The capital, the Ministry of Household Affairs, and the flower hall outside the Shangshu's duty room.
The incense is lingering, the stove is warm, and a red sandalwood landscape screen at the door blocks the snowy scene outside, keeping the conversation between the two ministers in the flower hall indoors, away from outsiders.
"This is roughly what happened. The latest news after that is that Li Chengliang pressured Jianzhou. Nurhaci took the initiative to surrender, invited him to Hetuala for inspection, and promised to return the land he had seized in the previous years." Liang Menglong, the visiting Minister of War He sighed and shook his head.
The pragmatic Gao sat opposite Liang Menglong. He seemed a little surprised when he heard this. He frowned and pondered, and tapped the armrest of the rosewood chair rhythmically with the five fingers of his right hand.
Liang Menglong has been familiar with Gao Pragmatic for a long time, and knows that this is Gao Pragmatic's habitual action when thinking, so he does not rush it and quietly waits for Gao Pragmatic's conclusion.
Not long after, Liang Menglong, who was holding a sip of fragrant tea, suddenly heard Gao Pingshi chuckle. He couldn't help but raise his head and said with a little surprise: "Why do you laugh when you seek truth?"
Gao Pragmatic seemed to be unable to hold back his smile, he laughed "haha" again, shook his head and said: "I laugh at Li Yincheng who has been unbeatable in Liaodong for more than 20 years, but this time he is afraid that he will suffer a big loss."
Liang Menglong was greatly surprised, his eyes widened with disbelief on his face: "How can you say this?"
Gao Pingshi raised his eyebrows slightly and asked, "Does Mr. Mingquan know Zhang Poqiang's old skills?"
"Zhang Poqiang?" Liang Menglong thought about this somewhat unfamiliar title and asked, "Really, does it mean Zhang Xiu, the general of PoQiang in the late Han Dynasty?"
Gao Pragmatic nodded and said: "Of course."
Liang Menglong's expression changed: "You mean...Nurhachi is pretending to surrender?"
"Nurhachi is by no means someone who surrenders easily." Gao Pragmatic said decisively with bright eyes: "I expect that when he surrenders this time, his words must be extremely respectful and humble, and he will not hesitate to be servile, right?"
"Yes." Liang Menglong replied, and then asked: "What is the strategy of the proud soldiers?"
Gao Pragmatic smiled and said: "Cao Cao was defeated in Wancheng and forced Zhang Xiu's aunt Zou to sleep with him as a trigger. However, it was too easy to win. He became complacent and became a arrogant soldier. This is the root cause. I think In the battle of Jianzhou, Uncle Ning Yuan has shown the appearance of a arrogant soldier. Even if Nurhaci has not decided on his plan, he should follow Zhang Xiu and Jia Xu's strategy after seeing him."
Liang Menglong pondered and said: "But Li Chengliang has many brave generals and capable soldiers, and Nurhachi has recently defeated him and asked to surrender. I am afraid that the morale of the barbarian soldiers under his command is low..."
Gao pragmatically said: "It is true, but the low morale of Nurhachi's troops is not irreversible. As the saying goes, a sad soldier will win. Nurhaci only needs to pretend to be pitiful, and then design one or two things. For example, he fakes Ning Yuanbo's actions of bullying others, and Jianzhou Yi soldiers He will be extremely angry, which is why he mourns his troops."
Liang Menglong frowned and said, "Li Chengliang is not a resourceful person. Why was he so careless this time?"
"I'm afraid he didn't miss it, but made a mistake." Gao pragmatic shook his head and said: "Uncle Ning Yuan wants to go to Hetuala in person, which is actually the biggest failure of this war. If he stationed a large army outside Hetuala, Even when he was stationed as far away as Crow Falcon Pass and Qinghe Fort, Nurhachi was still nothing more than a turtle in a jar. It was up to me to take the initiative when to capture him.
