The data does not match up, indicating that there are huge loopholes in the census. If these materials are simply summarized and handed over to the court, then the exact population of the Ming Dynasty may still be a mystery.
Zhu Gaochi had studied statistics in the Imperial College, and he also understood that the population would increase significantly during the period of recuperation. The base population of 500,000 people could not only increase by more than 30,000 people in 14 years.
Just imagine, there are 110,000 households in Shanghai County, and more than 30,000 people have been born in 14 years. If divided evenly, there will be at least 80,000 households that have not had a single child born in more than ten years. Unless all 80,000 households in Shanghai County are single or all are unemployed. Without fertility, otherwise this data is definitely wrong.
After all, Shanghai County has not suffered severe droughts or floods for more than ten years. After the Jianwen Dynasty, excessive corvee labor was alleviated and there was no large-scale population migration.
Besides, Songjiang Prefecture has developed rapidly in recent years, and Shanghai County is not far from Taicang Prefecture. It is an important base for voyage trade. Many businessmen enter Songjiang Prefecture and Suzhou Prefecture to purchase properties and homesteads. Shanghai County is only brought in by merchants. There are quite a few people registered in the country. How could there be such ridiculous data as an increase of just over 7,000 households and more than 30,000 people?
Zhu Gaochi picked up the tea bowl and blew a breath: "The number of photo albums is 673,412. Using this data, we can calculate what the population growth rate was compared to the 24th year of Hongwu."
Zeng Shen and others hurriedly calculated, and Yan Guangzu gave the result: "If we take it as the standard, compared with the 24th year of Hongwu, Shanghai County has an increase of 140,609 people, an average of 10,000 people per year, and the annual population growth rate is roughly two A point."
Shao Yi nodded: "If we compare this year's Yellow Book summary data with Hongwu's 24-year data, Shanghai County's annual population increase is only more than 2,000, and the annual population growth rate is not even 0.5 points."
Zhu Gaochi squinted his eyes and said: "This year's yellow book summary data is definitely wrong. It is calculated using photo IDs. Although there are only two points, considering that children under the age of twelve are not issued photo IDs, only photo IDs are given. Card, this data may be accurate, guess how many children under the age of twelve are there in Shanghai County."
The Imperial College once conducted a demographic analysis and found that children under the age of twelve accounted for roughly 18% of the population. According to this standard, the population under the age of twelve in Shanghai County is 121,214, which is similar to Zhaoshentie. The 673,412 copies were added up, totaling 794,626 people.
Zeng Shen quickly calculated the relevant data and said: "If we calculate it based on the population data of Zhao Shen Tie and Zhao Shen Plate, compared to the 24th year of Hongwu, the population has increased by 261,823 people, with an average annual increase of 18,701 people. The average annual population The growth rate is 3.7%, which is consistent with the statistics of the Imperial College’s population growth rate being between 3.5% and 4%.”
Zhou You, Yan Guangzu, Shao Yi and others were very surprised when they saw this result, and Zhu Gaochi also had a face as cold as frost.
If the number of photo IDs plus the estimated number of ID plates is used as the criterion, the population of Shanghai County has reached 794,626 people, but the yellow registration household registration result is only 565,142 people, which is an underreporting of 229,484 people!
Nearly 230,000 people were not included in the statistics. This result is really shocking!
Yan Guangzu looked solemn and said in a low voice: "This loophole is really too big."
Zhou You also knows very well that for a small Shanghai county, the population is underreported by more than 200,000. Even if there is a slight deviation in the guess, at least 150,000 or 60,000 people are underreported. This is simply unimaginable. Once it is reported, The emperor knows that he does not know how many people will be implicated. Shanghai County will be in trouble, Songjiang Prefecture will be in trouble, and the censors and Imperial College students who participated in the population verification will be in trouble!
It's too big.
Zhu Gaochi also understands the seriousness of the problem. If the local government conceals its population, it will mean the existence of corruption.
The imperial court only levied taxes based on the number of people and acres of land in the yellow rolls. For those who were not in the yellow rolls, the court could not collect even a penny in taxes.
The fact that the court cannot collect it does not mean that the local government cannot collect it. Excluding the children among the population of more than 200,000, there are still 100,000 people who have not been reported. 100,000 people are equivalent to 20,000 households, even if it is one or two yuan per household, that is An astonishing twenty thousand dollars.
"Change the accounting to another county!"
Zhu Gaochi did not immediately go to Xia Yuanji with these questions, but chose to continue the investigation.
Zeng Shen, Zhou You and others continued to look through the yellow books and investigated the three counties of Huating, Nanqiao and Zhelin in Songjiang Prefecture, and also investigated Tongli, Pingwang, Qiandun and other counties in Suzhou Prefecture. The data of all counties were consistent with those of Zhao. The number of stickers issued does not match up, but after calculation, the data is not as exaggerated as the population shortage of Shanghai County. Most of the difference is only ten thousand or even a few thousand. Although the data is wrong, it is not outrageous.
Zhu Gaochi looked at the data one by one and said seriously: "Looking at the data from other counties, it always doesn't match up. At least it means that one of the data in the yellow book or the photo ID card is wrong. The issuance and approval of the photo ID card are left to the local government. Production, the Audit Department is responsible for supervision and distribution, and the local government is directly responsible for the yellow book data..."
Zeng Shen and others remained silent. Data does not lie, but people can forge data.
Zhu Gaochi took a stack of data, stood up and said, "You continue to check other county offices, and I'll go find Xia Shangshu."
