"Oh?" The human pig was a little confused, "I don't understand what you mean."
Lao Lu was also a little confused: "Boy, what are you talking about? Is there a "sure-win" in this game? "
"I dare not say the sure-win method." Qi Xia shook his head, "But the 'pig game' is definitely not a 'luck' game, but a complete 'probability' game. "
"What do you mean?" Lao Lu was a little confused. "No matter how you allocate it, the number of black and white pieces is fifty, which means that the probability of you touching all the pieces is one-half."
"Really?" Qi Xia shook his head noncommittally, "Because of this, this game seems to be close to "luck". "
"To tell you the truth, kid." Lao Lu leaned into Qi Xia's ear and whispered, "For the first time, I separated the black and white chess pieces, so that as long as I can pick the bowl with the black pieces, I will win. Unfortunately, I lost. The second time I evenly distributed the black and white chess pieces into the two bowls, but I still didn’t get any black pieces. It was really bad luck.”
Lao Lu touched his chin and said: "If you think about it carefully, if you break the ratio and there are more and less black and white chess pieces in each bowl, it will be more difficult for me to touch the black chess pieces. So it is impossible no matter what. There is a sure way to win.”
Qi Xia nodded: "It is impossible to win this game, I can only try to increase my chance of winning. "
"Huh? Do you have a solution?"
Qi Xia did not answer, but said to the human pig: "I'm ready, let's get started."
The human pig smiled stupidly, then stretched out his hand in a "please" gesture: "Start the distribution."
Qi Xia looked at the two identical bowls, then at the black and white chess pieces with the same texture and feel, silently grabbed a handful of chess pieces and put them into the bowl.
Lao Lu looked at Qi Xia silently, wondering how he was going to arrange the one hundred chess pieces.
Qi Xia kept grabbing the chess pieces and throwing them into the bowl, as if he didn't count the number of black and white pieces at all.
"Hey...is that okay?" Lao Lu asked hesitantly, "Would you like to count how many pills you've put in?"
Qi Xia did not speak, but kept throwing chess pieces into a bowl.
Lao Lu and Lin Yu looked at each other, not knowing what Qi Xia was going to do.
He didn't stop until Qi Xia threw all the chess pieces into the same bowl.
The pig-headed man was a little angry when he saw this: "Hey, hey, hey! It's a foul! It must be divided into two bowls!"
"I know." Qi Xia nodded, "The distribution is not over yet."
After speaking, he picked up a black chess piece from the bowl and threw it into another bowl.
"My assignment is over." Qi Xia raised his head and looked at the human pig calmly.
"What?!"
Several people present were a little stunned.
What distribution method is this?
Is there a black stone in one bowl and the remaining ninety-nine pieces in another bowl?
Lao Lu looked at the two bowls on the table, his pupils moved, and after a long time he said: "Wonderful...wonderful..."
He understood Qi Xia's tactics.
It turns out that no matter how Lao Lu distributes the chess pieces, the "optimal distribution" of the chess pieces in the two bowls is that both become half.
In this way, he can ensure that he has half the chance of touching the sunspot.
But Qi Xia broke this balance.
He made the probability of getting a sunspot in one bowl 100%, and the probability of getting a sunspot in the other bowl as close to one half as possible.
Since a bowl must be randomly selected at the beginning, Qi Xia is very likely to directly select the bowl containing the black pieces. He does not need to pick any more pieces from the bowl and wins directly.
Even if he is unlucky and selects another bowl, the probability of selecting the black one is almost the same as 1/2. After all, it is 49%.
He is like adding a layer of secret "insurance" to his victory.
When the human pig saw this scene, the eyes under the mask obviously became colder.
"Are you trying to be clever with me?" The human pig's tone changed, no longer sounding so childish, but with a hint of cunning.
"Clever?" Qi Xia felt a little funny. She raised her eyebrows and said, "Nothing I did violated the rules. How could I be so smart?"
Renzhu took out a blindfold from his pocket, slowly handed it to Qi Xia, and said, "I know a lot of smart people, most of them have bad luck."
Qi Xia nodded and took the blindfold: "I can't refute this. After all, smart people rarely rely on luck."
"But in the final analysis we are gambling." Renzhu said in a low tone, "The most important thing about gambling is "strong luck". You are very smart, but what about your luck? "
"I don't know." Qi Xia replied, "But we will find out soon."
Qi Xia slowly put on the blindfold, put her hands on the table and stopped moving.
The human pig took the two bowls and began to shake the chess pieces in them.
This rule was originally designed to deal with some opportunists who would use white stones as a base and then spread all black stones on top so that they can easily touch them.
But now for Qi Xia's tactics, this rule has completely lost its effect.
The man-pig knew that no matter how he shook the chess pieces, the man in front of him would choose one without hesitation.
After all, what he had to do had been done, and now he was ready to leave everything to his own "luck."
Thinking of this, he shook it casually, shuffled the positions of the two bowls, and rearranged them one on the left and one on the right.
"Hey, which bowl do you want to choose?" the human pig asked, "your left hand side...or your right hand side?"
"I..." Qi Xia lowered his head and was silent for a while, then said, "On the left, I choose the left."
Ringo and Lao Lu were startled at the same time, feeling something bad in their hearts.
Because Qi Xia's left hand side is the bowl containing ninety-nine chess pieces!
The human pig's eyes suddenly lit up: "Very good, now please choose the chess pieces."
He pushed the bowl in front of Qi Xia with a slight sarcasm, as if watching his joke.
Qi Xia raised the corners of his mouth slightly and said, "Don't you want to test my luck? This bowl is just the right way to test it."
"What..." Renzhu was stunned, "You, you know this bowl is 'wrong'? ! "
"Almost." Qi Xia slowly put his hand into the bowl and said, "Actually, choosing "left and right sides" is the same as choosing "rock, paper, scissors". It seems to be a balanced probability, but it is always due to human beings. thinking leads to bias. "
"What do you mean?" Lao Lu asked in confusion.
"Just like most people will come out with scissors first when using rock-paper-scissors, the probability is actually not balanced." Qi Xia explained, "'paper' will make your palms wide open and lose your sense of security, while 'rock' will hold Tightening your hands makes people subconsciously feel depressed, so "scissors" become the most moderate choice. The same goes for choosing the left and right sides. People subconsciously think that "the left side is safer." After all, most people in the world are right-handed. They often use their right hands, and the chance of injury to the right hand is much higher than that of the left hand, so when When choosing a safe direction, it's easy to choose "left." "
"You...are indeed not an ordinary person." said the human pig.
"There is no need to praise me, because you also understand these principles." Qi Xia said, "You placed the ninety-nine chess pieces on my left hand. Isn't it unintentional?"
