After saying that, Wang Xiaolie drank a glass of wine, then lowered his head to eat the food to calm down his excitement.
It's very exciting to make a strategic decision like this and have faith that the strategy will succeed. Zhao Gou requested that the east and west fronts launch attacks at the same time. It was not until today that Wang Xiaolie firmly believed that he was sure of victory on the west front.
The others were drinking and eating, thinking, and discussing in low voices from time to time.
Such a strategy not only places high demands on Jiang Min's troops, but also places high demands on the troops on the Jinzhou front line. How many troops are deployed in Jinzhou, how they are stationed, and how they move are all related to the overall situation. How many troops are needed in Longde Mansion, when and how to move are also crucial.
After resting for a while, Wang Xiaolie stood up, raised his glass and said, "Let's have a drink. Next, I will explain in detail a grand detour strategy and what issues to pay attention to. What should you do and how should you do it."
Drink it all with everyone. Wang Xiaolie put down his wine glass and said: "A few days ago, the officials issued an edict and ordered me to pacify Guanzhong. In the autumn, the east and west roads will march northward at the same time. The officials on the east route personally marched and commanded Han Shizhong, Zhang Jun, Liu Guangshi, Yue Fei and other troops. In addition to the central imperial army in the imperial court, we will take the Huaiyang Army, Xuzhou, and Yingtian Prefecture. On the west route, we will advance north from Jinzhou and Longde Prefecture and take Taiyuan. If successful, the situation between us and the Jin Army will completely change."
"We know that the Jin Army has always been divided into two groups, the East and the West, and even two privy offices, Datong Prefecture and Yanjing Prefecture. The leader of the West Route Army is Nianhan, and the most important general under him is Gushen, and Yin Shuke and others . At the local level, there are Gao Qingyi, Xiao Qing and other party members. The East Route Army was originally headed by Yi Libu, but after Yi Libu died, he was led by Youliduo. His generals, such as Wu Shu and Ta Lan, were mostly members of the clan. Officials The so-called Northern Expedition actually means using the Jianghuai armies to attack the Eastern Route Army and the Puppet Qi, and using us to attack the West Route Army. We destroyed the West Route Army's Balisu and Salihe armies, and now their Jurchen army It is far from what it used to be. However, Nianhan has great power, and both Liao and the Central Plains are under his control. To attack the Western Route Army, we must consider Yelu Yujian's surrender of the Khitan Army."
Zhang Jun said: "Whose orders do the puppet Qi troops listen to? In terms of the Jurchens, do they count as the East Route Army or the West Route Army?"
Wang Xiaolie said: "When the Puppet Qi Dynasty was first established, the East Route Army's laziness played a vital role. At that time, it was natural to listen to the East Route Army. However, later, Nianhan was in charge of matters in the Central Plains, so We have defected to the Western Route Army again. As we attack north, we must guard against the counterfeit Qi attacking from behind."
Seeing that everyone was silent, Wang Xiaolie added: "Since last year, the gold master Wu Qimai has been seriously ill - that is, he has suffered a stroke and has difficulty moving. Now there are endless debates within the Jin Kingdom about who should be crowned prince, especially in the east and west. The two groups are fighting fiercely. The Northern Expedition at this time can be said to be a good opportunity."
"I decided to strengthen Jiang Min's first army and expand it appropriately. In this Shaanxi battle, we obtained a large number of war horses, which can strengthen the cavalry force. Jiang Min's men were expanded into three cavalry regiments and formed a separate army. The remaining five regiments were not organized. Change. In addition, each regiment strengthens a cavalry battalion to increase mobility. Under the division headquarters are an engineering regiment, an artillery regiment, three baggage regiments, plus three cavalry regiments. The remaining reconnaissance battalions, communications battalions, guard battalions, Medical camps and so on remain unchanged.”
Jiang Min heard this and said hurriedly: "If that's the case, my division will be too huge!"
Wang Xiaolie said: "The attack on Datong Prefecture is no different from an ordinary combat mission. The infantry regiments below require each regiment to have the ability to fight alone and be able to occupy the prefecture and county. And your division must be able to attack Datong alone. And carry out the occupation mission. Your total strength is about 45,000 people."
Hearing this number, the other people couldn't help but be shocked. The total strength of 45,000 men is much more than that of a division.
Wang Xiaolie continued: "We have made such a strategic decision. In addition to making various internal preparations, we also need to strategically deceive the Jin Army. Judging from the current situation, the Jin Army does not believe that Ningwuguan can pass the army. There is no Defense. The strategic deception of the Jin Army must be carried out around this point. Specifically, in the Ningwuguan area, the surrounding area must be completely controlled. Except for the army and road construction personnel, everyone else must be controlled. Internal management , the information cannot be leaked. It is up to Jiang Min and Zhang Jun to decide what to do."