However, he was afraid that the West and North Routes would gain the upper hand and weaken his reputation as the commander-in-chief of Liaodong. Therefore, he planned the battle step by step from the pre-war deployment: He knew that Cao Yu was cautious, but instead of giving a shortcut, he gave one The difficult road was deliberately taken slowly; he knew that Ma Chengxun was brave, but he did not impose strict orders and asked him to walk alone, deliberately taking the speed.
Between the speed and the slowness, the strength and the weakness, Nurhaci would naturally think of defeating Ma Chengxun first and regard Cao Yun as nothing. I guess Ning Yuanbo's intention is to see Ma Chengxun defeated and Cao Yun unable to come to his aid. In this way, he can turn the tide of Ma Chengxun's new defeat and let the emperor and the court see his power in Liaodong.
I don’t know whether Uncle Ning Yuan had anticipated Nurhaci’s request to surrender. However, I think Nurhaci's surrender is not the best situation for Ning Yuanbo, but it is still acceptable - although it lacks some military exploits, it has more power, and it can also make people see that he plays a decisive role in Liaodong.
It was precisely because of this that he went to Hetuala for inspection - this inspection was actually just Xiang Zhuang's sword dance, intended for Pei Gong. Ning Yuanbo did not really want to embarrass Nurhachi, he just wanted to show the court. "
Liang Menglong's face gradually turned ugly, and he said solemnly: "Since he wants to show off to the court, then Li Chengliang will definitely become more domineering after arriving in Hetuala. Because only the more domineering he behaves, the more his reputation will be more and more intimidating. Under this situation, the Jurchen tribes, even people like Nurhaci, can only obey and dare not complain at all."
Gao pragmatically spread his hands and said, "That's probably the case."
Liang Menglong's anger began to rise, and he gritted his teeth and said: "I don't care whether Li Chengliang is defeated or not, but if he is really defeated at this time, wouldn't this so-called battle of the four-pronged army encircling Hetuala be regarded as nothing? And the prestige that I, the Ming Dynasty, have built up in Liaodong over the past two hundred years will collapse all at once?"
Gao Pragmatic did not immediately agree this time, but pondered for a moment and said: "The prestige that the Ming Dynasty has established in the court for two hundred years will not collapse in one go. Especially a defeat like Ning Yuanbo's, even if it spreads. , the Jurchen tribes can only say that he lost Jingzhou due to his carelessness, and it will not extend to the entire Ming Dynasty. But in this way, the next battle will be difficult to fight, or Cao Yun will be under greater pressure.
Now Ma Chengxun is injured. Although he has sent a message saying that he is not seriously injured, but he will not be able to use his left arm in the near future. However, after this battle, even though I have not been there, I feel that the place cannot use most of the cavalry... …”
The words were obviously not finished yet, but Liang Menglong made an apologetic gesture this time, interrupted Gao Pingshi's words, and said: "If this is really the case, then there will be another crime on Li Chengliang's head!"
Gao pragmatic knew what he meant: when the imperial court scheduled the number of troops, it only controlled the number of troops and did not clearly say how to proportion the troops. This must be something that the frontline generals must control themselves. Specifically, it was Li Chengliang who did it. Details determine the matter, and the court cannot control it remotely.
Li Chengliang must be very familiar with the local terrain. He has defeated Gule Village twice, and Gule Village is not far from Hetuala - this time Cao Yun's troops marched along the Sukesu River, so Normally speaking, after passing through Sarhu, the next stop is Jiefan Village, the next stop is Gule Village, the next is Mardun Village, and finally Hetuala.
Since Li Chengliang was familiar with the local terrain, he naturally knew that large groups of cavalry could not be used there, so he still arranged for Ma Chengxun's entire army of four thousand cavalry to be deployed. Wasn't this intentional or just a joke? Obviously, he deliberately gave Ma Chengxun's troops high mobility, so that he would create a situation where only Ma Chengxun could run fast among the four armies.