Xia Yuanji was approving the finances of the local chief envoy last year. When Zhu Gaochi asked for an audience, he arranged for people to come in.
Facing the Crown Prince of Yan, Xia Yuanji did not show any inferiority. Instead, he looked at Zhu Gaochi calmly, who had difficulty walking. After arranging to sit down, he asked: "It seems that you have found a problem in the Department of Household Affairs."
Zhu Gaochi was stunned for a moment. Unexpectedly, Xia Yuanji knew his purpose. He stood up and handed over a data chart and said seriously: "The population statistics of Shanghai County do not match up, and the data from other counties do not match up either. This is not conducive to the census." .”
Xia Yuanji glanced down and nodded: "Yes, these data don't match up."
Zhu Gaochi asked doubtfully: "Does Shangshu Xia know these issues?"
Xia Yuanji nodded slightly.
Zhu Gaochi was a little surprised. Xia Yuanji was busy with official duties, and he actually knew about the problems with these data. Since he knew, why didn't he report it and why didn't he urge the local government to improve?
Facing Zhu Gaochi who was full of questions, Xia Yuanji sighed: "The reason why there are so many problems in the compilation of local yellow books and population statistics is not because they are bold and hide Dingkou, but because they ignore the population. "
The so-called Dingkou refers to a tax-paying adult male.
Zhu Gaochi didn't understand what Xia Yuanji meant.
Xia Yuanji explained: "The local accountants are not from the Imperial College, nor have they studied in a mathematics college. They have problems with their accounting methods. Even though the Imperial College sent some people to the local area to assist in the investigation, due to limited manpower, the positions Limited, it is difficult to lead local censuses. The missing population in Shanghai County census data is women, not human beings."
Zhu Gaochi's eyes widened and he said quickly: "Women? Aren't women citizens of the Ming Dynasty? Why do they dare to underestimate so many women?"
Xia Yuanji lamented.
When the imperial government calculated the local population, the most important thing was never the number of women, but the number of Dingkou, that is, the number of taxpayers.
Because the compilation of yellow books and tax collection are not for women, but for Dingkou. Dingkou is the core data. When making statistics, we will not pay too much attention to the number of women in a family. Even if you have Even if I married eight wives, the court could record one of them directly, because when paying taxes, they were calculated based on the number of households and acres of land, not the total number of people.
Similarly, when allocating acres of land, women did not have any share. The acres were allotted according to Dingkou. How many acres of land are there in one ding? No matter how many wives you have, you are still a ding, and the government should only give you so much land.
Zhu Gaochi suddenly realized that during the census of Shanghai County, a large number of women were ignored. Even in a family of five, women were not even counted and were directly listed as three or four.
No wonder the male-to-female ratio in Shanghai County is imbalanced and inconsistent with common sense. Emotions are the result of demographics that only favor males. If you add hundreds of thousands of women, this data is quite accurate.
But the ID card is different. The ID card is an identity card that everyone must have. Except for children under the age of 12, everyone else needs to apply for a ID card. This data is quite accurate.
Zhu Gaochi looked at Xia Yuanji depressedly: "Since Xia Shangshu knows the problem, why doesn't he send a document to the place to recheck the data?"
Xia Yuanji spread his hands: "Because the local area lacks enough talents. Mathematics became the main subject when I entered the Imperial College, and then entered the prefectural and social studies. It has only been a few years. The local government is good at statistics. It is considered good to have three people in the county government, but How can three people handle a survey of hundreds of thousands of people, not to mention that the data calculations in some villages are too vague, and it is a troublesome thing to re-create the records and re-calculate them."
Zhu Gaochi had a headache.
What Xia Yuanji said is true. Even if local officials understand ordinary arithmetic, they have no ability to make statistics and lack the tools and logic for statistics and analysis.
Zhu Gaochi looked at Xia Yuanji and asked, "If that's the case, then what's the point of our population statistics? We can't give the emperor a distorted data, right?"
Xia Yuanji looked at Zhu Gaochi with a smile: "So, you came to the Hubu Department."
Zhu Gaochi was so surprised that he finally realized that he had been "calculated" by Zhu Yunwen. It was not that he was unaware of the problems in the census of the Ministry of Household Affairs. He just needed a group of people to solve the problem. He, Zeng Shen and others were the number one. For the outstanding person in the college, entering the Department of Household Affairs was exactly what Zhu Yunwen wanted!
Even if he does not come to the Department of Household Affairs, Zhu Yunwen will definitely transfer personnel from the School of Mathematics to be responsible for clarifying and processing these data.
Zhu Gaochi shook his head helplessly: "If this is the case, the demographic data is still a general result, not a reality."
Xia Yuanji nodded in approval: "Without the support of a large number of talents, relying only on local governments, censors, and a small number of supervisors, it is impossible for the imperial court to grasp real data. Even if it gives a general data, it should be relatively Really, I believe in your ability and you will be able to give a reasonable result."
Zhu Gaochi understood.
The next task of the Department of Household Affairs must be to make a comprehensive sorting out based on the Yellow Book and combined with the photo album data, and add a coefficient to each data to ensure the relative objectivity of the population statistics.
Xia Yuanji looked at Zhu Gaochi's leaving figure, and the smile at the corner of his mouth slowly faded away. Local statistics were inaccurate, and the mandatory implementation of Zhaoshentie did provide a basis for population census, but the problem was that Zhaoshentie did not Covers children under twelve years old.
It doesn't matter. Random population checks and finding out the proportion of children can still be done locally. I believe it won’t be long before it becomes clear how many households and population there are in the Ming Dynasty.
