Netherlands, Feldhoman.
The headquarters of ASML, one of the world's largest semiconductor equipment manufacturers, is located in this city.
As a company that provides comprehensive key lithography equipment to chip manufacturers around the world, ASML’s status in the world’s semiconductor industry cannot be overstated. The world needs ASML, just like the Internet cannot do without basic computer rooms all over the world.
At this time, ASML's CEO Lunin Chelsman was sitting in the office watching an interview video about him.
"...Yes, it is impossible for China to build a photolithography machine independently of the rest of the world. After all, this is a very systematic project."
Seeing this, Lu Ning was a little dissatisfied.
These damn American media always quote things out of context.
When he was interviewed, he clearly said that the lithography machine is the crystallization of the wisdom of all mankind. It is the most powerful proof of global marketization.
This view is not wrong.
For example, for ASML's lithography machine, the core light source supplier is cymer from the United States, the lens is from Zeiss, Germany, the ultraviolet light box is from Japan, and many precision components are from the local KmwEGroup...
Well, actually it’s not wrong to just take this sentence.
It is indeed impossible for China to produce high-performance lithography equipment on its own.
There cannot be such a powerful country on this planet.
Lunin Chelsman shook his head, and then moved the mouse to close the news pushed by NBC.
To be honest, from a purely business perspective, no one is willing to give up China's huge market with great potential.
A quarter of the world's population is no joke.
Not to mention that orders from China once accounted for 25% of ASML's total annual revenue.
But what could he do?
Some restrictions can only be said to be powerless.
"Dong dong dong..."
A knock on the door at the right time made Lunin Chelsman put away the irritability in his heart and said casually: "Come in."
The office door was pushed open and the secretary stood in front of the door: "Mr. Chelsman, Mr. Brink hopes..."
"Okay, Lu Ning, I have something very important to talk to you about."
Before the secretary could finish speaking, a tall figure walked directly past the secretary and walked into the office.
Lu Ning raised his hand and waved, and the secretary closed the door knowingly.
There is no way to care about this person's impoliteness.
Schneider Brinker, the company's president and chief technology officer, also serves on the board of directors.
In terms of status in the company, the two of them are almost the same.
"Coffee?" Lu Ning asked as he picked up the American coffee on the table.
"I don't have to, but I suggest you take a sip quickly, because after hearing this, you may not be in the mood to drink." Schneider said with a serious expression.
"Oh?" Lu Ning put away his relaxed expression and asked in surprise: "What's the matter?"
Schneider took a deep breath and then said: "We suspect that the Chinese have developed a new large-scale lithography equipment, and this equipment has entered the testing stage. Even if its performance is not as good as our NxE:3600d, But the gap may not be big. Of course, its performance may be comparable to NxE:3800E, I mean the comprehensive performance of process, energy efficiency and production capacity."
Lu Ning tilted his head, then raised his hands, and looked up and down at Schneider Brinker sitting in front of him with very confused eyes. After feeling that the company's chief technology officer didn't seem to be joking, he shook his head. Shaking his head, he said seriously: "Schneider, it's already August, and there are still eight months until next year's April Fool's Day."
"This is not an April Fool's joke." Schneider shook his head.
"But this is impossible! There is no evidence to prove that there is technology in this world that can surpass ours!" Lu Ning swallowed subconsciously and emphasized.
"Of course, my thoughts were no different from yours an hour ago. Okay, is the computer on?" Schneider pointed to the laptop in front of Lu Ning.
Lu Ning directly raised his hand and pushed the computer over and said, "Cast the screen."
Soon the big screen opposite Lu Ning lit up, and then he quickly entered an animation-like interface. Above was a circular track, around which were neatly distributed machines, and below was a console.
Lu Ning glanced at Schneider in surprise.
But Schneider ignored him and just operated step by step.
Soon the picture started to move. Countless particles in the circular orbit began to rotate rapidly under the guidance of the light beam. Then, rays of radiation were pointed directly at the machines. By adjusting the control panel, the speed of the particle rotation could be controlled. At the same time, Controls the intensity of radiant light sources.
After watching quietly for a minute, Lu Ning asked: "What do you mean?"
"This is a dynamic simulation that the engineering department produced from a paper published in the journal 6 hours ago. As you can see, high-intensity light sources are stabilized by particle-accelerated radiation, and then these light sources are used to perform lithography. According to the data analysis in the paper, its maximum exposure capability can even reach 28mJ per square centimeter, and its wafer production capacity is estimated to be between 160-185 wafers per hour. Of course, this number must be multiplied by 28." Schneider said solemnly explained.
Lu Ning's mouth was half-opened, as if he wanted to say something, but no sound came out.
Schneider did not stop his narration and continued: "More than that, its control system is very complete, which also makes it more flexible during processing. You only need to input different programs and parameters to produce different results." Light sources use different processes to produce different chips. In other words, this huge equipment is equivalent to a large photolithography factory. It is also a photolithography factory that produces according to different needs. In other words, this system You can then switch between EUV and dUV. Both high-end and low-end chips can be produced."
As Schneider finished speaking, the office began to become quiet.
Lu Ning frowned, probably digesting the meaning of Schneider's words just now.
If all this is true, it means that if China really puts this large-scale equipment into production, it will quickly replace ASML's irreplaceable position in the semiconductor industry.
In the short term, the consequence is that they will lose the Chinese market forever. In particular, China no longer even needs their low-end lithography machines.
If we take a longer-term view, when China masters the ability to mass produce, it seems that it will not be as simple as losing the Chinese market.
So after a long silence, Lu Ning asked a very serious question: "Have you conducted a cost estimate? If this judgment is true, how much does such a set of equipment cost?"