Jiang Min said: "It is not easy to prevent the news from being leaked at all."
Wang Xiaolie said: "We should have a clear understanding of what this world is like. The world is not made up of points, lines, and surfaces. One thing cannot be successful if I do it, or if I don't do something, it will not be successful." Success. The world is probabilistic and conforms to statistical laws. Statistical laws are not accidents or coincidences, but the way the world is made up. When we do things, we must think with statistical laws, not the previous way of thinking."
"Strategic deception, to put it bluntly, may or may not succeed. If you draw a picture, you can draw a curve based on the probability. You should have such a curve in your mind now. The probability of success is How high, how high the probability of failure is, you know in your heart. Your job is to make the probability of success higher and the probability of failure lower. You must understand in your heart that no matter what you do, the probability of failure always exists. However, this is by no means a reason to slack off at work. We must try our best to make the probability of success higher and the probability of failure lower.”
Hearing this, Jiang Min's heart trembled. This is not the first time that Wang Xiaolie has taught officials to learn statistics, nor is it the first time that he has talked about the probability of events. Officials slowly began to understand, but when analyzing things, they often forgot.
This is the understanding of the world, which is epistemology. The epistemology we often talk about follows the tradition inherited from Europe, and mainly talks about the differences and struggles between materialism and idealism, and the differences and struggles between agnosticism and agnosticism. A discourse system has been formed, and it is difficult to break free from it when it comes to thinking.
Of course Wang Xiaolie doesn't have to follow these rules, they are of no use to him. Europeans talk about epistemology like that, maybe their history is like that, and their understanding of the world is like that. China has different historical traditions and of course has a different understanding of the world.
Traditionally in China, there is no opposition between materialism and idealism, or between agnosticism and agnosticism. To a large extent, this is a philosophical reflection of monotheistic ideas. Therefore, when looking at a thought, you have to go to the end of time and see if there is a god standing there. Traditional Chinese thought is that there is no god standing at the end of time, either Tao or Heaven.
What Wang Xiaolie is concerned about is whether the world is continuous or quantized? Is it probabilistic or deterministic? Does this world follow certain objective laws or statistical laws?
After careful observation and much thinking, Wang Xiaolie's answer is that the world is quantized and probabilistic, and follows certain statistical laws. Rather than being continuous or deterministic. The so-called objective laws are, in most cases, just special cases. For example, Newton's law is correct if people are on the earth. When humans look into the depths of the sky, something is not right. Just like the theory of relativity, when humans study gravity, it is correct. And when people study microscopic quanta, it is consistent with quantum mechanics.
Human beings have always hoped to establish a physical theory that can summarize all physical phenomena. This may be unrealistic, and the so-called truth may not exist in this world. The real world may only follow statistical laws rather than general objective laws.
For example, how much does a weight weigh? Using different scales and different measurement units will produce different results. But the weight is there and has a definite weight. The world that humans know and the world they describe are not the same thing.
This is especially true of human society. It’s not that our understanding is insufficient, it’s not that our knowledge isn’t enough, or there aren’t enough methods, it’s that our understanding of the world is flawed. The existence of individual phenomena and the occurrence of some unexpected things are not due to accidents, but because the world conforms to statistical laws.
If the world is really like this, the government's governance of society will be different. We no longer have to formulate rules and regulations based on an ideal society, but have to make compromises under social reality. We no longer think that society has not developed to that point and has to compromise on its ideals. Rather, we believe that society is inherently like this, and we need to find out the statistical laws of a society like this. The focus of governance is statistical rules, not specific things. Also understand that although society conforms to statistical laws, there are always surprises. Dealing with the relationship between regularity and surprise is an important ability for officials.
In the early days of human society, rule was inseparable from gods. There is a kind of person who communicates between gods and humans, called a witch. As long as the shaman completely abandons his personal thoughts and accepts the will of God, his rule will be relatively stable. When the witch discovered that God's will was vague, between existence and non-existence, and added his own thoughts, his rule gradually collapsed. The shaman later became an official, and later on, they did exactly what they wanted.
Officials are actually a kind of person between witches and humans. On one side are ideals and regulations, on the other side are your own desires. Between ideals and desires, it actually conforms to statistical laws. Some people prefer ideals, while others prefer their own desires. Wang Xiaolie would rather believe that being ideal to the extreme, or in other words, what an ideal official should be like, is a god. But when the desire to favor oneself reaches its extreme, it should not exist.
When he returned to Luoyang this time, Wang Xiaolie had to change his governance methods and follow his own understanding. But now, the most important thing is the war against Jin. How to prepare and win the battle in Taiyuan.
(End of chapter)
