In Zhang Xi's opinion, taking Jingzhou is similar to taking Jiangxia, both are a bit unreliable.
Although the power of the aristocratic families in this era is not as huge as that of the Jin Dynasty, it is still an important force that can affect the ownership of a place.
In these days, you cannot gain a foothold in a place without relying on the strength of aristocratic families.
Zhang Xi understands this, Xu Shu understands it, and Liu Bei understands it even better.
That's why Liu Bei made friends with the Jingzhou family as soon as he came to Jingzhou. It's also why Liu Biao was suspicious of Liu Bei and eventually placed him in Xinye County to guard against Cao Cao.
To the north of Xinye County is Nanyang County, which is controlled by Cao Cao. There are no large aristocratic families in the surrounding area... If Liu Bei can stand up like this, then Liu Biao will admit it too.
Although Zhuge Liang gave Liu Bei "Longzhong Dui" and told Liu Bei how to please the aristocratic family, he did not tell Liu Bei the power structure and distribution of interests within the Jingxiang aristocratic family, which are the most important.
Without knowing this, there is no way to truly obtain the support of the Jingzhou family, nor to check and balance them, and to truly gain a foothold in Jingzhou.
Zhuge Liang would not tell these things easily before he really decided to join Liu Bei.
So although Liu Bei knows what he can do to maximize his interests in the future, he still hasn't found the key to maximize his interests now.
The key to this key is Zhuge Liang.
As for Xu Shu and Zhang Xi, their thoughts were relatively simple.
They are thinking about whether the strategic layout of "Longzhong Pair" is feasible.
Xu Shu thought for a long time and remained silent for a long time.
In Xu Shu's view, Zhuge Liang's layout could be said to have taken into account all aspects. This was not a temporary idea, but something that had been planned from a long time ago. He really couldn't find any flaws for a while.
As for Zhang Xi...hehe, does he still know the biggest flaw in "Longzhong Duel"? !
There is Jingzhou, but you still think about "Donghe Sun Quan"? !
Doesn't that mean Sun Quan is regarded as a guard dog like Liu Zhang? !
Sun Shiwan, although he was troubled by foreign wars, he was also an excellent monarch in this era, and he also had the ambition to dominate the world when he was young.
At least at this time, Sun Quan, who was only in his early twenties, was not a conservative king who only knew checks and balances and palace battles.
The reason why Jiangdong Group wants Jingzhou is also very simple - Jingzhou's geographical location is too fatal for Jiangdong.
Jingzhou is in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River. If Jingzhou wants to attack Soochow, it only needs to go down the river. If Soochow wants to attack Jingzhou, it must go upstream.
The boating technology of this era was like that. In addition to manpower and wind power, the best power was water power caused by the difference in terrain.
The advantage of the upstream over the downstream is too great. Basically, I am the only one who can beat you, and you have no part in beating me. How could Soochow let the soldiers of Jingzhou hang over its head? !
Even if you are an ally, the feeling of placing your wealth and life on someone else is not very pleasant.
Of course, Soochow does not have no way to break the situation, that is, break through the Hefei line on the northern line, or attack Guangling across the sea from the east, and then occupy Yangzhou and Xuzhou. This way the way to survive is open.
But the problem is - Sun Shiwan
Worse than Xiahou Dun.
When attacking Guangling across the sea, it can be said that Chen Deng was so powerful that even Sun Ce, the master of Jiangdong development, couldn't attack him, which is understandable.
But in the battle of Hefei, Sun Shiwan lost to Zhang Babai, and he forcefully carried Zhang Liao into the martial arts temple of later generations... There was really no one left.
Zhang Xi had to save some face for his idol in front of Zhuge Liang. He did not point out Zhuge Liang's "omission" on the spot, but brought it up afterward when discussing with Xu Shu.
But Xu Shu disagreed with this.
"As Yuan Chang said, Jiangdong has long wanted to pursue Jingzhou. However, Jingzhou has a favorable terrain and has Cao Cao's enemy in the north. Once the two families form an alliance, how can Jiangdong be so unwise?!" Xu Shu asked.