However, after Liang Menglong said this, he suddenly thought of a big problem and said in surprise: "No, Li Chengliang himself has all the cavalry, and the number is twice as many as Ma Chengxun. How can this be explained?"
Gao Pragmatic had thought about this question for a long time, and immediately replied: "Nothing else, Ning Yuanbo did not go to this battle for the sake of fighting, he just went to show off his power."
"Oh?" Liang Menglong frowned and thought for a moment, then said sullenly: "Good Li Chengliang, what did he take the military order from the imperial court for? I think according to his estimation, he probably waited for Ma Chengxun to be defeated, and he immediately marched in to scare him away. Nurhachi, this achieved the effect of declaring power. If things went wrong, he was not in a hurry, because all his troops were cavalry. If the battle situation really went bad, he could always run away. And then he also has Cao Cao There are nearly 10,000 infantry from the two armies of Yan and Yang Yuan, both of which are elites. As long as the encirclement is successful, Hetuala will still be captured by him! What a 'sure-fire strategy'!"
Gao pragmatic added: "Although Ning Yuanbo's troops were all cavalry, they brought artillery battalions with them. This probably means that once Nurhaci did not dare to fight with him in the field and refused to surrender, he would directly take the cavalry with him. Hetuala, use the artillery camp to break the city, so that you can even monopolize the great achievements after Ma Chengxun is defeated."
Liang Menglong sneered and said: "It's true that God's calculations are worse than those of God. Although Ma Chengxun was slightly injured, the battle was not defeated, and the strength of his army was still there. On the contrary, Nurhaci was in a desperate situation and had to resort to Zhang Xiu and Jia Xu's strategy. However, Li Chengliang was so intent on claiming credit that he actually fell into the trap... Humph, this is the cycle of heaven, and retribution is unpleasant."
Gao Pragmatic was too lazy to discuss the issue of retribution or not, but turned the topic back and said: "If Uncle Ning Yuan really fell into Nurhachi's trick this time, we have to discuss a countermeasure earlier: Should we fight this battle? , if you want to continue fighting, how should you fight?"
Liang Menglong waved his hand: "How else can we fight? We can only count on Cao Yun."
Gao pragmatic hesitated for a moment, then slowly shook his head and said, "I don't think so."
"Oh?" Liang Menglong was slightly surprised and asked, "What's the point of seeking truth?"
Gao pragmatically said: "Although Ning Yuanbo's defeat is largely foreseeable, it is still difficult to determine whether it will be a major defeat or a minor defeat. If it is just a minor defeat, you can just retreat a certain distance to regroup and make a comeback; if it is a major defeat... ...Then naturally we can only retreat to the wall for repairs first.
Let's first plan for the worst-case scenario: Ning Yuanbo is defeated and his troops can no longer fight. What will be the situation of the Jianzhou Battle at this time? The strength of Ma Chengxun on the North Road still exists, Cao Yun and Yang Yuan are still fresh forces, and they have not been affected by the defeat of Ning Yuanbo. In other words, our army still has 12,000 to 3,000 troops available.
On the other hand, Nurhachi's troops lost more than 200 people in the North Road ambush battle. According to the general casualty ratio, there should be another 200 to 300 seriously injured and 500 to 600 slightly injured. It is extremely cold in Liaodong. People with minor injuries are less likely to contract the disease and can recover quickly, but those with serious injuries are more difficult to treat.
Based on this calculation, Nurhachi's battle should be regarded as a loss of about 500 people. This was the largest loss since he inherited the duties of his grandfather. Even...the total number of casualties he suffered since the defeat of Nikan Wailan may not have reached this number. "
Gao Pragmatic's prediction is quite accurate. Nurhachi's previous series of wars were relatively small in scale. Especially in the series of battles attacking Nikanwailan, Nikanwailan almost always fled to another place wherever Nurhachi chased him, and there were not many actual battles. In terms of losses, the largest battle loss was only twenty or thirty people.
