Chapter 1,080 Intelligence Reliability

Style: Historical Author: Batu CavesWords: 3008Update Time: 24/01/12 10:43:36
This detailed intelligence letter from the North described in detail Cao Wei's defense plan for the Yanzhou and Heluo areas, the number of troops, the direction of troop deployment, and even the estimated time when the deployment would be in place.

Therefore, the immediate reactions of people who saw this information were actually the same.

"Prime Minister, is this true?" Jiang Xu asked with a frown after reading.

You really can't blame Jiang Xu for asking this. This information is really too detailed, and it's beyond the scope of a detailed investigation.

Li Yan even asked very straightforwardly, "Could it be that someone is already a high-ranking prime minister in Cao Wei? Why doesn't Yan know about this?!"

Li Yan directly judged that the spy sent by the Han Dynasty had infiltrated the upper echelons of Cao Wei. However, he, who was the minister, did not know anything about such a big matter.

Although Li Yan is a little petty here, but well, the dignified Shangshu Ling does not know the high-level secrets of the imperial court, so it is not surprising that Li Yan would think so.

But Zhuge Liang shook his head, and then said to Li Yan, "Zhengfang is worrying too much, let's look down first."

Li Yan was stunned for a moment, then lowered his head and continued to read the information.

The following information is somewhat wrong.

Because this piece of information not only described in detail Cao Wei's movements of troops and generals, but also Cao Wei's strategic deployment of the Heluo area, as well as the time and controversy between Cao Rui and his ministers to launch a second counterattack. This is not Things that an ordinary senior official of Cao Wei can know.

The situation described in this information is basically equivalent to the Northern Expedition plan discussed by six people in the Prime Minister's Palace, and it was known to Cao Wei's Sima Yi the next day. Someone here must be Cao Wei's spy.

But how is this possible? !

The people who can be summoned by Cao Rui for discussion are all Cao Wei's die-hard supporters, and at the very least they must be Cao Rui's confidants. In this case, even ordinary eunuchs and servants need to be avoided.

How could such a person pass information to a big man? !

Combined with the "Liu" on the signature of this information, Li Yan immediately shut up.

It's hard to ask about this matter. If you really ask, it might cause big trouble.

But Li Yan still looked at Zhuge Liang, hoping that Zhuge Liang could give an explanation.

And since Zhuge Liang was able to bring out this secret report, it meant that he trusted the other five people present, and he would naturally give an explanation.

"When Liang first received this report, he couldn't believe it. For half a year, it has been kept secret. This report is too detailed and cannot be known by anyone!!" Zhuge Liang explained to everyone.

Zhuge Liang didn't believe it at first. The first half of this information was a bit too detailed, and the second half was even more incredible.

Zhuge Liang even sent Fei Yi to Luoyang for this purpose to carefully screen the information and confirm that it indeed came from his own intelligence system.

However, even Fei Yi could only guarantee that this information came through his own intelligence system. Fei Yi also felt that the above content was too fake and unworthy of trust.

The espionage system does not mean that every time it is sent, it is true information. Under some special circumstances, the information will be distorted, or even simply false information deliberately transmitted by the enemy.

As for identifying the authenticity of the intelligence, it is what the chief officer needs to do.

The content of the intelligence this time was so outrageous that Fei Yi, the founder of the Han Dynasty intelligence system, doubted whether the intelligence system he had arranged in the north had been completely discovered and destroyed by Cao Wei's intelligence system. Cao Wei was taking advantage of the situation. Through this channel, false information is delivered to the big man and misleads the big man's judgment.

However, there is something not easy to explain about this matter. This information looks "fake" at first glance. Unless the person in charge of intelligence at Cao Wei's side is an idiot, how could he pass on such clear "fake" information.

Anyway, Fei Yi looked at it for a long time and scratched his head but couldn't figure out what was going on. Moreover, the signing of this information was indeed not in line with the habits of the Han spy system.

For this reason, Fei Yi made a special trip back to Chang'an, found the current person in charge of the intelligence system, and retrieved intelligence files from past years. Finally, he found a similarly signed piece of intelligence in the files from six years ago.

When this information was originally filed, it was noted that it was received by Xu Shu and then transferred to the Chang'an archives.

As soon as Fei Yi saw this situation, he immediately knew that it was of great importance. He immediately kept the information with the same signature and did not dare to inform Zhuge Liang in any way of correspondence, for fear that the secret would be accidentally leaked. He could only work harder on his own. He rushed back to Luoyang from Chang'an and reported the incident to Zhuge Liang face to face.

Only then did Zhuge Liang remember that when he was discussing the fourth Northern Expedition, Xu Shu had asked him a question - whether there were high-level spies in Luoyang.

Because Xu Shu asked about Luoyang at that time, not Hebei, and Zhuge Liang had many things to do, so he didn't think of it for a while.

