And the Titan processor was only released a few years ago?
Under such an unstoppable ebb and flow trend, it is unknown whether Nvidia can retain half of its current active users in less than five years.
A columnist analyst in the Wall Street Journal believes that the sales of high-performance processor companies such as AMD, Nvidia, and Intel will soften in 2022. Due to the mining disaster and changes in the supply and demand environment of the Daxia market, the overall sales will tend to normal. This will So some stocks will be affected.
The columnist put it euphemistically, just like ordinary people seeing lightning, thunder and violent storms coming a few kilometers away, while the weather forecast host on the TV in front of them is still saying that there will be showers in the local area.
Oil rats like the main institutions have already smelled the smell and started running away.
On August 9, the stock price of American Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) fluctuated and fell. As of the close, the stock fell 8.29% to US$109.34.
Barclays analysts downgraded the stock to "hold."
The analyst wrote: "AMD still has room to improve its share of the client market and server market this year. Although we see that there is still room for improvement in this year's 31% growth target, the problem lies in 2023, because we see several terminals Market cyclical risks.”
He pointed out that shipments of personal computer components have increased, but the computer market is no longer a playground for AMD, Intel, and Nvidia.
The entry of companies such as Pingguo, Jiuzhou Technology, and Xiawei will inevitably lead to great changes in the company's market share.
Barclays analysts also believe that Daxia’s entertainment products are eroding the Western entertainment market. As long as the production capacity of Titan processors and the limitations of Lingjing Ecology on products from companies such as Nvidia are solved, AMD’s customized chips for electronic game consoles in 2023 and 2024 Business will take a big hit. Although he believes that AMD is in a favorable position in the server market, he does not believe that the continued growth of this business will be enough to offset potential difficulties in other aspects, and there are also competing products such as the Rocky X1 server in Daxia.
Coincidentally, Eric, an analyst at Morgan Stanley, an international financial services company in New York, issued a similar warning in a report.
He downgraded the ratings of Hewlett-Packard and Dell, the two largest PC manufacturers in the United States, and also recommended that clients reduce their positions in semiconductor companies.
The impact of this report is not insignificant. Due to market sentiment, as of the close of trading on August 9, HP fell 6.54% to US$36.3; Dell fell 7.6% to US$50.19.
Even so, it's not over yet.
Morgan Stanley analyst Eric also pointed out on August 10th: "European and American semiconductor companies are becoming increasingly cautious about the prospects of IT hardware for the rest of this year. The risk of hardware budget reductions is increasing, and hardware profit increases have peaked. , further multiple compressions are increasingly possible.”
Eric then lowered Dell's rating from "outperform" to "in line with the market" and lowered the target price from $66 to $59; at the same time, he lowered HP's rating from "in line with the market" to "underperform." "Broad Market," lowering its price target to $30 from $34.
Dell and HP are naturally angry when they suffer such "slander".
Although the two of them do not have the hard power to develop and manufacture graphics cards and CPUs, they are still among the top two computer manufacturers in the world!
Why do Nvidia and AMD have to bleed even though they are not doing their job well? !
Naturally, the two companies are not willing to cut their ties.
the next day.
Summer time, August 11th.
The three newspapers known as the "three major newspapers" in the United States are the New York Times, the Los Angeles Times, and the Washington Post, as well as the Chicago Daily News, the Christian Science Monitor, and the New York Herald Tribune. Columnists from newspapers and Bloomberg rushed out articles as if they had taken laxatives.
"The graphics card market has reached an inflection point", "Semiconductor company winter has arrived", "Nvidia's graphics card empire is about to collapse", "The Eastern Lion wakes up, who will become its first blood meal?" ”, “Economic War? Tech war! ", "Technology Transfer in the Twenty-first Century", "Old Patterns Broken by Disruptors", "Technology: Breaking the Global Hegemony"...
The overwhelming amount of media articles, expert interpretations, reporter surveys, and host readings not only made people in the financial and manufacturing industries collectively confused, but also made investment banking institutions scratch their heads and call them off the phone.
During the U.S. stock market on Monday (August 15), Nvidia’s stock price fell sharply again, falling more than 8% to US$119 per share. Before the market opened, an investment bank lowered Nvidia's rating from "outperform" to "neutral" and significantly lowered its target price, citing concerns about order cancellations.
And some senior analysts pointed out that some business users and consumers have begun to cancel orders from NVIDIA, AMD and other companies, and these companies may face the risk of "overstock" and technology version obsolescence.
On Monday afternoon, preliminary results from IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Personal Computing Device Tracking Report showed that global shipments of traditional PCs, including desktops, laptops and workstations, fell 5.1% in the first quarter of 2022 and 6.2% in the second quarter. %, exceeding previous forecasts.
The graphics card is an important hardware part of the computer host. NVIDIA's flagship product, the graphics processor (GPU), is a chip on the graphics card.
According to surveys by relevant agencies, since the second quarter of 2021, the income of graphics card dealers has been "lower than seasonal income." This phenomenon has slowed down after Nvidia, AMD and other companies formed an alliance.
However, the market shrinkage and dealer income reduction have not stopped. Not only did the graphics card market price drop by 30% month-on-month, but the price level returned to the beginning of 2020. Even in order to provide warranty services in the supply chain, profit margins dropped by 29%.
I don’t know what kind of evil wind has blown up. More than one investment bank and financial institution has changed its attitude towards the previous leading companies in the semiconductor industry.
On Tuesday morning, investment bank Truist lowered its price targets for Nvidia, AMD and Intel. The bank even told investors bluntly that it had found "conclusive evidence of order cuts."
A senior analyst at the bank said: "Although the performance of the semiconductor industry has remained strong in the previous decade, it will begin to turn in the second half of this year and 2023."
In addition, Kyushu Technology’s Titan processor was “actually” highlighted in reports by some organizations.
"According to the survey, the development trend of Daxia Jiuzhou Technology's processor business is 'very strong', and it is likely to reach a peak year-on-year revenue in the second half of 2022. At the same time, the development trend of Daxia's semiconductor business is also very strong.'
Nasdaq needs companies with more potential to join. Jiuzhou Technology's global industrial layout is extremely bad, and it needs large amounts of funds to help the company develop. "
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