Chapter 589 Moore’s Law and Semiconductor Processes

Style: Historical Author: Wang ZixuWords: 6340Update Time: 24/01/12 18:53:02
Zhu Jingyuan looked at the people around him. Their reactions of entering a state of thinking showed that he had already interested them all.

Then, Zhu Jingyuan himself had other thoughts.

When talking about so many game themes, Zhu Jingyuan suddenly thought of game content management.

In other words, what content can be produced, what content cannot be produced, and what kind of content can be sold to what kind of people.

For example, the grading system in Europe and the United States in the previous life.

Zhu Jingyuan immediately thought of film content management.

Everything in the film industry was done by my grandfather, and I basically had no involvement in the process.

After my grandfather passed away, no one was paying special attention to this industry. Maybe there will be a lot of bulls and horses at some point.

It's time for me, the emperor, to give some special guidance.

People in this era certainly cannot imagine the impact that may have on society when education becomes more popular and the Internet is fully rolled out.

When people of all kinds among the people have the opportunity to appear in front of the public, what kind of tricks can they do?

What I have to do as a person who has been there is to set restrictions in advance and draw up rules and boundaries for things they may do. They can't just mess around.

, the content management of poetry, opera, movies, and games should be very similar and should be as unified as possible.

The first thing that can be contacted by ordinary people and have an impact is likely to be on the Internet, and it must also be specially arranged in advance.

So Zhu Jingyuan asked Niu Jian, the great scholar next to him, to send a notice to the Ministry of Rites for a meeting in the Wenhua Hall in the afternoon.

Zhu Jingyuan then continued to deal with the matter at hand and continued to understand the achievements of the semiconductor industry in the past few years.

After the situation was almost explained, Zhu Jingyuan asked everyone to gather in the lobby of the Sheji Library and held a presentation meeting on the awards and plans.

All participants are doing their own jobs, and there is no opportunity to directly upgrade their positions now.

However, for managers, this kind of research work will accumulate qualifications.

Supervisors who have been responsible for pioneering project research will have higher priority in subsequent promotion rankings.

So Zhu Jingyuan first issued a commemorative certificate and asked the Ministry of Rites to compile a list of "semiconductor industry pioneers" for archiving.

At the same time, more substantial rewards must also be given to all ordinary workers.

That is, salary upgrades and direct bonuses.

After distributing the rewards, Zhu Jingyuan summoned the main persons in charge to a conference room and began to arrange new follow-up tasks.

Arrange the development direction and plan for the next stage of the semiconductor industry.

The most critical thing is of course the process.

Only when the process technology is improved can more transistors be stacked in a limited space, and it is possible to quickly improve chip performance.

Zhu Jingyuan was not going to refer to Moore's Law, nor was he going to make a conclusion on how long it would take for transistors to double.

Because Moore's Law itself is not a scientific "law" in the first place.

Gordon Moore summarized the situation of the semiconductor industry at that time, and then made predictions or plans for future development based on the summary.

But his predictions and plans have become industry standards to some extent.

It is also an industry slogan.

The semiconductor industry began in the business society of the United States. The initial industry environment can be said to be very chaotic.

Without unified industry standards and standardized industry chains, competition among manufacturers is equally chaotic.

Moore's conclusion that "transistors per unit area doubles every two years" has slowly become an industry standard with Intel's huge influence.

First, Intel will formulate subsequent production and upgrade plans on a two-year basis.

Microprocessors have always been the core of the entire semiconductor industry.

Downstream semiconductor manufacturers that cooperate with Intel must cooperate with Intel's production and upgrade plans.

They need to complete orders at the most appropriate time.

You can only make your own production and upgrade plans at the same time point as Intel, so that your own rhythm can be aligned with Intel.

These vendors will influence each other, and vendors that join later will also be affected.

The final result is that most manufacturers in the entire industry will default to a two-year cycle to complete a round of production and upgrade plans.

Otherwise, you will not be able to keep up with others, or others will not be able to keep up with your own pace.

No matter which situation occurs, it will cause problems in the supply chain, and the product cannot be produced on time, or some parts cannot be produced and other parts cannot be produced.

This is actually a continuous cycle of "two-year plan" that has gradually expanded to the entire industry.

