After the market closed in the afternoon, Fang Hong sat on the sofa area in the main living room on the first floor of the villa, and was watching the special program on the first day of listing of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 stock index futures being broadcast on the financial news channel.
The program team invited two so-called stock review experts to interpret and comment on it. Fang Hong was watching this program when he had nothing to do.
In the studio, the host faced the camera and said: [...Welcome back, the much-anticipated stock index futures finally met with investors today, and the first trading day has closed. Please give your comments on the first trading day. The performance is for everyone to interpret. ]
Girl Hutao sat next to Fang Hong, peeled a piece of apple and put it in his mouth, feeling very comfortable with nothing to do.
The voice of the stock commentator came from the TV: [Judging from today's market performance, all four stock index futures contracts opened higher. Among them, the main contract if1005 opened higher at 3450 points, an increase of more than 2%; the 1012 contract opened higher The range reached more than 7%, opening at 3618.8 points, which shows that investors are still accustomed to speculating on new stocks. ]
Guest: [However, the four contracts all showed a trend of opening high and moving low. The contracts all hit the highest point in the morning 5 minutes before the opening, and then fell all the way until 10:30, when they stopped falling and stabilized, and began to build a platform for consolidation. At 13:30 in the afternoon, the futures index began to rise, but the good times did not last long. At 14:10, it began to show a downward trend. It fell sharply in late trading, but it all closed above the benchmark price. ]
Moderator: [Well, yes, let’s take a look at the closing data. The 1005 contract rose by +0.49%, the 1006 contract rose by +1.25%, the 1009 contract rose by +3.32%, and the 1012 contract rose by +4.65%. However, we have also noticed that the CSI 300 Index fell by 1.13 percentage points today. What do the two guests think of this? ]
Guest: [From the perspective of intraday futures and spot trends, the intraday correlation between futures contracts and spot indexes is not high. Although the futures indexes are higher than the current indexes, they are significantly lower than the daily limit range. Therefore, it can be said that stock index futures The operation was very smooth on the first day of listing. ]
Fang Hong couldn't help but smile when he heard the comment from the stock commentator. He would be slapped in the face next Monday, and he didn't know how he would respond.
Moderator: [The turnover of more than 60 billion on the first trading day of stock index futures shows that investors are very enthusiastic to participate. However, although the four contracts closed in the green, they showed a trend of opening higher and moving lower. ]
Guest: [As a result, today’s futures and spot prices are diverging. The maximum price difference between the spot price and the spot price may be close to 90 points in the middle of the session, and the lowest is more than 50 points. There will be a large number of futures and spot arbitrage opportunities during the session, as well as short-selling opportunities on highs. The trend of opening high and moving low makes More investors got a taste of making money from short selling for the first time. ]
Guest: [We have just made a rough calculation. If calculated according to the highest point and the lowest point, the May contract can earn up to 15% if it is correct, and the maximum loss of 15% can be lost if it is done; the June contract can earn up to 14.8% if it is done. The maximum compensation for mistakes is 18.3%; the maximum profit for September contracts is 22.26%, and the maximum compensation for mistakes is 22.26%; the maximum compensation for December contracts is 18.3%, and the maximum compensation for mistakes is 18.3%. ]
Moderator: [These data fully illustrate the leverage effect of the stock index futures market. ]
Guest: [Yes, yes, that’s right, because it is generally impossible to make a profit or loss of more than 10% in a day in the spot market, which means that the stock index futures market has high returns and high risks. Different from the stock market, stock index futures are a zero-sum game. If both the long and short sides make money, they will definitely lose. ]
Guest: [Everyone who went short today basically made a profit, and those who went long basically lost everything. Billions of funds were transferred from the long side to the short side today, so investors who were long can only watch the money in their accounts. funds were transferred. ]
Host: [What do the two guests think of the trading volume on the first day? ]
Guest: [In terms of trading volume, on the first day of listing, the futures contract trading exceeded market expectations. From the perspective of transactions and positions, the 1005 contract is truly the main contract, with both trading volume and open interest at around 80%. The main contract if1005 48,988 lots were traded, far exceeding market expectations of 10,000 lots. ]
Guest: [From the data disclosed by Changcheng Weiye Futures, the transaction volume of the four contracts is calculated as 60,000 lots. At the same time, based on the 7,000 customers participating in the transaction, the average transaction volume per account is 8.6 lots. Based on the average of 100 yuan per lot. In terms of handling fees, the first day of listing of the futures index brought about 12 million yuan in revenue to the industry. The problem of insufficient liquidity that the market had previously worried about did not appear, but most investors entering the market mainly conducted exploratory transactions. ]
Fang Hong watched the TV show without saying a word. The newly opened venue collected 12 million yuan in commissions on the first day. Based on this base, the revenue is 3 billion yuan a year. In fact, there will be more and more transactions. , this money is earned steadily.
