“The most important thing now is to create an efficient simulation model.”
Zhao Bingzhi said with a hint of helplessness after saying that the existing model was not very effective.
The data basis of the existing ballistic missile flight trajectory prediction model mainly comes from Dongfeng-5.
Because this ballistic missile has been in service in China for a long time, all aspects of data have been explored very clearly.
Therefore, when constructing the model, we mainly referred to the trajectory parameters of this missile.
Because the first batch of missiles that the domestic missile defense system will face will all be intercontinental ballistic missiles with a range of more than 10,000 kilometers.
This is also an important reason why the parameters of the Dongfeng-5 intercontinental ballistic missile are selected for simulation.
"What's the main problem?"
Zhang Xingyang didn't quite understand, although this kind of intercontinental ballistic missile can reach an ultra-high speed of about Mach 10 during its mid-flight.
However, because these are all first-generation intercontinental ballistic missiles, they are still parabolic in terms of ballistics, and because the missile defense system is not considered.
Therefore, no special development has been carried out in terms of mobile defense.
Their main role is to transport large-mass nuclear warheads to hostile cities.
And these are second-generation nuclear warheads with a yield of more than one million tons.
"The main reason is that the accuracy of the initial trajectory data parameters is not high."
This problem actually arose beyond all of their expectations.
For the team led by Zhao Bingzhi, they have never done this kind of work before.
So when faced with this problem, I don’t know how to deal with it.
And Zhang Xingyang did not expect that after all, the initial parameters in his mind were almost infallible.
But soon, Zhang Xingyang understood.
This problem, in detail, is actually his own problem.
Because the source of Zhao Bingzhi's initial trajectory data was actually reconnaissance satellites.
But because there were no professional missile early warning satellites in China before.
Therefore, the deviation of data sources in this area is beyond everyone's imagination.
The detection of intercontinental ballistic missiles at this time almost still relies on high-sensitivity infrared reconnaissance equipment, but the sensitivity and accuracy of infrared reconnaissance equipment on space satellites are not very high.
The navigation satellites at this time were able to achieve an accuracy of ten meters, which was considered very advanced internationally.
At present, both the domestic Beidou satellite and the GPS satellite with the widest coverage area can only achieve this level.
But for missile trajectory prediction, this accuracy is too low.
You know, the diameter of intercontinental ballistic missiles is much larger than those of ballistic missiles with a range of only a few thousand kilometers.
But it's only three or four meters in diameter.
If the anti-missile system is to accurately hit the target, it requires a prediction accuracy of at least two meters.
Otherwise, it will be difficult to directly destroy the warhead of the incoming missile from the opposite side.
This puts forward higher requirements for the data accuracy of the missile during take-off.
It's like walking on flat ground, even if the initial angle only deviates by one degree, there will be a huge deviation when you walk one kilometer.
Therefore, for missile prediction models, if the deviation of the initial data is too large, it is almost impossible to obtain an accurate trajectory.
But after thinking about this, Zhang Xingyang was helpless:
"There is no way to solve the problem of data accuracy for you yet."
"It will take at least half a year to develop our high-sensitivity infrared reconnaissance satellite."
"This is because I put a lot of pressure on the Satellite Research Institute."
"Even if the satellite is successfully developed, it will still take at least one or two months from launch to official use."
"So during this period, it is almost impossible for you to obtain higher-precision actual data."
Because the anti-missile prediction model must be based on a large amount of actual data.
Therefore, without sufficiently accurate actual emission data, it is difficult to establish a standard model.
This is like the development of nuclear weapons. Although after entering the 21st century, various countries in the world have stopped nuclear testing.
But this is based on the fact that everyone has collected enough data through dozens, hundreds or even thousands of atmospheric nuclear tests or underground nuclear tests in the past fifty years.
We have been able to establish experimental models with sufficient accuracy to develop new nuclear warheads through supercomputers that can calculate hundreds of billions of times.