The battle with Hada was also quite funny. Nurhaci's side charged and Hada was immediately defeated, and the loss was only double digits. The battle in which Nurhaci lost hundreds of people was the first two battles against Dong E's tribe, but they were only over a hundred people. Therefore, it can indeed be said that the battle with Ma Chengxun was the biggest loss Nurhaci had suffered since he started his army.
This is also the reason why he immediately changed his mind after that battle and no longer adhered to the pre-war plan, but instead carried out a very risky false surrender strategy against Li Chengliang's troops.
He originally planned to "send" Li Chengliang a victory and ask for surrender, but the ambush of Ma Chengxun made him realize the elite and power of the Ming army's cavalry. He was worried that if the "merit" was not delivered properly, and Li Chengliang was so eager to claim the credit, he would beat him to death regardless of his feelings, and that would be the end of the world.
Therefore, Nurhachi thought about it and felt that his fate should still be in his own hands, so he simply used war to promote peace, defeating Li Chengliang first, and then watching the movements of the Ming army.
If the Ming army withdraws its troops, he will go directly to the emperor to admit his mistake. Presumably the emperor should be able to face up to his status in Jianzhou and acquiesce to his previous actions; if the Ming army is unwilling to fail, they will continue to fight... At this time, Gu Gu A Jianzhou left-back would definitely not be able to defeat the Ming Dynasty. However, there were internal conflicts in the Ming Dynasty, and the conflicts in Liaodong were even more intense.
To put it simply, Li Chengliang's defeat was Li Chengliang's fault. He, Nurhaci, could have gone back to Cao Yuan to ask for surrender.
After hearing Gao Pragmatic's analysis, Liang Menglong immediately expanded his thoughts and said: "Although Nurhachi's plan to design Li Chengliang will probably succeed, after all, Li Chengliang's troops are all elites who have fought in hundreds of battles. Even if they fall into the trap, they will not be defeated so easily." .As a result, Nurhachi may lose a lot of people in Hetuala.
His Jianzhou left guard only has seven or eight thousand soldiers and horses, and as far as I know, these soldiers are usually the only force (labor force) in the tribe. If he really loses more than half, then his Jianzhou left guard will be finished. Therefore, even if he defeated Li Chengliang, his own losses would reach the limit he could bear. Unless he really wants to annihilate the Jianzhou Zuowei clan, or completely reduce it to an insignificant tribe, otherwise he can only really surrender. "
This is the real weakness of the Jurchens at this time. The population is too small, resulting in a poor ability to withstand battle damage. Once there are several fierce battles, it will take a long time to recover.
In fact, let alone the current Jurchen tribes competing for supremacy, each tribe has a population of tens of thousands. Even in the original history, after Nurhaci unified the Jurchens and established the Later Jin Dynasty, the Hou Jin army's casualty tolerance was actually very low. Difference.
After a battle like the Bloody Battle of Hunhe River, it would take Houjin a long time to recover. If the Ming court had not been busy with party disputes at that time, the emperor and the officials were in serious conflict, and the court's elite soldiers were close to being wiped out, Hou Jin would not have been so difficult to pacify.
According to Gao Pragmatic's past thoughts, as long as the Ming army could win even once in a large-scale field battle, they could use this as an opportunity to build confidence in Hou Jin, and then overwhelm and destroy Hou Jin in waves.
At present, Nurhachi's casualty tolerance is even worse. As long as Li Chengliang doesn't mess around due to other factors, the Ming army can win no matter how hard it fights.
Gao pragmatic sighed and said: "I said before that the Jianzhou left guard cannot be completely eliminated now, otherwise Ye He will become unstoppable again. I think otherwise, if Ning Yuanbo is really defeated, The Ministry of War immediately seized his command and handed over the front line to Cao Yun."
"There is no problem with the Ministry of War, but with the Emperor..." Liang Menglong immediately responded.
Gao pragmatic waved his hand: "I'll go talk to the emperor."
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Today is New Year’s Eve. I wish all readers a happy New Year, a happy family, and a prosperous and successful year ahead!
