May 7, 2023 is Sunday. It is a rainy day in Pengshi, so it is not convenient to go out for fun. Zhang Sheng went to Yuan Sheng’s house to talk about the stock market............. ................................................................. ................................................................. ....
Zhang Sheng: The stock market this year is very special, especially since April, the daily trading volume of A shares has been between 1 and 1.2 trillion. Such a large trading volume was only seen in the bullish May of 2015............. Such a large trading volume Volume, why does the index keep fluctuating around 3200 points? No bull market?
Yuan Sheng: First, there are currently close to 5,200 A-share stocks, and about 30 new stocks are added every month. There are more and more stocks, and if they push them up collectively, more and more funds will be needed.
Second, in the village chief’s first speech after taking office, there was a sentence that indicated that the index would not rise significantly during his term. His sentence was: If the stock market does not rise sharply, it will not lead to a sharp fall... ....
Third, in the past, the A-share index experienced sharp ups and downs, causing institutions to suffer a lot. Now, institutions and managers have learned to be smart: the market (index) must be stable, but a bull market for individual stocks is entirely possible. Based on the above three factors, in recent years, the index has basically stabilized around 3,200 points, without outstanding performance. However, in the last wave of new energy market, leading stocks BYD rose 30 times and CATL rose 20 times. Many lithium battery stocks have risen 10-30 times.
In the AI market in the first four months of this year, Cambrian has increased by about 5 times, Baiwei Storage has increased by more than 5 times, Cambridge Technology has increased by more than 5 times, Zhongji InnoLight has increased by more than 3 times... ........Many AI-related prices have increased by 1-3 times.
Zhang Sheng: Yes, smart people have already seen that the biggest feature of A-shares in recent years is that the index is relatively stable and there are no big risks; while stocks that are in the hot spots (hot spots) can easily rise several times. things.
Yuan Sheng: Yes, A-shares are becoming more and more mature now. There is no need to worry about the index. It is basically stable. However, if you want to make money in A-shares, you must follow the hot spots and trends. Only then can you easily make money. Otherwise, if you buy non-hot stocks, or stocks that have gone out of fashion, it will be difficult to rise even if they were hot stocks before. For example, the new energy sector was a hot sector in the early years, and those who bought it made more money the longer they stayed. However, after 2023, the new energy sector was one of the most troubled sectors, and Xiong Tu slowly... ..... This is one of the characteristics of the stock market. Feng shui changes in turns.
Zhang Sheng: In the stock market, what kind of stocks are more likely to rise if you buy them?
Yuan Sheng: Tell me a true story, maybe you can get inspiration ------- When Su* Electric went on the market in 2004, it had only about 10 stores, and its annual net profit was about more than 100 million yuan (specific figures Forgot), so when it opened at 29.88 yuan on the first day it went on the market, everyone thought it was on the high side. I am a person who specializes in researching new stocks. I saw it rising, so I bought a small amount. After N days, I made a profit and liquidated my position.
When it was still 38 yuan, a friend from a securities company told me that his classmate at a gold medal company predicted that the stock would rise to 80 yuan. At that time, I didn’t quite believe it because there were also supermarket chains in my hometown. It is also a listed company. It has been listed for several years and has not increased in price. Why can Su* Electrical Appliances rise so sharply?
N months later, Su* Electric Appliances indeed rose to more than 80 yuan. A friend from the securities company said: His classmate at the gold company predicted that after 10 shares were given out for every 10 shares, the stock would become more than 40 yuan, and then slowly rise, and then rise again. To more than 80 yuan, it will be full! I still don’t quite believe it... because most people’s understanding is limited to the time and space they live and experience. In my hometown in the provincial capital, the first listed company of a supermarket chain opened a branch in 2002. I have been observing it for N years, and its stock price has not risen. Su* Electrical Appliances is also a chain, so it is impossible for it to rise so sharply!
The final result was that by August 30, 2007, Su* Electrical Appliances had risen to 1,200 yuan (restoration price), an increase of more than 40 times in more than four years. At this time, I was traveling in a certain city in the Northeast and saw that Suzhou Electric Appliances chain stores had opened all over the Northeast and all over China. At its peak, there were more than 5,000 chain stores and the annual net profit was more than 4 billion yuan.
The first A-share supermarket chain to be listed has few branches across the country. After its listing, its annual net profit did not increase much, so its stock price did not rise much either. Su* Electric Appliances has grown from more than 10 stores in the early days of listing to more than 5,000 stores, and its annual net profit has increased from more than 100 million yuan to more than 4 billion yuan. Therefore, it is reasonable that its stock price has increased 40 times.
Why can the people in the gold company predict in advance that Suzhou Electrical Appliances will continue to rise? I think: There is a high probability that he or a researcher from his company must have visited Su* Electrical Appliances for on-site investigation and knew in advance Su* Electrical Appliances’ plan to open more stores... At that time, China's economy was on the rise. At that time, Suzhou Electric was probably the only electrical appliance chain. Therefore, the more stores it opened, the greater its net profit would be, and its stock price would naturally rise. This is one of the codes of wealth in the stock market.
Zhang Sheng: Yes, net profits are rising every year, and the stock price is likely to rise every year. Look, Kweichow Moutai has increased more than 550 times since its listing, and its current price-to-earnings ratio is 26.4 times, which is not high. Look at Yunnan Baiyao, which has increased more than 1,500 times since its listing, and its current price-to-earnings ratio is also 17.4 times. Let’s look at Luzhou Laojiao, which has risen 1,459 times (the stock price has risen from 5.7 yuan to a restoration price of 8,321 yuan). Even if the current restoration price is 5,921 yuan, its price-to-earnings ratio is only 22.2 times.
Yuansheng: That is to say, these stocks have increased hundreds of times, and after more than 1,000 times, the price-to-earnings ratio is relatively reasonable, so their stock prices are relatively strong. However, Su* Electric Appliances has dropped from a peak annual net profit of more than 4 billion yuan to a loss of 178 million yuan in 2022. Therefore, its current stock price is only 2.10 yuan.
Zhang Sheng: Comparing these data and stock prices, we roughly understand some of the secrets of the rise and fall of A-share stock prices............. .................................................................
Yuan Sheng: Yes, there are rules for the rise and fall of stock prices. Who can understand the rules in advance? You should buy when the stock is still at a low level or in the early stages of rising, and you should sell when it rises to a certain level. Only by transferring risks (or returns) to others can you keep yourself a winner in the stock market.
Tomorrow is Monday, how will the stock market perform? Worth the wait.