Those countries that want to develop nuclear warheads simply through computer calculations without conducting nuclear experiments can only say that such a good thing only exists in dreams.
So even after the high-sensitivity infrared reconnaissance satellite of the 101 Satellite Research Institute was launched.
It is not that simple to get the data directly.
Because in addition to satellites, intercontinental ballistic missiles must be launched several times to collect data.
How can the launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile be so simple?
Not to mention the high cost of intercontinental ballistic missiles themselves.
Just the supporting various monitoring stations and ocean survey ships involve manpower and material resources that are unimaginable for ordinary small countries.
"However, if the data accuracy is set to an ideal state, what about the trajectory prediction accuracy?"
Since there are difficulties with real data, Zhang Xingyang can only place his hope on an ideal state.
In fact, the storage chip in Zhang Xingyang's mind contained a series of intercontinental ballistic missile data.
However, those missiles are basically fourth-generation ballistic missiles that will be produced decades later.
The performance in all aspects is quite different from today's first- and second-generation ballistic missiles.
If these parameters are used as the basis of the model, then with today's supercomputing speed, it may not be possible to calculate the missile trajectory even if it is given a month.
You know, the computing speed of computers is basically increasing at an exponential level.
The computing speed of the supercomputing center twenty years from now will be nearly 100 million times that of today!
Forty years later, although the computing center's speed on a single computing unit has not increased as much as 100 million times, it is due to changes in supercomputing architecture.
The overall improvement is still close to such a change.
Therefore, for supercomputers at the same time as fourth-generation ballistic missiles, it only takes a few seconds to calculate their trajectories.
However, with today's computing speed, only supercomputing at the 100 billion level level may not be able to complete the calculation in one year.
"The trajectory accuracy of ten meters can reach 100%."
Zhao Bingzhi honestly stated the accuracy range of the current missile prediction model.
"The trajectory accuracy at the five-meter level can reach 85 percent."
"The trajectory accuracy at the three-meter level can reach 78 percent."
"The trajectory accuracy at the two-meter level is only 57 percent."
"The one-meter-level trajectory accuracy is even lower, only 30 percent."
The higher the precision, the lower the accuracy.
It was in line with Zhang Xingyang's psychological expectations before coming.
After all, missile flight trajectory calculation is actually a very complicated matter.
Even for a ballistic missile in the same state, the trajectory may differ by hundreds of meters under different circumstances.
The strike accuracy of the Dongfeng-5 intercontinental ballistic missile is 500-2000 meters.
Not to mention that the production process of intercontinental ballistic missiles is almost not exactly the same.
Even a millimeter of fluctuation on the outer shell may cause deviations of several meters during flight.
Therefore, being able to achieve a prediction accuracy of 30% at the one-meter level is already very surprising data.
The National Missile Defense System was recommended by Zhang Xingyang from the beginning in terms of the way it defends against ballistic missiles.
Therefore, we directly adopted the defense method of kinetic energy destruction instead of using explosion destruction which has a high probability of failure.
Therefore, the accuracy requirement is what Zhang Xingyang values most.
After all, for kinetic energy destruction, even a slight deviation may lead to defense failure.
“Is this the latest model?”
At this time, the two people had arrived at the model construction laboratory of the supercomputing center.
The missile prediction model is actually divided into several parts.
Because the missile will actually face different situations during the entire flight.
Under different circumstances, the parameters of the model will change greatly.
Especially in the intra-atmospheric environment, because the conditions at each altitude of the atmosphere are different.
Therefore, the model is actually the most complex at this stage.
Only after the missile enters the outer atmosphere and flies and the missile trajectory stabilizes will the prediction model become simpler.
In fact, if there are several missile early warning satellites above the geostationary orbit, this problem will become simpler.
Because for today's intercontinental ballistic missiles, the mid-stage flight distance and time are very long.
Missile early warning satellites can have a long time to confirm the target and transmit the mid-course flight data of the incoming intercontinental ballistic missile to the supercomputing center on the ground.
