Among the EUVLLc alliance’s R&D investment proportions, the US Department of Energy, which leads the alliance, contributes 30%, Intel and GcA each contribute 20%, otorola, Ib, It, Ad and HP each contribute 4%, and 33 other technology companies such as icron and cyer and Research institutions contribute a total of 10%, and the rights they will enjoy in the future are the same as the proportion of investment.
Of the 20% that GcA needs to invest, 15% will be discounted from previous EUV research results.
GcA has invested US$150 million in the research and development of EUV over the years and has achieved a lot of research results related to EUV, but it is still far from success. It is difficult for GcA to complete it alone. Dean Thompson had to give up and come forward to invite The U.S. Department of Energy and Intel and other peers in the lithography and semiconductor industries, the U.S. Department of Energy took the lead in establishing EUVLLc.
The three national laboratories of the U.S. Department of Energy, Intel and Cyer and other companies have also been developing EUV in recent years, but they lag far behind the GcA. Academician Thompson became the cto of the EUVLLc alliance in response to popular expectations.
As the legal person and chairman of GcA, Sun Jian is happy to see the success.
Lithography machine companies have been unable to overcome the world-class problem of 193n wavelength, and 65n process technology lithography machines have not been seen for a long time. GcA and Nikon are anxious, but the most anxious ones are Intel and Ad, which have deep pockets and do not have next-generation lithography machines. , the next generation CPU developed by Intel and Ad can only become a research and development result, cannot be turned into a product, and cannot be put on the market. Consumers will lose their desire to buy, the company's sales and profits will drop sharply, investors will vote with their feet, the stock price will fall, and the market value will decrease. If R&D expenses are reduced and R&D is hindered, a series of chain reactions will occur.
In the past life, due to the delay in overcoming the world-class problem of 193n wavelength, the photolithography machine process technology has been stuck at 90n, and Moore's Law has expired! Until around 2007, the world's first 193n wavelength immersion lithography machine produced by ASL came out, breaking through the 90n process technology in one fell swoop. 65n, 45n, 32n, 28n, 20n, 14n, 10n... the process technology is becoming more and more refined. , manufacturing is becoming more and more difficult.
Before the rebirth, EUV lithography machines have been born. TSMC has announced that it can produce chips with 7n process technology. There are only four global lithography machine companies: ASL, Nikon, Canon and Shanghai Microelectronics (SEE).
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"All directors know that the industry has proposed two technical routes for the development of next-generation lithography machines. As far as I know, 157n lithography technology has also encountered huge challenges from the lenses of lithography machines, which cannot be overcome in a short time; Even if the EUVLLc Alliance successfully develops EUV within 5 years, the mass production of EUV lithography machines still has a long way to go. The industry pessimistically predicts that 65n process lithography machines will not be available within 5 years, and the upgrading of chips will be in trouble. Stagnation, due to the dual impact of the U.S. economic downturn and the obstruction of research and development of 65n process technology, the rapid development of the semiconductor industry cannot continue."
Sun Jian had a serious look on his face. He was neither talking nonsense nor giving advice. He accurately predicted the future development trends of the lithography machine industry and the semiconductor industry, preventing GcA from falling into passivity and continuing to establish the authoritative image of GcA's leader.
GcA, which is planning to close down, can become the world's largest lithography machine company. Chairman Sun's contribution is the first. This is the voice of all the directors present.
The lithography machine industry and the semiconductor industry both prosper and suffer.
In terms of understanding of the current situation and future development trends of the lithography machine industry, as the controlling shareholder of GcA, the world’s largest lithography machine company, and bSEc, the fifth largest lithography machine company, he is also the controlling shareholder of ASL, the third largest lithography machine company in the world. The second largest shareholder, Sun Jian's first-hand information is not comparable to that of ordinary photolithography experts. Combined with the knowledge accumulation of the second generation, he is ranked second, and no one dares to be ranked first.
After the Nasdaq network technology stock bubble burst in the previous life, the demand for computers, servers, program-controlled switches, routers and other products plummeted. Products were oversupplied, with a large backlog. Companies went bankrupt, the economy declined, US GDP fell into negative growth, the US caught a cold, and the world was hit by a recession. Sneeze, the semiconductor industry is stuck in a recession cycle.
Due to overcapacity in chips and oversupply of products, prices have fallen and sales have subsequently fallen. In
Tel, Ib, It, Ad, and HP's own wafer fabs have fallen into serious losses. Except for Intel and Ad, which have deep pockets, the other three have gradually abandoned the traditional one-stop model of chip R&D, production, and packaging and testing, and entrusted chip production to TSMC. and Samsung Electronics OEM, TSMC has become the biggest beneficiary, accounting for nearly 50% of the world's chip production share in its previous life.
"Mr. Sun, will the global semiconductor industry fall into recession?"
Altman, a director from Ad, heard something in Sun Jian's words and raised his hand to ask a question.
Chairman Sun's prediction has not been missed so far. Everyone looked serious and nodded repeatedly. Altman's question resonated.
"Mr. Altman, the global semiconductor industry is also a cyclical industry. This boom cycle of the semiconductor industry started in the third quarter of 1998 and is still growing today. According to the development rules of the semiconductor industry, a cycle takes about two years. Rotation, experts predict that it will fall into recession in the fourth quarter of this year and enter a recession cycle.”
Altmann is a German-American, and Sun Jian is not worried that if they spread this bad news, it will affect the historical process of the American lithography machine and semiconductor industry. These directors from other companies are not the company's top decision-makers! They invested US$2.5 billion (including infrastructure costs) last year to order a 12-inch wafer, 90n process semiconductor production line from GcA. It is expected that trial production will begin around October this year, and the production capacity will increase dramatically. Once there are not enough chip orders, these Semiconductor production lines will fall into losses.
In his previous life, Sun Jian was not very clear about the specific times of the boom and recession cycles of the semiconductor industry, but as an old stock investor, he knew that both the semiconductor industry and the panel industry had industry cycles. If you buy during the boom, you will make money, and if you buy during the recession, you will lose money. This is the iron law of making money by stock trading!
Just like a global economic crisis happens every 10 years or so, in 1998, 2008, 2018... After rebirth, because he entered the semiconductor industry and lithography machine industry, he was unwilling to become a layman, and Sun Jian, who was good at learning, was able to get First-hand information on lithography machines and the semiconductor industry and market, combined with accumulated knowledge from previous lives and careful analysis, can accurately predict the industry cycle of the semiconductor industry.
Experts like Sun Jian who grew up from the front line of the market are not experts and professors who came out of colleges and universities. Most of them can only talk on paper and have become the laughingstock of netizens in their previous lives.
At the World Economic Forum held every year in Davos, Switzerland, the president of the forum always invites the richest Chinese to attend, but Sun Jian politely declines for various reasons, unwilling to face the global media, politicians and business leaders to tell him what is right or wrong. No benefit.
At the World Chinese Entrepreneurs Conference (cEc) held every two years, Sun Jian will be present to congratulate him unless there are special circumstances.
