As we all know, Japan is a small country and its people are aggressive. The combination of these two factors has contributed to the Japanese's extremely high desire for expansion. Their dream is to break through the small island and become a mainland country.
However, Japan's national strength is not strong, and they themselves understand that they must not engage in a head-on struggle with a big country. Fighting based on resources and size will inevitably fail, so the Japanese adopted such a fighting strategy: gambling.
And it's a big gamble. A gamble is a gamble on the fate of the country. There have been several very famous gambling behaviors in the history of Japan. If you lose, you will lose everything and even your pants. If you win, you will marry Bai Fumei as CEO.
A perfect explanation of the coexistence of risks and opportunities. The first was the Sino-Japanese War of 1894-1894. Japan invested very heavily. The emperor’s personal property was used to build the navy. Through this war, Japan became the number one in Asia.
And once it fails, it almost leads to bankruptcy. But Japan finally won its bet and received 200 million taels of silver, which it then used to develop education and build a navy, laying the groundwork for continued gambling.
The second time is naturally the upcoming Russo-Japanese War. For Japan, if it wins this war, it will join the ranks of the great powers; if it loses, it may even usher in the fate of national subjugation.
Li Yu glanced at the ronin behind Toushan Man. He must have a gun and a knife on his waist. He was about to take it out just now, but after taking a look at the outline, he knew it was a revolver.
Li Yu asked: "Can I borrow Mr.'s gun?" Ronin glanced at Toushan Man, who thought for a moment and said, "Take it out." Li Yu smiled and said, "It doesn't matter if you unload the bullet." Ronin took the bullet. He took it out and placed the gun on the table.
Li Yu continued: "You want to fight with Russia, and there happens to be a game in Russia called Russian Roulette. This game is a big gamble. You put only one bullet in the gun, rotate it randomly, and then pull the trigger toward your head. If If you don't get shot, you will get a huge bonus. After all, you have placed your biggest bet - your life and fortune." Although Tou Shanman doesn't know much mathematics, he is also a smart man. He quickly learned from Li Yu's words Guessing his metaphor, now Japan is the man with the revolver.
Tou Shanman said: "Sir, continue talking." Li Yu said: "I can directly state that mathematically speaking, shooting first and then shooting are the same, and the probability of being shot is one-sixth. But the current In this situation, you have obviously fired once and were not hit; if you fire another shot at yourself, the probability of being hit is not one in six, but expanded to one in five." This involves: Some judgments of conditional probability, but the current situation is not a conditional probability situation.
Tou Shanman didn't know much about probability science, so he just made a rough guess: "Your Majesty means that the probability of being shot will become greater and greater in the future." Li Yu said, "Yes, until you are finally shot." Toushan Manman's eyebrows were tightly knitted, but he soon relaxed: "This world is cruel, and we will not retreat since we have chosen. But Your Majesty is indeed aware of it. Although he didn't say anything, but for me It sounds like everything has been said. As a scholar, I can see clearly the complicated situations in the world and give such vivid examples. I really admire him." Tou Shanman is indeed a person with a very good brain, but he is smart. Lack of intelligence and personality direction are two different things and do not go hand in hand.
Like many Japanese upper class people, he was extremely confident and did not believe that he would lose. Li Yu said: "Mr. Toushan is overly praised." Toushan Man suddenly asked: "I also want to ask, what difference will it make if I turn around once and shoot again every time?" He actually asked a good question. .
Li Yu said: "If that is the case, the probability of being shot by a latecomer will become lower and lower, and the probability of being shot will become an infinite multinomial but convergent series." Generally speaking, the probability of being shot first is 1 \/6, and then it is 5\/6 raised to the nth power and then multiplied by 1\/6, which must be getting smaller and smaller.
. Toushanman didn’t understand the second half of Li Yu’s sentence.
"convergence"
The concept of "series", but I understood Li Yu's mention that the probability of being shot will become lower and lower in the future, so he said: "In this way, won't the form become better and better, and the road will become wider and wider." Li Yu said Yuque said: "It is a pity that this situation requires reshuffling the cards every time, but the world will not completely reshuffle the cards casually. Everyone is fighting. Even I think the first scenario is too optimistic, because others give Your gun might not have six bullet holes, but five or even four." Toushan Man opened his mouth. In this case, the situation would be very tragic, and the probability of being shot was really too high.
But Toyama Manchu quickly calmed down: "I think the Japanese Empire is protected by Amaterasu, and there are so many loyal warriors. I believe there are not six bullet holes, but sixteen or twenty-six." Li The edict is noncommittal.
It is difficult to persuade the Japanese, especially the Japanese at this time, who are many extremes. Moreover, even in the 21st century, Japan still wants to gamble on its national destiny.
An example is the automobile industry. Although new energy has many visible problems, it is already a general trend.
However, Japan considered its own geographical conditions and chose to bet on hydrogen energy. Although to be honest, hydrogen energy is indeed more environmentally friendly, but you have to tell me how hydrogen comes from first.
Water turns into hydrogen? Furthermore, Japan has a large number of hydrogen energy patents in its hands. Once spread, it will indeed become a leader in the automotive industry.