After Fei Yi's reminder, Zhuge Liang realized that this was not the first time such information had been passed on.

But even so, Zhuge Liang still couldn't believe it.

After all, the intelligence content delivered by the "Liu" spy last time was just ordinary military intelligence, but this time the intelligence directly rose to strategic deployment and Cao Wei's court decision-making, which was very different.

Therefore, Zhuge Liang ordered Fei Yi to keep quiet, but he did not reveal the information, and then sent more detailed operations in the Heluo area to collect information.

The decisions made by Cao Wei's court cannot be verified, but for more than half a year, Zhuge Liang has been paying attention to the changes in Cao Wei's troops in the Heluo area to verify whether the first half of this information is correct.

And the facts once again proved how outrageous the content of this intelligence was.

The Luoyang Xizuo sent by Zhuge Liang can only penetrate as far as Hedong County and Hanoi County along the Yellow River. It is basically difficult to collect intelligence inside Yanzhou. This is the intelligence collection ability of Xizuo in this era.

Normally, the detailed analysis can only estimate the strength of the enemy forces in the nearby area. If the enemy is too far away or the enemy's strongholds are well-defended, even the most astute detailed analysis will not be able to obtain much information.

Logically speaking, after such a comparison, Zhuge Liang should be more doubtful about the authenticity of this information, but Zhuge Liang chose to believe it.

It's not that Zhuge Liang is stupid, but the military arrangements along the river in the two counties of Hedong and Hanoi that were sent back are basically consistent with what was written in the intelligence that was delivered half a year ago.

You must know that these Cao Weijun soldiers deployed along the river were not in their current position six months ago.

Obviously, this has been specially adjusted by the deployment of troops, and the purpose of this is probably the content of the first half of the letter - Cao Rui wants to counterattack Chang'an for the second time.

As for Cao Wei, they couldn't just sit idle and adjust their troop deployment like this just to cooperate with a piece of intelligence that looked "fake at first glance", right? !

This possibility is really too low. Compared with this possibility, Zhuge Liang is more willing to believe in the authenticity of this information.

Furthermore, it is basically true that Cao Wei sent more troops to the Heluo area and Yanzhou. Therefore, regardless of whether the intelligence is true or false, Zhuge Liang must respond in a timely manner.

Based on this judgment, Zhuge Liang suddenly ordered to summon the governors and garrison generals of various states to gather in Chang'an to discuss the fifth Northern Expedition.

On the one hand, the Han Dynasty is almost ready and should take advantage of the situation to launch the Northern Expedition.

On the other hand, they also hope to seize time, get ahead of Cao Wei, launch the Northern Expedition in advance, and break Cao Wei's attempt to attack Luoyang a second time.

Today, I took out this letter to show it to everyone who was secretly discussing the strategy, and to discuss whether we should formulate corresponding tactics based on the information on the Wei army's strength in this letter.

At the same time, it also explains why Zhang Xi did not prioritize attacking Hedong County, but chose to take the initiative in Yingchuan County.

Because according to the distribution of troops in this message, Cao Wei not only has 40,000 county soldiers and 20,000 cavalry in Hedong County, but the cavalry in Bingzhou is also ready to go south to support Hedong at any time.

As for Hanoi County, Cao Wei has now increased its troops to 40,000. The Heluo area north of the Yellow River is garrisoned with a total of 100,000 troops.

In the direction of Yanzhou, according to intelligence, among the Yanzhou County troops commanded by Sima Yi, except for Wang Ling's 10,000 troops who had declared their presence in Gong County, of the remaining 90,000, 20,000 were stationed at Hulao Pass and 70,000 were stationed. In the eastern part of Henan County, Dong County in the northeast of Yanzhou, Jiyin County, Shanyang County, and Chenliu County in the middle. Chenliu County has the largest number of troops, with a total of 40,000 troops.

If this information is true, then when the Han Dynasty attacks Hanoi and Hedong counties, it will have to face Cao Wei's 100,000 troops, and if it attacks Yingchuan County, it will only have to face 30,000 soldiers from Yingchuan itself, and possibly Chenliu County came to the rescue with 40,000 soldiers.

In other words, in terms of troop deployment, Cao Wei tended to hoard heavy troops in the Luoyang area in the northeast, and the troop deployment in Yingchuan in the southwest was limited to defense.

Which one is easy and which one is difficult is actually clear at a glance.

In addition, Zhuge Liang is not the kind of reckless man who can only attack one side. It is impossible for him to simply formulate a set of strategic plans before the war. He also has backup plans. However, everyone needs to unify their opinions. That’s all.

The premise of this unified opinion is the degree of trust in the existing information and whether to believe it.

And this question is now placed in front of the remaining five people.

(End of chapter)