Well...people in Jiangdong are evil.
A small Jiangdong can be divided into three or four interest groups. Half of them want to live a good life by guarding their own one-third of an acre of land, while the other half want to make progress in the Central Plains... The final result of the compromise is After occupying Jingzhou, stay behind closed doors.
"Furthermore, as Kong Ming said, the land of Jingzhou should be the foundation, and the lord only needs to be careful. With the terrain of Jingzhou, what can Jiangdong do?!" Xu Shu smiled and said with a little contempt, "Jiangdong is the most important place in the southeast. If you don’t have enough strength, it’s hard to attack Jiangxia, how can you dare to invade Jingzhou in a large scale?!”
...At that time, my lord entered Sichuan and had just captured Hanzhong and had not recovered yet. Our second master was also powerful in China. He was killed in the ban and beheaded Pangde, besieged Xiangyang, and was advancing on Fancheng... Who was it at this time? I can think of a villain from Jiangdong who doesn't practice martial arts and plays sneak attacks.
"Finally, there is no way out for Jiangdong. All you need to do is find the right opportunity, head north to Hefei, and peek at Xuzhou. If you advance, you can occupy the Central Plains, and if you retreat, you can divide the world with your lord. Why do you have to stare at Jingzhou?!"
...We won’t say anything anymore, it’s all Sun Shiwan’s fault! ! !
Now Zhang Xi finally understands why Zhuge Liang didn't make many arrangements for Jiangdong's attack on Jingzhou in "Longzhong Dui".
Because Zhuge Liang felt that the land of Jingzhou was actually a stable place.
First, once the two families form an alliance, the common enemy is Cao Cao. Cao Cao occupies the land of seven states in the world. If the Sun and Liu families are combined, even if they take Xichuan, they will only take the land of three states, which is not at the same level.
Sun Wu had no reason to leave Cao Cao alone and insisted on attacking his allies.
Secondly, Jingzhou occupies a favorable geographical location, and attacking Jingzhou requires naval forces. However, although the navy in Jiangdong is known as the best in the world, it is difficult to conquer Jiangxia. How dare you go upstream to attack Nanjun and other places? !
Finally, and most importantly, Zhuge Liang gave Sun Quan a way out. As long as he captured Hefei, or relied on the power of the navy to capture Guangling and advance into Xuzhou, Sun Wu would not have to be trapped in one place, nor would he need to worry about Jingzhou flowing down the river. threaten.
As for when the two families encroach on Cao Cao's territory and break the balance of the alliance, a new strategy will naturally come out.
No strategy can ever remain the same forever.
The reason why "Longzhong Dui" has been discussed so much by later generations is purely because "Longzhong Dui" has not been realized at all, which gives future generations room for discussion. Once it is realized, this "Longzhong Dui" will not is too important, it will be replaced by another more important strategic plan.
Including Lu Su's "Couch Policy", this is also the same truth.
Moreover, the strategic plan of "Longzhong Pair" was actually a compressed version from the beginning and was incomplete.
"Longzhong Dui" required Liu Bei to occupy all of Jingzhou, but in fact Liu Bei only occupied half of Nanjun. Important places such as the northern part of Nanjun and Xiangyang were still in Cao Cao's hands.
Afterwards, although Liu Bei took all of Xichuan in accordance with the requirements of "Longzhong Dui", Jingzhou was always a big problem. Liu Bei never fully owned Jingzhou.
Therefore, "Longzhong Dui" was a deformity from the beginning, and it failed to grow in the end, but some people blamed Zhuge Liang for not planning it well... This is somewhat shameless.
Furthermore, regardless of the Romance of the Three Kingdoms or history, Lu Meng's sneak attack on Jingzhou is Sun Quan's unkindness no matter how you look at it.
Some people always say "Liu Bei borrowed Jingzhou and never repaid it." But in fact, it is still questionable whether Liu Bei borrowed Jingzhou, and even if he borrowed it, Liu Bei later paid it back.
