Du Ye was silent after hearing this, and after a while he said, "Why do you think so?"
At present, PHS is entering a period of rapid development. It is experiencing exponential growth and explosive growth. Not only the consumption of low- and middle-income groups, but also high-income mobile phone users have one.
Why?
Because it is not only cheap, but also fashionable, and more importantly, convenient.
It can be bound to your home landline and you can make and receive calls at any time without worrying about missing calls.
In this era, landline phones are a more important means of communication.
The mobility of landline phones is a function that cannot be replaced by mobile phones.
Coupled with the fact that since last year, the government has continuously released favorable policies to support the development of PHS, its rapid growth has no longer been hindered, and it has finally ushered in viral and exponential growth!
Landslides and tsunamis attacked the city and territory, defeating the two major operators China Mobile and China Unicom. Their stock prices plummeted, forcing the Minister of Information Industry to come forward to support them and stop the decline.
With the momentum at its peak, everyone is optimistic about the future of PHS. After all, there are more than one billion people in China, which means there is a market of hundreds of billions. This cake is terrifying!
Many dealers, including Du Ye, made a lot of money from this feast and felt that their future was limitless.
Not everyone can afford a mobile phone, but almost everyone can afford a PHS!
The current price is only a few hundred yuan per unit, and it can be even lower in the future.
Even rural people can use it if they grit their teeth.
Therefore, Liang Jiangtao’s words sound alarmist to anyone. Doesn’t this prevent people from making money?
Du Ye stared at Liang Jiangtao, wanting to hear what he would say next.
"I wouldn't tell you this if you weren't a brother. You have to take a long-term view. PHS can make quick money, but it has a weak foundation. It can conquer cities and territories in a short period of time, but it won't last long!"
"But China has a huge mobile communications market, especially in towns and rural areas. It is still an uncultivated virgin land. It cannot be used now. But with the current speed of economic development, it will definitely be affordable in less than two years. How many mobile phones are there? One unit costs a thousand yuan, and the monthly consultation fee is more than a hundred at least. Those farmers can never afford it! There is a huge price gap that is difficult to bridge, and this is also the lifeline of PHS! What do you say?" Du Ye said.
His company's marketing department has spent a lot of time doing research in the past few months, and just gave him a report yesterday. The conclusion is that the number of PHS users will exceed one billion in the next ten years!
Their company must sprint all out to seize the market, and is prepared to invest a lot of money in developing its own brands and pursue a long-term development strategy.
Liang Jiangtao shook his head. He almost knew what Du Ye was thinking now. In fact, this was human nature. Anyone in Du Ye's position would probably bet on PHS. After all, it seemed to have too much potential!
But if the market was so easy to grasp, no one would go bankrupt.
Who would have thought that the glory of PHS would be short-lived and would disappear completely in just a few years.
"Do you know Moore's Law?"
"I think I've heard of Moore's Law." Du Ye frowned and thought for a moment. He interacted with people in the information circle every day, so he must have heard of it, but he couldn't tell what it was.
"Moore's Law was proposed by the founder of Intel. The general idea is that when the price remains unchanged, the number of components that can be accommodated on an integrated circuit will double approximately every 18-24 months, and the performance will also increase. Doubling. In other words, the computer performance that each dollar can buy will more than double every 18-24 months."
"Of course, not just computers, but mobile phones too!"
“The main significance of this law is to reveal to us the speed of information technology progress!”
"Fast, fast, faster than the speed of light!"
"Mobile phones are very expensive now, but in a few years, they will be updated for two or even three generations, and the price will drop several times! By then, who will buy a PHS phone?"
Liang Jiangtao said slowly.
Du Ye sat up straight and opened his eyes wide. If it is true as Liang Jiangtao said, then if you invest heavily in PHS, wouldn't you be seeking death?
"Can a mobile phone be cheaper than a PHS?" Du Ye still couldn't believe it intuitively.
"That's for sure! Do you know the cost of PHS? How much higher can a mobile phone be? The materials are still those materials, and the base station wires are all spent by the state. It is only a matter of time before a hundred-yuan phone appears. If you think about it, you can only call Who will want a PHS phone with local calls and poor signal quality then?"
In a few years, people will become accustomed to the 100-yuan phone, senior phone, and free mobile phone with prepaid phone fee. Not only will making and receiving calls be free, but long-distance and roaming fees will gradually be cancelled. After that, no one will even make calls, and all voice calls will be made through WeChat. The story of phone calls and traffic will once again occupy the main stage of information communications, but no one dared to think about it in 2002. It was almost like a myth, so Liang Jiangtao didn’t mention it much.
This is the huge advantage of time travellers!
"What about the landline? PHS can be bound to the landline! How can the mobile phone solve this problem?" Du Ye was still trying to find the advantages of PHS.
"Landline phones? Landline phones will also disappear from the stage of history along with PHS! When the time comes, everyone will have a mobile phone. Why do they need a landline phone?"
Liang Jiangtao's words were like a bolt of lightning, instantly illuminating Du Ye's mind.
It was like an enlightenment!
These... are actually obvious things, why didn't I think of them?
Du Ye was shocked!
After Liang Jiangtao said it, Du Ye understood that no proof was needed at all. These were true and would really happen.
Liang Jiangtao is not an alarmist!
An ordinary person might still question it, but Du Ye is in this circle and has a strong business acumen, so he understands what Liang Jiangtao is talking about and what is right. The key is for someone to wake him up he.
No wonder, no wonder Huawei is busy spinning off this business as soon as possible. He and a bunch of small and medium-sized companies have taken advantage of it. They are still wondering. After thinking about it for a long time, they still can’t figure out why they can’t make money even though they have it?
It turns out that people have seen through this and know that this has no future and is a waste of time, so the strong man cuts off his wrist.
"Lao Du, you are now in the field of communications and cannot rely on traditional business thinking to think about problems. Why, because this is a new thing and it is developing too fast! It's like driving. If you drive with the mindset of a bicycle, sooner or later you will crash. thing!"
"It's normal for this industry to go bankrupt! No matter how big or awesome it is, if you don't seize an opportunity, or you make a wrong bet, the collapse will happen in an instant."
Liang Jiangtao thought of Nokia, which had always been the leader in the mobile phone industry. The quality of its machines was known to everyone around the world. However, after the emergence of smartphones, it did not seize the opportunity to transform in time and went bankrupt within a few years.
There is also Kodak, the absolute leader in the film industry, but digital cameras appeared, and then mobile phones were equipped with high-definition cameras...
Some people say that until the day it went bankrupt, the quality of the film produced by Kodak was unspeakable. They did nothing wrong, but they still lost and were buried by the times, enriching the corpus of the times.
Is this a joke?
Or a tragedy?
"Then what should we do?" Du Ye broke out in cold sweat.
"Don't panic. There will be no problem in this industry in the short term. There will be at least two or three years of rapid development. During this time, we will step up sales and make money! But after this stage, we must decisively stop. I guess it will be around 2004."
"Remember, never invest in R&D and production. This is a dead end. You invest tens of millions, and as soon as you get the production line out, the PHS will be cold. There will be no place to cry!"
