April 8, 2023 is a Saturday. Zhang Sheng came to Yuan Sheng’s house early to discuss the 10 new main board stocks that will be listed on the 1st next week............. ................................................................. ................................................................. .............
Zhang Sheng: Will the main force definitely speculate on the 10 new stocks next week?
Yuan Sheng: It will definitely be a hype!
Zhang Sheng: What is the necessary reason? Are all 10 going up?
Yuan Sheng: Among the 10 new stocks, some will rise and some will fall (either they will fall on the first day, or they will start to fall on the second day).
Why must the main force speculate on them? Let's take a look at the last time when new stocks on the main board could rise or fall casually on the first day?
The last new stock on the main board that could rise or fall at will on the first day was Zhejiang Shibao, which was listed on November 2, 2012. Subsequent new stocks listed on the main board adopted a 44% system on the first day.
The system of new stocks rising or falling by 44% on the first day caused good new stocks to rise directly by 44% on the first day, with almost no trading volume. From the second day on, large funds with VIP channels queued up at the daily limit (up 10%) every day. When buying stocks, after N consecutive daily limits, new stocks have risen to the limit. At this time, because the stock price is already too high, there is a 95% probability that there is no hype value, and then there will be a continuous decline...
Therefore, the 44% first-day system for new stocks has institutionally blocked the opportunity for major players to quickly and in large quantities buy good new stocks at low prices. Good new stocks basically have 12-32 daily limit before the daily limit can be opened and a large number of purchases can be made. At this time, it is estimated to be too high, and the smart main force has given up on it, at least temporarily. Wait for it to fall for a period of time, and it has fallen enough. Well, if it is really good and has a real future, the main force will slowly buy it at a low level.............
Precisely because of the 44% new stock system, there are very few opportunities for big bull stocks to appear in new stocks on the main board. Now, new stocks registered on the main board can rise or fall at will in the first five days, and a 10% rise or fall system is only implemented from the sixth day. In this way, from the perspective of the system, it provides the main force with the opportunity to quickly build a position at a relatively low level, suppress, wash the market, and pull up... Of course, the main force will use all 36 strategies such as attacking in the east and attacking in the west, pre-empting strikes, and striking later. Tactics, fight in new stocks.
There were A-shares in 1990. From 1990 to December 15, 1996, stocks rose or fell at will. Because the new shares were clean and had no lock-up, they became one of the most popular and most hyped varieties in these six years. Since December 16, 1996, all stocks have implemented a 10% rise or fall system (new stocks can rise or fall at will on the first day, and the 10% system will apply from the second day). From December 16, 1996 to November 2012 In the past 16 years since March 2, the main players have chosen to speculate on some new stocks, making them become big bull stocks.
Because new stocks can rise or fall at will on the first day, the main players usually use the following methods to speculate on their favorite new stocks: The first type of new stocks has good subject matter and good quality. If there is not much capital to admit it, the opening price will be relatively low. , the main force bought a large amount on the first day, pulled it up that day, and continued to pull it up on the second day. The hype increased by N times for a period of time, completing the first wave of speculation. There are very few new shares like this.
The second type is that the theme is good, the quality is good, and there are more funds that agree with it, causing it to open higher and move higher. On the second day, it opens at the limit (cannot sell). After 3 consecutive lower limits, it then reverses in a V-shape and then goes out. A big bull market. Guanhao Biotech is a representative example of this kind of stock.
The third model is: The theme is good, the quality is good, and there are more funds that agree with it, causing it to open higher, rush higher, and fall back...leading to all those who bought on the first day being locked up. After falling for N months, it slowly reversed in a V-shape and emerged from a bull market. Such a process takes N years, and most people cannot endure such a long period of time...
Most new stocks are ordinary stocks. No major players are interested in them. Their rise and fall can only follow the trend of the market. There are no rules at all. Smart money will give up on such new stocks... ...
Zhang Sheng: It goes up or down at will on the first day, but from the second day onwards there is a 10% up or down system, which is very convenient for the main force to launch a blitzkrieg. There are two types of blitzkrieg. The first is an upright blitzkrieg: the main force buys enough chips on the first day (the turnover rate of new shares on the first day is generally between 60-92%, and the main force can easily buy enough chips) , the opening price limit on the second day, or the rapid limit price... After that, there will be a wave of rising prices.
The second type is the feminine tactic, or the tactic of retreating in order to advance. That is to say, the main force did not buy enough chips on the first day, and it did not want to pull up immediately. It could sell at the opening of the second day, causing it to open at the limit, or open significantly lower. At this time, many retail investors will follow suit and sell. As soon as more people follow the trend, the new stocks will be defeated like a mountain and fall to the limit quickly. Countless orders are placed on the position of the limit... On the second and third days, the market will open at the limit.
After falling for a period of time, many retail investors became afraid of the new stock and thought that the new stock did not have a main force. In fact, the main force liked a more sinister method... This method is also called the method of washing the market at the lower limit and attracting stocks. After waiting for N months, we will look back and see: This is a big bull, buy it at a low price, and it will increase N times in a few months, or about a year. Can you find such a business in life? Only in the stock market does it often happen.
Yuansheng: the enemy. The main force is very good at studying and using the advantages and disadvantages of the system to formulate strategies and tactics. To put it bluntly, you can rise or fall casually on the first day, and then use the 10% system on the second day, either by using the upper limit or the lower limit, to achieve your own goals and play with the hands of most retail investors who do not know how to do it.
Zhang Sheng: The main players are full of talents. They use collective wisdom. Ordinary retail investors are not their opponents at all.............
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After chatting all morning, Zhang Sheng had something to do and had to leave... They agreed to discuss in detail tomorrow the specific strategies for the 10 registered new shares next week...
