Issei called the casino employees again and told them to increase Tsunade's rake to 20%, and not allow anyone to place bets after Tsunade placed a bet on a certain gaming table. If possible, try to leave Tsunade alone at a gaming table.
To the greatest extent possible, other gamblers were prevented from using Tsunade as a ghost lamp.
In fact, although Tsunade lost 23 million in the casino last night, the casino actually lost money last night. A gambler like Tsunade who kept playing while losing almost the whole time was too eye-catching.
As long as the rest of the gamblers play against Tsunade, they will almost certainly win money. How could I allow other gamblers in the casino to take advantage of this loophole?
After giving the instructions, Shi Shiran walked into the gambling hall, found Tsunade who was already betting, and sat down next to her. He also wanted to see how bad the legendary big fat sheep's luck was.
The item on this gaming table is dice, and the options that can be pressed include big and small, odd and even, leopard, and even the total number of points and the points of each of the three dice can be pressed.
The odds are accurately calculated. Without taking into account margins, the casino's winning rate is about 51.5%, while the gambler's winning rate is only 48.5%.
Tsunade thought for a moment and pushed two 100,000-denomination chips into the [Large] and [14-point] betting areas respectively. She turned her head and glanced at Yisheng. She didn't care about Yisheng. She turned her head and clasped her hands on her chest to pray. .
Sheng Sheng held his chin with one hand and said with a smile: "I heard that your gambling luck is very bad, and you lose nine times out of ten."
"That was before. I will definitely be lucky today. I have a strong feeling!"
"Do you need me to give you some advice?"
Yisheng smiled and suggested: "You place bets separately. Obviously you want to bet on specific points with low probability and high odds, and at the same time, you want to use high probability and small odds to steadily reduce risks.
Considering your bad luck of losing nine out of ten bets, you will definitely lose money in this case, and you will lose 200,000 in each game.
You can not bet on odd or even numbers, but only pursue high-odds options such as leopards and specific points. If you lose, you lose. It’s no different from pressing big or small odd or even numbers.
If you win, you will get a huge profit. The odds of a leopard are 30 to 1. "
"snort!"
Tsunade dismissed Life's advice, "Did you enter the casino to lose money? You are timid before you fight. You feel you will lose before you even gamble. What kind of money are you gambling for?"
"Want to win money?
It's simple, you can press both big and small, chase an additional leopard, and give specific points, you can win one no matter what. Including the rake, you only need to output a minimum of 120,000 per game on average. "
"Oh, you are so annoying. I told you that I would definitely get lucky today. Look, I will definitely win this one!"
Tsunade opened her eyes and stared at Isei with wide pink eyes.
Keep your mouth shut resolutely throughout your life, good words can hardly persuade you to die, and you will die without mercy.
At this moment, the dealer happened to open the dice, 124, 7 o'clock, and Tsunade was in a hurry.
"Boy, I lost. It's all your fault. I already had a premonition of winning. If you hadn't cursed me, I wouldn't have lost this game!"
Tsunade grumbled, picked up the tray, stood up, and left the gaming table, heading to another poker table.
"Thank you for reminding me Tsunade-sama."
Shizune did not follow Tsunade and bowed to Issei with her arms in her arms. Of course she could calculate that by betting according to Issei's advice, Tsunade's losses could be minimized from a probability perspective.
only……
"Mr. Issei, you are the operator of this casino, right? Why do you want to give advice to Tsunade-sama?" Shizune asked in confusion.
"Business is business, conscience is conscience. We are all Konoha ninjas. From a conscience perspective, of course I don't want Tsunade-hime to lose too much."
Yisheng answered with a very sincere expression, it seemed that his conscience was really causing trouble.
"You are such a good person." Shizune was quite touched and praised with a slight blush on her cheeks.
In fact, how can there be such a thing as conscience in life? His suggestions are useless because he simply doesn't care what Tsunade presses.
There is a common term in the two industries of finance and gaming called EV value, which is Expected value. The calculation formula of this value is also very simple.
Probability of winning × profit from winning - probability of failure × loss when losing, which is the final EV value.
Take the dice just now as an example. If a leopard kills an odd or even number, the probability of an odd or even number is 35/72. The probability of a leopard is 1 in 36, but the odds of an odd or even number are only 1. 2. The odds of a leopard are only 30 to 1, and according to the rules, they are all negative EV.
For any project in the casino where gamblers compete against the casino, the gambler's EV value is negative. Including rake, the EV value of gamblers in all projects is negative.
Giving advice to Tsunade throughout his life is about the same as a tobacconist printing "Smoking is harmful to health" on cigarette packages, which is extremely hypocritical.
After bowing to Issei, Shizune caught up with Tsunade and left quickly.
In order to prevent Tsunade from losing money and running away, she never left Yisheng. Instead, she exchanged tens of thousands of chips, played boredom in her own casino to pass the time, and monitored Tsunade's every move.
Of course, a lifetime of surveillance cannot escape Tsunade's perception, but how could she care?
Time passed by, and during this period, Yisheng asked the casino employees to help him order a few takeaways for Tsunade. Twenty hours later, by four or five o'clock in the morning the next day, Tsunade had lost 46 million taels of chips. Only a few hundred thousand remain.
During this period, Yisheng discovered that Tsunade was not really a loser nine times out of ten. Through observation, Yisheng also roughly understood the specific manifestations of Tsunade's "nine times out of ten bets".
First of all, in a single game with a 50-50 odds of winning or losing, Tsunade's winning rate is as high as about 30%, and she can even win several games in a row.
Tsunade's nine out of ten bets and losing is the "overall situation", that is, Tsunade enters the casino with a bunch of chips, loses and loses during the period, and ends up with a high probability of losing nothing, a small probability of negative profit, and a very low probability of positive profit. casino.
In this way, it will take a lifetime to understand why Tsunade "loses nine times out of ten bets" and is so addicted to gambling.
Gambling, whether you lose or win, can stimulate the secretion of adrenaline hormones in people and make people feel happy. But if you simply lose and keep losing, you will not develop a gambling addiction.
What really makes Tsunade unable to quit is the experience of winning in a low but not particularly low proportion in the "whole game", or even in a row.
When you lose, you want to make up for your losses, and when you win, you want to continue winning. After losing many times in a row, you think your probability of winning the next one will be particularly high. After you open many large lots in a row, you think your probability of winning the next small one will increase. Little do you know that this is a complete fallacy. .
It is correct to deduce the law of large numbers through countless independent accidental events and turn accidental events into "inevitable events".
But conversely, it is extremely absurd to infer a single accidental event through the law of large numbers and think that it can become an inevitable event.
Already bad luck + a gambler’s mentality of not leaving even if he wins or losing, and having to lose before running away + negative EV value caused by odds + rake...
How could Tsunade not "lose nine out of ten bets"? Even if she was unlucky or not, she would have a high probability of losing nine times out of ten just by winning or losing.
If you don't know how to take advantage of gains and stop losses in time, you are actually competing with the casino for the amount of money. If the casino prints chips at will, you will always encounter times when you are unlucky and lose consecutively.
At this moment, Tsunade was sitting next to the gambling table holding a few crystal chips. She hadn't closed her eyes for two days and two nights in a row, her eyes were red, and her wrists and body were trembling slightly with a feverish expression.
You're sweating now, little girl.