If there are other top upstream manufacturers like Intel in other specific industries, they can have absolute influence in the industry.

Other upstream and downstream manufacturers must cooperate with his production plan.

Then it is very likely that there will actually be similar "industry laws" within this industry.

Because this is actually a supply chain cycle.

But this non-standard law is certainly useful, and it is very useful.

Everyone will be upgraded once every two years, using a relatively similar and large enough upgrade range, so that they can cooperate with each other very conveniently.

All manufacturers can coordinate and cooperate relatively smoothly, and the development of the entire industry will not be chaotic.

It can also urge lagging manufacturers to catch up with the pace of the entire industry as much as possible.

In an era when the semiconductor industry is in its ascendant, the semiconductor and processor industries, which are in a blue ocean state, are highly competitive and chaotic.

Intel relies on the Moore Plan with a fixed two-year cycle to guide a series of downstream manufacturers into their own rhythm.

Then Intel relied on its perfect and stable supply chain system to finally break out of the siege and gain a firm foothold.

Ultimately, Intel became the absolute industry leader in the entire microprocessor field.

This in turn keeps Moore's Law alive and well.

This two-year cycle of Moore's plan can also create huge investment attraction.

If these semiconductor manufacturers introduce the details of their technologies and ideas to traditional investors, traditional investors may be confused.

But now they say: Our products will be upgraded every two years, the performance will double in two years, and the cost will drop by half in two years.

This is very similar to the "goals" at those investment presentations.

Everyone can understand it.

The most important thing is that the development and upgrading speed of the entire industry can indeed achieve the goals they declare.

The density of transistors can literally double in two years.

They can even maintain this upgrade rate for decades.

This makes all inexperienced investors believe that they will never lose money by investing in this industry.

Therefore, although Moore's Law is not a scientific law, it is just a summary of experience and a development planning cycle, but it plays a role like a law.

It has greatly promoted the sustained and stable development of the semiconductor industry and expanded the influence of the semiconductor industry.

Formed a de facto industry development standard.

What about today’s Ming Dynasty?

Ming Dynasty already has various plans, and there is no need to shout the slogan of a two-year plan.

At the same time, the entire semiconductor industry of Ming Dynasty is completely under the complete control of the Ming royal family and the court.

All manufacturers are in the same system and naturally cooperate with each other.

There is no need to shout slogans to keep everyone in sync.

Finally, Moore has become a supply chain cycle and industry slogan, and it has basically remained so for decades.

Then this speed is not the limit of the upgrade speed of the semiconductor industry.

There must be some margin.

At the very least, Intel itself clearly has room for improvement over a period of forty years.

Otherwise Intel wouldn't have the nickname of a toothpaste factory.

Historically, Moore's slogan in 1965 was to double the number of dollars a year.

Later, it may be that it was found that this speed was difficult to achieve, or other manufacturers may not be able to keep up, so in 1975 it was changed to doubling in two years.

In 1997, he again made an informal compromise and changed it to a doubling rate of one and a half years.

In fact, from the 1970s to the beginning of the new century, the growth rate of transistors doubled every two years.

The current situation in Ming Dynasty is completely different from that of another world.

The semiconductor industry was directly promoted by the Ming Emperor and the imperial court, and both funds and policies were fully open to supply.

The corresponding personnel do not need to think about ways to attract investment.

There are also new industry groups that coordinate R&D and production rhythms without wasting time on coordinating relationships with multiple manufacturers.

The key is the correct direction given directly by the Ming Emperor.

Therefore, Daming has the opportunity to directly achieve the goal of doubling the number of transistors per unit area in one year.

In this internal meeting, Zhu Jingyuan listed all the possible effective technical directions that he knew based on his experience in his previous life.

Let Wang Lai arrange for multiple groups of people to work on these technologies separately.

First, the design logic of the stepper lithography machine is proposed, and the technical direction of microlithography is proposed.

In the original photolithography process, the precision of the circuit board master produced directly by physical and mechanical means has its limits and is relatively difficult to improve.

However, smaller chips can be produced according to large templates through projection and scaling of curved lenses.

Optical manufacturers are required to cooperate in developing higher-precision lenses.

Then directly put forward the logic of immersion lithography technology, allowing craftsmen to go directly in the direction of immersion lithography from the beginning.