However, if you study carefully, you will find that although Japan has many patents on hydrogen energy, they are basically concentrated in hydrogen storage and transportation.
The most critical hydrogen production is not available. Everyone knows that the cost of hydrogen production is extremely high and the risks are great. Japan has left this big problem to Europe, the United States and China.
If one of the European and American parties breaks through the technical difficulties of hydrogen energy, Japan can collect money for subsequent promotion.
This plan was so loud that it even traveled across the ocean and was heard by the White House, Elysee Palace, Forbidden City, and Buckingham Palace.
Everyone is not stupid. It can only be said that even if hydrogen energy has prospects, it will not be commercially available on a large scale for at least ten years or even decades.
But the Japanese seem to be used to gambling, whether it is limited by historical factors, geographical factors, or cultural factors.
Japan has several world-class automobile manufacturers, but none of them entered new energy sources early. It is already too late now.
The train will arrive in Changchun soon, and Tou Shanman must get off here, otherwise when he arrives in Harbin, there will be Russians everywhere and his movements will be very restricted.
Tou Shanman looked out the window and asked Li Yu solemnly again: "If your Majesty continues to remain neutral, I think we will meet again. When you come back by this train, I will still be in the northeast to greet you. "What this guy said seems like the Northeast is really within his grasp.
Li Yu said: "At that time, there were probably tens of thousands of Russian troops coming on the train." Tou Shanman said confidently: "With distant relations and close attacks, the Japanese Empire will not lose to them at least in the art of war. "
"Beep——" The long whistle sounded, and the train entered Changchun Station. Toushanman stood up and said, "Mr. Li Yu, we will see you later." It is very likely that they will come to the door again in the future, and they will not be able to avoid it even if they want to. Li Yu had no choice but to reply: "We will see you later." The train stopped for a long time, after all. There is currently only one main line in the Northeast, so loading and unloading takes a long time, and there is no mechanized equipment. Many tasks require manual labor.
When the train continued to move, Li Yu looked at the land outside the window in trance. Lu Bicheng, who was on the side, looked at Li Yu's melancholy expression and said, "I heard from Master Yan that back then Li Zhongtang had made a strategy to drive away tigers and devour wolves, so that the two tigers of Japan and Russia would fight. Is it possible to receive the favor of the fisherman?" Benefit?" Li Yu smiled bitterly and said: "Driving the tiger to devour the wolf? At this time and the other, Xun Yu proposed this time to Cao Cao, and he could already hold the emperor and order the princes. But now what can we do in the face of Japan and Russia? The so-called 'driving the tiger' The word 'drive' in '' naturally means having the ability to drive tigers. But now that I am just a fat chicken, should I pluck my feathers and bring an iron pot and sit in front of them to drive tigers and devour wolves?" Lu Bicheng has read it. History, but like most people today, they do not understand the general situation of the world. After all, the authorities are confused, so they asked: "What should the court do?"
"What to do?" Li Yu sighed,
"It's better to think about how to become stronger first. In the face of absolute strength, any strategy is like a child playing tricks on an old man. It is of no use. That's why I said that the metaphor of driving a tiger to devour a wolf is not appropriate. Instead, it is more like At the end of the Yuan Dynasty and the beginning of the Ming Dynasty, Chen Youliang and Zhu Yuanzhang were fighting in the south of the Yangtze River. They were fighting over who was finally qualified to eat the big fat meat of the Yuan Dynasty." Lu Bicheng understood: "We are just meat on the chopping board." Li Yu sighed: "Absolutely. . There is a saying that first-rate countries are chess players, second-rate countries are chess pieces, and third-rate countries are chessboards. If you cannot be a chess player, there is no possibility of any strategy." Lu Bicheng was also very aware: "Can't you be so desperate?" Li Yu smiled bitterly again and said: "If I insist on saying so, the war between Japan and Russia can only ease the situation in the Northeast and slow down the pace of the foreign occupation." But the strategy of exchanging space for time did not make much sense to the Qing court. .
The Qing court didn't even dare to let go of this war, so it just watched others fight in their own homes, which was very humiliating.
However, Sino-Japanese relations became better afterwards. After the Russo-Japanese War, some students studying in Japan, such as Lu Xun, became alarmed because of Japan's populism and discrimination against Chinese people. However, generally speaking, China's friendship with Japan was still improving at that time.
In addition, some people discuss things like what would happen if Russia wins. In fact, looking at the situation, we know that Britain, France, the United States and other countries are not willing to see Russia win; they also do not want Japan to win too easily, or even if Japan wins easily, it will definitely Britain and France will find opportunities to bleed.
Russia is still the ideal main force in the confrontation with Germany and Austria on the Western Front. Balance of power and mutual restraint are what the current world leaders Britain and France want to see.
If the Qing Dynasty could show some ability and willingness to fight against Japan and Russia, Britain would most likely give appropriate support to the Qing Dynasty and Japan and Russia to bleed each other, but it can only be said that the Qing Dynasty itself was too bad, really rotten to the core.
