April 5, 2023 is a Wednesday and also the Tomb Sweeping Day, so we have a day off. The stock market was closed because it was raining. Yuan Sheng and Zhang Sheng took their children to Erbao Children's Center to play. While the children were playing, Yuan Sheng and Zhang Sheng chatted about the stock market... ....
Zhang Sheng: In the past three months, the stock market has experienced sharp rises and sharp declines. What is the reason?
Yuan Sheng: Let’s take Lengwu’s stock, which has been rising the fastest, as an example. In the past three months, it started from 54.15 yuan and rose to 226.53 yuan yesterday, an increase of 4.18 times. It is still a loss-making stock. Maybe next year, or the day after tomorrow, because of the large demand for AI chips, it may not lose money. Maybe the profit will still be very considerable... In that case, its rise will be reasonable. Equivalent to a net profit of more than 100 million yuan in the initial stage of listing of *Ning Electric Co., Ltd., and a net profit of more than 4 billion yuan three years after its listing. Therefore, its stock price has increased more than 30 times. Who could have known three years in advance that the net profit of *Ning Electrical Appliances would increase dozens of times? No one can know in advance.
By the same token, after 2-3 years, will the net profit of Lengwu stock skyrocket? Or continue to lose money? It will take 2-3 years to see the answer. Logical reasoning: The net profit of Lengwu stock should have skyrocketed in 2-3 years. Therefore, it makes sense for large funds to choose it as one of the leading AI stocks. This is the reason why it has risen 4.18 times.
Yuansheng continued: Look at Guneng stock again. Its net profit in 2021 will increase by 2923% compared with the previous year. It is expected that the net profit in 2022 will increase by 137--169% compared with the previous year. The first day of listing will open. 63.20 yuan, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 15 times. Look at these numbers for a typical low P/E, high growth stock. However, these data represent the past, not the future.
Yuansheng went on to say: In January 2021, the domestic price of lithium carbonate was around 60,000 yuan (1,000 kilograms), and it would rise to 600,000 yuan by early December 2022. Therefore, in the early 2-3 years, the price of lithium during the product rise stage The stock has risen 5-15 times.
Currently, the price of lithium carbonate has dropped to 195,000 yuan, so Guneng's stock has also dropped from 63.20 yuan to 40.75 yuan.
Zhang Sheng: I understand. No wonder there is such a joke on the Internet: Full position in new energy stocks in 2023 is one of the major mistakes in life.
Yuan Sheng took over the topic, please read this message:
*Sila may enter the "100,000-200,000 yuan" price range in which *Yadi has pricing power.
On April 4, according to 36Kr, Tesla is planning a grand production capacity layout for its new low-priced model. This model can be regarded as a small Model Y and plans to achieve 4 million units in the future. annual production capacity. Among them, the North American super factory will bear a production capacity of 2 million vehicles, and the Berlin factory in Germany and the Shanghai Lingang factory will each bear a production capacity of 1 million vehicles.
At present, China has not responded to this news. However, at the Tesla Investor Day event held on March 1 this year (Eastern Time), Tesla also said that Tesla's next-generation model will adopt a new production method, which will produce and spray parts simultaneously, and then Assembling in one go reduces assembly steps by 40% and manufacturing costs by 50%.
Can the reduction in manufacturing costs lead to the creation of low-priced Tesla models? Why does Tesla need to break into a lower price range?
*Sla’s “Cost Reduction Method”
* Tesla's vision for lower-priced models dates back three years.
In September 2020, at the Tesla Battery Day, Tesla announced the new 4680 battery developed by Tesla. At the same time, Tesla said that the emergence of this battery will make it possible to build self-driving electric vehicles priced at US$25,000.
It is understood that the 4680 battery refers to a battery with a diameter of 46mm and a height of 80mm. Tesla believes that a diameter of 46mm is the optimal solution to improve battery life and reduce costs. The 4680 battery adds silicon to the negative graphite, which also improves the energy density and charging speed of the battery. Coupled with technologies such as "poleless ears", it makes Battery costs have dropped significantly. Data shows that Tesla can reduce battery unit costs by 56% through 4680 innovative technology.
What is the current production progress of this battery? As of August 2022, *Slagarten Road Factory and Austin Gigafactory have started small batch production of 4680 batteries. By the end of 2022, the weekly output of 4680 battery packs at the Kato Road factory will have reached more than 1,000 units. In January this year, Tesla announced an investment of more than 3.6 billion US dollars to expand its Nevada factory, planning to expand the production of 4680 batteries by 100GWh, with a long-term goal of a total output of 1,000GWh. According to Tesla’s prediction, 2024 will be the “mass production milestone” for 4680 batteries. Year".
*Yadi Chairman *** recently said in a survey: "*Yadi has pricing power among product prices of 100,000-200,000 yuan."
Once Tesla launches a low-priced model, it will definitely enter the price range of 100,000 to 200,000 yuan where Yadi currently has an advantage, and compete more fiercely with Yadi.
Zhang Sheng: I understand. In order to compete, companies continue to cut prices. Net profits are getting smaller and smaller, and stock prices must be getting lower and lower. This is the rule.
Zhang Sheng: "Once you are trapped, you never know how to get out of the trap!" The private equity boss is bearish on AI! , this is the latest news, what do you think?
Yuan Sheng: In addition to attracting attention, it has no guiding significance for operation. After any stock reaches the top, it is all in vain and it is difficult to get out of the trap. Look at the stock king Moutai, after it peaked at 2627.88 yuan, it will be 1814 yuan more than 2 years later. In another 3 years? It will take 5 or 10 years to get rid of the problem? No one knows.
After Eastern Communications rapidly increased 10 times, it has peaked at 41.88 yuan. It has been more than 4 years and is currently at 11.37 yuan. How many years does it take to get over it?
On February 5, 2018, ICBC, the most stable blue-chip stock, fell all the way after seeing 10.15 yuan (resumption price). It has been falling for more than 5 years. It is currently 8.13 yuan (resumption price). When can it be resolved?
After NSFOCUS Technology was speculated 4-5 times higher by the main force, it reached 395.12 yuan (restoration price) on May 22, 2015. It has been almost 8 years since its launch and is currently at 133.32 yuan. When will it be able to unwind?
Yuan Sheng went on to say: In any industry or any stock, the more it rises, the more difficult it will be to get out of the trap after peaking. It is normal for many stocks to be stuck in a trap for 5 to 15 years. Only in the big bull market of 2007 (the index rose from 998 points to 6124 points), almost all stocks were unwound. Or the big bull stocks that were dominated by technology stocks in 2015, all technology stocks were unraveled.
Zhang Sheng: Has the hype of AI reached its peak?
Yuan Sheng: From the perspective of the AI industry, it has just started and it will take at least 3 to 10 years to mature. From the perspective of capital game, many large institutions are selling new energy stocks and slowly buying AI. Class stocks... It can be said that at this stage, AI stocks must be differentiated. In the days to come, AI stocks will either rise or fall... ..This process takes N years.
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After playing for a day, Yuan Sheng and Zhang Sheng took their families and drove home respectively...
PS: The stock prototype in the article is: (to be announced tomorrow.)