According to the logic of the lithography machine, the shorter the wavelength of the light source, the smaller the chip can be produced.

But it cannot be infinitely short. The shortest X-rays will pass directly through the object, making it impossible to zoom in and out of the drawing through lenses and reflections.

It can only be used on a small number of semiconductor products with special needs after the process level has been greatly improved.

The upgrading process of conventional light sources is the process of constantly looking for light sources that are infinitely close to X-rays, but cannot produce X-ray phenomena.

The earliest lithography machine light source was visible blue light with a wavelength of 450 nanometers, which enabled micron-level processes.

In the era of microlithography, there is a rapid transition to the era of invisible ultraviolet light.

The wavelength was reduced to 365 nanometers, and the process from 800 nanometers to 280 nanometers was realized.

After that, for a long period of time, the wavelength continued to shorten within the range of ultraviolet light.

By the time the wavelength reaches the 193nm node, it can already be used to produce 280nm to 65nm process chips.

If we continued in this direction, we should have looked for a light source with a wavelength of 157 nanometers and started producing chips of 45 nanometers and below.

However, the light source development company at that time encountered difficulties, or a bottleneck, in developing a light source with a wavelength of 157 nanometers.

Nikon, the leader in the lithography industry at the time, had been working on the 157nm light source for a long time.

TSMC’s Lin Benjian found another direction.

When light enters water, it is refracted, and the wavelength of the light source is shortened accordingly.

Therefore, after 193-nanometer light passes through a layer of water, it has an effect equivalent to that of a 134-nanometer wavelength light source.

Therefore, TSMC and Asmail cooperated to develop an immersion lithography machine based on the direction proposed by Lin Benjian.

It means soaking in water for photolithography.

Continue to use the 193-nanometer light source to push the chip manufacturing process from 45 nanometers to the final limit of 7 nanometers.

It wasn't until we delved into the 5-nanometer process range that the 193-nanometer deep ultraviolet light source completely came to an end.

The semiconductor industry has to try to replace the extreme ultraviolet light source with a wavelength of 13.5 nanometers.

Therefore, for Daming, of course, it can use immersion lithography technology as soon as possible, but it must also continue to work hard on the research of new light sources.

In addition, all the successful paths that have been used in previous lives are of course already determined and feasible paths.

A path that was not taken in previous lives may not be unfeasible.

With the current Ming Dynasty's resources, other plans may appear in future generations, and the Ministry of Industry can also choose to try them.

Maybe it can achieve better results than the original road?

For example, the "Synchrotron Radiation Light Source" facility itself is a scientific research facility in other aspects, and its principle allows it to emit light of various wavelengths.

Including "extreme ultraviolet light" which is closest to X-rays.

In fact, synchrotron radiation light sources were used for research and verification in early lithography machine technology verifications in history.

However, the nature of synchrotron radiation sources makes them difficult to commercialize.

Ming Dynasty can also try to build a large-scale synchrotron radiation light source and discuss the feasibility of various light sources and lithography based on its foundation and principles.

At the same time, it can continue to operate as a scientific research device.

There are other more specific details, such as copper wire technology to improve performance, two-piece workbench design to improve efficiency, etc.

Zhu Jingyuan listed everything he could think of as his uncertain assumptions.

Let the Ministry of Industry and the Semiconductor Department arrange personnel to do research and verification.

On this basis, Zhu Jingyuan proposed more specific research and development goals for the Ministry of Industry, the Semiconductor Department, and craftsmen.

The first is the most important and core process and central processor.

Within two years, we will complete the popularization and mass production of the one-micron process, and at the same time complete the development of the next generation of general-purpose microprocessors.

The performance target for the new processing is no less than 10 million calculations per second.

It is best to reach 50 million times per second, which is close to 386 or even 486, or the level of the first generation PS game console.

At the same time, it was required that it must be a sixty-four-bit microprocessor, and the development code name was therefore directly determined to be sixty-four.

According to Zhu Jingyuan's plan, after the development of the 64-bit processor is completed, it will begin to actively promote it to the civilian market and actively develop more civilian equipment.

The way Ming Dynasty’s semiconductor industry was built was completely different from that of the United States in history.

As a business society in the United States, even for officially-led projects, the military usually provides money and technology, allowing private manufacturers to complete product development.

