February 26, 2023 was Sunday. Yuan Sheng was reviewing stocks at home. He heard the doorbell ringing. When he opened it, he saw that it was Zhang Sheng...
After Zhang Sheng entered the door: The tea sent by the mail from his hometown is truly organic tea, and no pesticides have been used. I drank it, it was pretty good, I’ll give you some...
Yuan Sheng: Okay, tea leaves from different places have their own characteristics. My family grows them themselves without pesticides. This is really good...
Zhang Sheng: People who trade in stocks want to know, is stock selection important? Or is timing important?
In Yuansheng, stock selection and timing are both important. For example, Kweichow Moutai has been the top long-term stock of choice for A-shares over the past 20 years. In the past 20 years, whoever chose Kweichow Moutai has made more money the longer it stays. It started from 25.88 yuan on September 23, 2003 (this is the restoration price. If it is not reinstated, it is 20.71 yuan), and has risen to February 2021. 13593.01 yuan on the 18th (this is the restoration price. If the rights are not restored, it will be 2627.88 yuan).
In just over 18 years, Kweichow Moutai’s stock has increased 525 times. Think about it for yourself, how many businesses in the world can earn 525 times in 18 years? It can be said that there is almost none, or very few.
Why can Kweichow Moutai continue to rise? The main reason is that its net profit has risen sharply every year. Even if it rises to the current 1,788 yuan (the restoration price is 9,688 yuan), its price-to-earnings ratio is only 37 times, which is not high and is within a reasonable range.
Yuan Sheng remembers: Around 2010 (or 2009), you could buy Feitian Moutai for more than 300 yuan a bottle at any time in Pengshi (currently 2600-2800 yuan a bottle). The retail price is always much higher than the ex-factory price. For example, the current ex-factory price of Feitian Moutai is 998 yuan (the retail price is 2,600--2,800 yuan). One can imagine: I don’t know how many times the ex-factory price of Feitian Moutai has increased from 2009 to now?
In short, every time the price increases, Kweichow Moutai's profits increase significantly. This is the main reason why it has increased from September 2003 to February 2021!
Many people do not recognize Mr. Lin*. When CCTV interviewed him in 2006, he directly opened his stock account. People across the country saw that his account earned more than 100 million yuan in profits from Kweichow Moutai stocks alone. If you think about it, in 2006, how many Chinese individuals could make more than 100 million yuan in their own accounts from one stock?
At that time, he said in front of the camera: Kweichow Moutai is the only A-share stock (even in China) whose products are in short supply. If I don’t buy such a stock, what should I buy? He also said: He will always stick to Kweichow Moutai... Even now, ordinary people can't buy Feitian Moutai at the ex-factory price (998 yuan)! If you have the ability to buy it, countless liquor stores will recycle it for 2,200-2,400 yuan, and you will make a lot of money.
The first brother of Kweichow Moutai is usually at the department level. For using the ex-factory price for personal gain, two first brothers have been imprisoned in the past 10 years. This shows how attractive it is to be able to buy the ex-factory price.
To be fair, at the low level, or in the process from 25.88 yuan to 13593.01 yuan, you had never participated in the speculation of Kweichow Moutai, so your stock selection was not top-notch! Let’s think about it: in the process from 20.71 yuan to 300 yuan, Kweichow Moutai’s stock was considered low. We didn’t buy stocks that were not suitable for such products. Instead, we specifically bought stocks of companies with a surplus of products. Can we Don't want to take a condom?
There are currently more than 5,000 A-share stocks, 95% of which are surplus stock products. If you are very good, go directly to their sales department, and they will be happy to give you a commission of 2-5%... .If you help them sell 100 million yuan every year, you can get 2 to 5 million yuan. If you can sell 1 billion yuan, you can get 20-50 million yuan. You are the sales hero of the company, and at the end of the year, they will rate you as...
Choosing stocks whose products are in short supply is a correct stock selection; from February 2016 to January 2018, in less than 2 years, Kweichow Moutai stock rose 3.5 times. Buying stocks during this period is a correct stock selection; November 2018 By early February 2021, Kweichow Moutai's stock had risen 4.7 times. If you buy during this period, Moutai stock will rise very fast. This is also a correct stock selection during this period.
Zhang Sheng nodded in agreement: If you choose stocks correctly, you can generally guarantee that you will not lose money. At best, it will take a little longer to make a profit. On the premise of picking stocks correctly and choosing the right time, you can make huge profits quickly! Therefore, stock selection and timing are both important.
Yuan Sheng: Let me tell you a story, and my understanding of stock selection and timing will be deeper------------
Everyone says "risk and return are directly proportional", but actually this statement is wrong!
There is a huge variable between risk and return, and this variable is called ability.
Take tightrope walking for example. For people like us who have never practiced before, tightrope walking is a very risky thing. But for an acrobat, everyone will think it is too simple and there is no risk.
Li Ka-shing once said: "Others say that I am good at taking risks, but they are actually wrong. I have never taken any risks in my entrepreneurial life."
Why would he say that?
When he was young, Li Ka-shing sold plastic flowers. He has worked in other people's factories and knows how to produce plastic flowers, how to sell them, how much money can be earned, and other important factors in doing business. Moreover, the production and sales he hired were better than the factories he had worked in before. How could he not make money? We are not afraid of not knowing the goods, but we are afraid of comparing goods.
Later, when Li Ka-shing invested in real estate, some people said he was taking a risk, but he still felt it was not a risk. Because Li Ka-shing started researching those targets in advance a few years before investing in real estate. He knew very well how much they were worth, so he just waited for the best price to enter, not taking risks.
If you also adopt Li Ka-shing’s method to buy stocks, is it still a risk?
Zhang Sheng said excitedly: That's great! This story is so inspiring for our future stock trading! For example, it is safe for us to drive at a speed of 30-60 kilometers per hour in urban areas, and it is safe to drive at a speed of 80-120 kilometers per hour on the highway. As for professional drivers, even on mountain roads, they dare to drive at speeds above 200 hours (the highest speed is 300-400 hours on racing tracks). Do we dare to buy 200--400 speed? Definitely not! Otherwise, an accident may happen at any time!
So: Choosing different stocks in the stock market depends on people.
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After lunch, Zhang Sheng went home...Tomorrow is Monday. What changes are waiting for Yuan Sheng and Zhang Sheng in the stock market?