Schneider shrugged and said: "According to our estimates, the cost should be about 3 to 3.5 billion U.S. dollars. But you should know that if all components are produced in China, the price may need to be increased. 70 to 20% off. That’s 2.1 to 2.8 billion US dollars. If China masters the ability to mass produce in three to five years..."
Some things don’t need to be said too clearly.
Huaxia's products with mass production capabilities are now very popular in the international market.
Not to mention that the semiconductor market has its own peculiarities. Once China overcomes the problem of lithography machines, it will definitely be a double blow to ASML.
Let's put it this way, if China's locally produced chips can become self-sufficient, and even have the ability to export, it is foreseeable that the sales, turnover and profits of ASML's current major customers will all plummet.
Reduced sales also mean reduced demand for upstream equipment. In the future, lithography machines will no longer be sold, and profits will naturally decrease accordingly.
Lithography machines are also an industry that requires continuous investment in high R&D. Reduced profits mean there is no money to invest in R&D, and the future is gloomy.
Of course, this may not happen immediately, but both the president and CEO have a long-term vision. Isn't this what ASML will experience in the next ten years?
Unless ASML can quickly iterate its products and develop a photolithography machine that breaks through the nanometer limits, it will once again gain the first-mover advantage.
But this is obviously an almost impossible task.
If you can break through, break through already!
Lu Ning's brain felt confused for a moment.
However, the next moment, Schneider spoke again: "Not only that, the Chinese also published another paper in science, which provides an idea for chip manufacturing. Using two-dimensional materials combined with semi-metallic bismuth can achieve extremely low The resistance increases the transmission current, almost approaching the quantum limit. According to the data given in the paper, this material can already control the thickness of 1 to 3 atoms. According to our calculations, this paper is also very likely to be realized. Now study The institute has begun to try to replicate this result. But it is hard to say whether this direction can be industrialized."
Lu Ning suddenly felt a little unbearable.
Yesterday, when he was being interviewed, he told the camera that it was impossible for the Chinese to break away from the world and build a lithography machine alone.
Just this morning, he was worried about the media taking things out of context, and then he heard these two "good news" one after another.
What happened to this world? Murphy's Law and Moore's Law, want to give him some color at the same time?
Really, it’s so ridiculous!
The brain's thinking ability almost stopped at this moment. After a while, Lu Ning looked at the company's chief technology officer with a strange expression and asked: "Are you 100% sure that the Chinese people have started these experiments?"
What he didn't expect was that Schneider hesitated for a moment, then shook his head and said: "No."
"Ah?" Lu Ning suddenly felt that it was dawn again...
"You should first take a look at the company's internal technical discussion forum." Schneider did not force an explanation, but quickly turned off the animation demonstration just now, and entered the company's forum on the computer specifically for engineering and technical personnel to communicate.
Sure enough, it was full of posts discussing this topic.
In particular, there is a comprehensive post titled Discussion on the Possibility of China's New Lithography Technology, with more than 3,000 related discussions.
Click on it to see the latest statement.
"I just re-modified the parameters and ran it. Unfortunately, the component library was not described in detail in the paper, but the results given by the computer are not much different from the data in the paper, about 20%. More detailed parameters are needed to make a determination."
"Don't think about it. If this is true, it is impossible for the Chinese to give more detailed data."
"Is it possible that this is really derivation through theory? After all, I have never heard any relevant news before. You must know that for such a huge design and project, there are too many engineering problems that need to be solved, and every solution can be written as a patent. , but I just searched the patent database and did not find any relevant technical information."
"I hope this is just a theory, but how do you explain the data and the control system that are almost impossible to falsify?"
"Yes, we have verified all the data many times, and I believe that someone has verified it before us. If the results are ridiculous, it is impossible to publish them."
"There is a possibility that the information has been blocked. The Chinese people have no intention of protecting it through patents. They did not release the paper until now when the laboratory is almost successful in verifying it."
"As a reminder, the author of this paper is a mathematician, the mathematician who proposed the coupled causal framework of group theory. Moreover, the paper has his name, and only his name. Generally speaking, the list of authors of this type of paper is even It’s longer than the abstract, so I don’t feel weird at all.”
"Putting aside the technical discussion, this is definitely the most outrageous thing I have ever seen in my life, bar none."
…
After showing part of the discussion, Schneider said in a low voice: "Understand? Now we are not sure about anything, because all the evidence we have is only two papers. We need more evidence or intelligence to make a more accurate judgment. .”
Lu Ning was silent for a while and said, "It seems I need to call the Americans first."
Schneider nodded.
…
In fact, it was not just the big guys in the Western semiconductor industry who were troubled by Qiao Ze's two papers.
When the news spread back to China at the speed of light, many people in China were also filled with questions.
A successful joke usually cannot let go of one's own people.
This is not to say that scientific research leaders are all night owls. The main reason is that many foreign colleagues do not follow martial ethics, encounter problems that they cannot figure out, and do not care about the time difference. An international long-distance call to China has disturbed the dreams of many people.
For example, Academician Zhong Chengming of the China Institute of Microelectronics, who has been leading a team to study the light source problem of lithography machines, was woken up by the ringing of the phone at around six o'clock in the morning.
"Academician Zhong, I'm sorry. The main reason is that it happened so suddenly... We noticed that two papers were published in Science, one of which is very weird. Just now, Mr. Chen said that he hoped you could come to the institute for verification as soon as possible?"
"What paper?"
"Well, the idea of a new complete lithography apparatus."
"Huh? It's just a paper that needs to be so urgent?"
"This...I can't explain it...Why don't you come and see for yourself and find out."
"Can't explain? How can a paper not be explained? Forget it... Mr. Chen and I will get up right now and arrive at the institute in half an hour."
…
There was more than just one phone call like this.
But the most innocent among them are probably the leaders of Xilin University of Technology.