If only the mid-flight is calculated, the calculation accuracy of the supercomputing center will be greatly improved.
Even the most difficult one-meter level accuracy can be improved to more than 80%.
But now they do not have such infrared early warning satellites, and can only start calculating from the launch of the missile.
This will greatly increase the difficulty for missile prediction models.
"Yes, this part is mainly about intra-atmospheric trajectory prediction models."
Zhao Bingzhi introduced to Zhang Xingyang the data on the computer screen that was so dense that ordinary people might get dizzy just by looking at it.
"Is this part a model of a submarine-launched missile?"
Zhang Xingyang asked, pointing to a large piece of code on the screen.
"Yes, our main reference for this part is giant waves."
Zhao Bingzhi nodded and said.
The initial goal of the missile defense system is to defend against intercontinental ballistic missiles.
Currently, there are three main launch methods for intercontinental ballistic missiles in the world.
Two of them are land-based, namely mobile missile vehicles and fixed missile silos.
And the last one is death lurking under the waves, submarine-launched intercontinental ballistic missiles in nuclear submarines.
As the last line of defense for the nuclear triad of major powers.
Land-based missile vehicles and missile silos may be destroyed by other people's missiles at the first opportunity.
However, nuclear submarines lurking hundreds of meters below the ocean can avoid the first wave of enemy attacks.
Then, without surfacing, launch a submarine-launched intercontinental ballistic nuclear missile.
Therefore, the missile defense system also attaches great importance to the defense of submarine-launched ballistic missiles.
"Julang-2?"
Zhang Xingyang asked again about the specific model.
"Yes."
After getting the definite answer, Zhang Xingyang was still a little surprised.
After all, the Julang-2 is actually the most advanced submarine-launched ballistic missile in China.
The development of the Julang-2 submarine-launched ballistic missile officially began in 1990. Due to the lack of sufficient underwater experimental data and simulation experimental equipment, many problems have arisen.
As of now in 2000, there has not yet been a formal live ammunition launch.
Even the launch of simulated warheads is expected to take two or three years.
This is why Zhang Xingyang is so surprised.
The weapons haven't been forged yet, and they have to forge shields based on the weapons.
"They are really anxious to give you this kind of immature data."
Although he was a little emotional, Zhang Xingyang knew that there was nothing he could do about it.
Because there are currently only two submarine-launched ballistic missiles in the country, Julang-1 and Julang-2.
But the range of Julang-1 is only more than 2,000 kilometers.
Although it has given the country the capability of a second nuclear strike, it is undeniable that the Julang-1 has fallen behind in the 21st century.
Therefore, if you want to achieve the primary goal of the missile defense system, you can only use the Julang-2, which has not yet completed its research and development work.
The range of the Julang-2 ballistic missile has been increased several times to more than 7,000 kilometers compared to the two thousand kilometers of the Julang-1.
My family knows their own affairs. The Rocket Research Institute where Zhang Xingyang works has a lot of cooperation with the Second Aerospace Research Institute, which develops the Julang-2 missile, and I know their situation relatively well.
Although we don’t know the current specific progress of Julang-2, judging from many situations decrypted by later generations, their current development process is not going smoothly.
The main reason is the lack of necessary simulation equipment for underwater launches, which makes it difficult to explore the situation of missiles.
Especially in the absence of simulation equipment, it is unrealistic to understand complex underwater dynamic conditions, even relying on large-scale supercomputers.
You must know that the disturbance of water flow is much stronger than the disturbance of atmosphere.
Under the same launch conditions, it is much simpler for land-based missiles to maintain stability than for underwater-launched missiles.
"That's pretty much all the data they have right now."
Zhao Bingzhi showed Zhang Xingyang the pitiful data in the computer and said.
"Underwater launches are indeed rare, but you don't need to think too much about this part."
Zhang Xingyang said after looking at the detailed data:
"Your current focus is still on the precision and accuracy of flight outside the atmosphere."
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(End of chapter)