The advantages of this model are very obvious.

Products similar to the final product, as well as the technology generated during the development process, can enter the civilian market more quickly.

There will be many merchants trying their best to push their products to anyone with purchasing power, which is very conducive to the rapid promotion of new products.

There is no obvious limit to their theoretical profits.

In many cases, the operating state of this market is very close to a state of full competition.

But the shortcomings are also obvious.

Competition in the blue ocean market that lacks guidance will lead to all kinds of chaos.

It is easy for bad coins to drive out good coins, or even for imitators to kill the originals.

It usually takes a long period of fighting until a few manufacturers with absolute advantages join forces to barely control most of the market.

Only then can a relatively stable order and industry standards be formed.

Because when the market is in a state of melee, basically no one among the manufacturers is convinced by the other.

When any single manufacturer without advantages wants to dominate the standards in the industry, other manufacturers may oppose and cause trouble.

Prior to this, officials who did not directly control industry resources did not have the ability to require all manufacturers to implement certain standards.

But by this time, an oligopoly or even an absolute monopoly should have been formed.

The state of full competition in the market no longer exists.

For example, after Intel's Moore's Law became the industry standard, all manufacturers had to develop development plans in a two-year cycle.

Even the court's anti-monopoly laws may no longer be able to shake the status of these monopolies.

Fines are not painful for them, and the court does not have the ability to shut them down completely.

In Zhu Jingyuan's memory, similar things have happened many times.

After the second industrial revolution, in an environment of full competition without restrictions, it is very easy for oligopoly or even absolute monopoly manufacturers to be born.

The American court is powerless against Intel, Microsoft, and Qualcomm.

In the computer industry, although Intel, AMD, and Nvidia are three companies, they have cross-shareholdings and cross-licensing of patents.

They will also act as a double act as a matter of course, relying on their monopoly status to harvest huge profits alternately.

In fact, from the country's perspective, it is not impossible to harvest high profits. The key is that after competition slows down, technological progress also slows down.

Taking turns squeezing toothpaste back and forth will become the norm in the market.

This is unacceptable.

Ming’s semiconductor industry is completely government-led and completed by official agencies and manufacturers.

Currently, no private manufacturers are directly involved.

As the final decision-maker, Zhu Jingyuan would have basically not been affected if he had not taken the initiative to release related products to the civilian market.

The average person may not even know something related exists.

The shortcomings of this model are of course obvious.

The early market competition was insufficient, there was no theoretically unlimited commercial profit driver, and developers were not very motivated to upgrade and promote products.

When official manufacturers want to promote it to the private sector, it will take time and cost for private manufacturers and users to accept it.

Of course, the advantage of this model is also obvious, that is, the controllability of technology and standards.

Zhu Jingyuan's natural plan is to cultivate and plan the mainstream products and industry standards of the industry to a relatively mature state.

At the same time, wait until the products of official manufacturers can meet the needs of the court and government-run manufacturers, and then promote them to the unrestricted private market at the appropriate time.

When private manufacturers participate in this industry, the standards and specifications related to the entire industry have been determined.

And the official agencies that implement relevant standards occupy the absolute initiative.

Basic patents, typical designs, standard solutions, and general systems will all be controlled by the imperial court, government-run consortia, and royal industry systems.

If private manufacturers want to join this industry, they must do things according to the established industry standards.

Just like Zhu Jingyuan did when he started in the aviation industry.

The most ideal result is to achieve healthy and full competition after the industry threshold is relaxed.

Of course, there can be no absolutely perfect results in reality, but it is obviously correct to go in the direction of pursuing the best and getting the best.

After the microprocessor in importance is the accounting chip, that is, the DRAM memory chip.

It is also required to complete the mass production of chips with 256,000 words within two years. According to the base 1024 system, it is 256K, which is equivalent to 512KB in the previous life.

The second step is to develop the first generation of dedicated image, audio, and network processing chips within two years, that is, graphics cards, sound cards, and network cards.

Then there are hard drives with larger capacity and higher storage density, striving to increase the capacity to one billion words (1G).

Finally, several new teams will be established to complete technical verification related to optical discs, flash memory, digital cameras, and LCD screens, and come up with basic products.

(End of chapter)