdoms' struggle for hegemony was a typical manifestation of game theory."
"In the complicated situation at that time, Zhuge Kongming saw at a glance that allying with Wu to fight against Cao was the only correct choice, so he personally came forward to lobby for the alliance."
"However, the people of Soochow were short-sighted and repeatedly corrupted the alliance for their own interests, causing the alliance to exist in name only, and was finally swept away by Cao Shuang."
"If Soochow can look at this matter from the perspective of game theory, they will understand that the interests of Shu and Wu are higher than the interests of Wu as a whole. Only alliance is the only way out."
"Unfortunately, the development of history has shown everything. Not everyone has a clear mind."
Su Jing changed her subject and turned to the struggle for hegemony of the Three Kingdoms. These princes were very familiar with the history of the Three Kingdoms.
As soon as this example was mentioned, they immediately realized the importance of game theory.
"It turns out that the alliance between Shu and Wu can also be explained by this theory."
Zhu Fan murmured to himself, feeling that the theory Su Jing said was extremely appropriate.
This is really what happened.
"Mr. Su is a great talent, and the students understand."
Zhu Fan raised his hands seriously towards Su Jing, his face full of reverence.
"Mr. Su is very knowledgeable, thank you, students!"
The other princes also bowed and thanked Su Jing one by one.
This game theory made them feel something different.
Su Jing smiled and said that she could still handle these children with her half-hearted skills.
However, he did not notice that Zhu Yuanzhang was also carefully appreciating the game theory mentioned by Su Jing at this time.
When it comes to the history of the Three Kingdoms, Zhu Yuanzhang has read it many times, and Liu Bowen also explained it to him.
The reason for the alliance between Shu and Wu was that they had to unite to avoid being annexed by Cao Cao.
Wu State's short-sighted betrayal of the alliance was also criticized by Liu Bowen, but he did not say much about it.
Although Zhu Yuanzhang understood the reasons, Su Jing's use of game theory was novel and made it easier for people to understand the relationship.
In the face of the game between personal interests and group interests, choosing personal interests will lead to damage to collective interests, but the result of the game is still to choose personal interests.
Su Jing's understanding of this political relationship greatly impressed Zhu Yuanzhang.
The more he looked at Su Jing, the more he liked her.
Such a talent is indeed the best person to assist Zhu Biao.
(End of chapter)