The program is still going on, host: [According to our reporter from Ziah Hongye Futures, more than half of the company’s customers participated in the first day of trading in stock index futures. Analysts from Hongye Futures said that as stock index futures are a new thing, most investors regard the first order as an experience. One of the customers placed an order in a hedging manner. He made one move each for long and short positions, and conducted exploratory operations in both directions at the same time. , intended to achieve risk avoidance. ]
Moderator: [In addition, news from the Changcheng Weiye Futures Sales Department shows that the amount of funds used by trading customers today exceeded 50% of the margin ratio, and there was no so-called liquidation. ]
Guest: [As one of the first investors to participate in stock index futures, it is my first time to participate in real trading operations and try my skills. Profit and loss are not important, what is important is experience (laughing)]
Moderator: [What do the two guests think are the characteristics of the first day trading of stock index futures? ]
Guest: [Based on the performance of the first day of trading, I think there are the following four major characteristics. First, there is a long complex. Many investors have been engaged in securities investment and have developed a long complex in the long-term investment process, which makes today’s valuation It rose sharply at the opening. The far-month contract if1012 once rose by +7.91%. Other contracts also generally experienced large increases, allowing old futures customers to gain greater profits through short selling. ]
Guest: [The second is the emergence of arbitrage opportunities. Affected by the country's policies on real estate, the CSI 300 spot index rose significantly, driven by banking stocks, closing at 3356.3 points, down 38.24 points throughout the day. Affected by the long sentiment, the front-month stock index futures contract if1005 closed at 3415.6 points, an increase of 16.6 points, and there was a 59.3-point premium between futures and spot prices. A larger basis creates arbitrage opportunities in the market. ]
Guest: [Third, there are more short-term speculators. Although stock index futures trading is active, most investors choose intraday trading. The maximum position of the if1005 contract was only 3,300 lots. In the end, only 2,702 contracts were held overnight. Most investors were unwilling to bear the overnight risk on weekends and chose intraday trading. Finished. ]
Guest: [The last characteristic is that most institutions have not moved. The investors on the first day of futures listing were obviously retail investors. The intraday trading volume was basically less than 10 lots, and there were only 6 orders exceeding 100 lots. Most institutions were obviously waiting and watching. Today's market situation should be a test of the waters. In terms of market conditions, except for the six largest 100-lot transactions, no large funds entered. ]
Fang Hong watched it for a while and then closed the special program. The two special guests also analyzed the six large orders in stock index futures today, but there was nothing interesting.
The capital market is hotly discussing stock index futures. In the current news, many experts in the public equity, private equity, and futures fields predict that once the stock index futures are launched, it will stimulate institutions to "grab" blue-chip stocks, leading to a wave of rises. Markets, they are worried about the short-selling nature of stock index futures, they said that this worry is somewhat excessive.
The reasons can be roughly summarized as follows: 1. The market's 3100 points is not too high, the valuation of the weighted sectors is low, and the market has no incentive to short-sell; 2. Institutions participate in stock index futures in a single way, and can only participate in hedging business under the authorization system, and cannot carry out hedging business. Speculation; 3. The current scale of stock index futures is still too small, and private equity funds and other hot funds have a relatively limited guiding role in the spot market.
The emotions of expectation and longing placed on the table seem to give people the impression that stock index futures are just a docile lamb.
But in fact, whoever regards it as a lamb is a lamb to be slaughtered.
Fang Hong looked at the news and was looking forward to it. He could only watch in silence without saying a word, and then wait for the opening of the next trading day. Add short orders.
He knew that after the launch of stock index futures, Big A was overwhelmed as soon as it came up. Big A suddenly fell like crazy and continued to fall, and the long Yin broke out without any decent rebound. This is when the A-share market entered the era of hedging. A portrait of the first month.
After that, A-shares fell for more than two months. The Shanghai Stock Exchange Index jumped from 3130.30 points, and the lowest reached just over 2300 points in early July. It was simply breathless. Even counting the contribution of new stocks during this period, the big A The total market value has also evaporated by more than 8 trillion yuan.
After plummeting in the first half of the year, it once again rose above 3100 points in the second half of the year, staged a roller coaster market of plummeting and rising, but since then, it has embarked on a long and bearish path of decline.
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