In the 20th year of Jian'an, Liu Bei had just pacified Xichuan. Sun Quan was dissatisfied with the fact that he only had Jiangxia County in Jingzhou. He asked Liu Bei for Jingzhou but was rejected. In anger, he sent troops to the four counties in Jingnan. Liu Bei led his troops to confront Sun Quan. This is " Demarcation of the Xiangshui River".
At that time, Liu Bei's strength was no worse than that of Sun Quan, but because he heard that Cao Cao personally led troops to Hanzhong, Liu Bei wanted to go west to compete with Cao Cao for Hanzhong, so he made concessions to Sun Quan.
The two parties agreed to use the Xiang River as the boundary, and the three counties of Changsha, Guiyang, and Jiangxia would belong to Sun Quan, and the three counties of Wuling, Lingling, and Nanjun would belong to Liu Bei.
It was at this time that there was no longer any "borrowing" of Jingzhou. The two sides had already divided the ownership of Jingzhou, and Liu Bei had "returned" Jingzhou.
You can't ask Liu Bei to lend you half of Nanjun and then help you work for free, and give you the entire Jingzhou, right? !
Under such circumstances, it would be morally and rationally unjustifiable for Jiangdong to launch another sneak attack.
On the whole, there is actually no big problem with the planning of "Longzhong Dui". Zhuge Liang has taken everything into consideration, but Zhuge Liang did not expect that the situation would change so quickly.
One is that Jingzhou would surrender so quickly, giving Liu Bei no chance to take over Jingzhou.
The other one is that Jiangdong Group is so shameless and doesn't care about the future at all. It only cares about the three melons and two dates in front of it.
This is not Zhuge Liang's fault. If Zhuge Liang could even predict this, then Zhang Xi would have to wonder whether he had checked the password with Zhuge Liang first.
For example, if you say something like "odd changes to even, the same", see if he can say "see the quadrants for symbols".
In short, Zhang Xi and Xu Shu persisted in their concerns about Sun Quanfang and repeatedly emphasized that Jingzhou should not be taken lightly. Xu Shu, while confirming Zhang Xi's concerns, was more inclined to Zhuge Liang and said that there was no need to worry too much.
There have been so many heroes in Jiangdong since ancient times... It can't be that there are no smart people among the people of Jiangdong, and they can't understand this troubled world, right? !
In this regard, Zhang Xi can only say... People's positions will change. Sometimes, even if they can see clearly, they will draw different conclusions from different positions.
Zhou Yu is a talented person in the world, but he does not agree to form an alliance with Liu Bei, nor does he agree to "lend" Nanjun to Liu Bei, because he feels that Jiangdong alone is enough to resist Cao Cao in the north.
Even Lu Su, who advocated "borrowing" Nanjun, did not go to Guan Yu "alone" to ask for Nanjun. Even when Sun Quan sent Lu Meng to send troops to the four counties of Jingnan to delimit the Xiang River, he did not raise any objections.
However, Zhang Xi can only express his opinions to Xu Shu now. If you ask him to modify this "Longzhong Dui", he really can't do it.
It can't be changed to "Defend Sun Quan from the East"...
It is necessary to have a good relationship with Sun Quan. After all, only by uniting the two families can there be a glimmer of hope against Cao Cao.
If both sides fight, they will die faster.
But while you are talking about building a good relationship with Sun Quan, you are also saying that you cannot trust Sun Quan... In the eyes of people of this era, this person is somewhat crazy.
Another reason why Zhuge Liang did not state his true attitude towards Sun Quan in "Longzhong Dui" is that there are some things that can only be done but not said.
It’s okay if everyone knows it well. You can do it secretly, but you can’t say it out loud.
Especially in an article like "Longzhong Dui", which is obviously meant to be spread by others, not even a single word can be written.
I haven't seen the actual practice of "Longzhong Dui". Is it all in Zhuge Liang's belly? Only Liu Bei asked him would he say... He didn't write these things on the bamboo slips.
This is the reason why later generations cannot see Zhuge Liang's true attitude towards Soochow. In fact, historically speaking, Liu Bei's side did not really believe in Jiangdong from beginning to end.
Of course, Jiang Dong never really regarded Liu Bei as an ally.
