Chen Nian's plan was actually very simple. He knew that since some things were bound to happen, he might as well intervene and make it happen in advance.
Doing so is not without its disadvantages, but under the premise that sanctions have already begun to show their signs, Chen Nian believes that this is the only opportunity to create a window period.
It is true that detonating a financial crisis, especially when the financial environment in the United States is worse than in the previous life, will inevitably lead to more serious global inflation. In order to pass on domestic conflicts, the other side will definitely release water to maintain stability. A chain reaction will follow. Next, the country will be hit by imported inflation.
However, the world that Chen Nian lives in now has an absolute advantage, that is, he has something in his hands.
As long as there is a link, you can develop science and technology at a speed that exceeds the laws of economic and technological development, create scientific and technological achievements, and use these scientific and technological achievements to reversely increase productivity, expand demand, and absorb the negative effects caused by severe inflation.
In this way, even if the authorities use the "overdraft potential" method to respond to the crisis like in the previous life, the final result will be controllable.
Hot money will not flow into real estate, but into the new technologies and industries created by ourselves.
In particular, the long tail effect brought about by the development of the construction machinery field, the effect of rapid infrastructure construction will become more obvious.
By then, the typical depression in the steel industry during the 2008 financial crisis may not have happened at all.
Not to mention depression, in the context of massive infrastructure construction, it is still unclear whether steel is enough.
After all, even now, under the influence of increased arms export orders, increased aircraft production, and Deep Blue 16 and surrounding projects, the domestic steel market has shown obvious growth momentum.
At that time, how to get more mines and smelt more iron may be the real issue that needs to be considered.
Thinking of this, Chen Nian breathed a sigh of relief.
The direction is basically clear, so the next thing I have to do is to export the technology as soon as possible and present all the key nodes required for construction machinery in the form of documents.
Chen Nian said goodbye to Chen Guo, and after returning to his residence, he non-stop unfolded the white paper he had prepared long ago, and began to output technical results one by one based on the knowledge in his mind.
I have to say, this is a tough job.
There were two roads before him.
Or, just ignore whatever is in your mind and just write it all down and put it all on paper.
Or, just refine it yourself first, straighten out the logic, clarify the key points, and then write out the key points after evaluating the difficulty of each module and link.
The former requires a lot of highly repetitive work and is purely manual labor.
The latter requires adding your own thinking, which actually does not save much time.
After comprehensive consideration, Chen Nian chose the second path.
Although this path also cannot bring about an increase in knowledge, nor will there be any source of income, but at least it can exercise his logical thinking ability.
Therefore, Chen Nian spent the whole night struggling with the first equipment of the Yishan project.
It wasn't until the sky got brighter and the sun began to rise that he finally completed the output of all key technologies of the heavy excavator WK-75.
This is already a simplified version that cannot be simplified.
But he believes that even with this version alone, XCMG should be able to perfectly reproduce this legendary heavy excavator.
After sorting out the thick pile of documents, Chen Nian finally breathed a sigh of relief.
He called Chen Guo and asked him to come over and pick up the documents, then threw himself on the bed and fell asleep.
At this moment, the preliminary preparations for the Yishan project have officially begun.
Shanghai.
After confirming the information provided by Chen Nian, Chen Feiyun could not calm down for a long time.
From those limited pieces of information, he saw major opportunities. It could even be said that he saw the legendary "national destiny."
The financial crisis is coming.
Moreover, once this financial crisis breaks out and we guide it properly, the people who will be hurt the most will be the foundation of the entire American economic system, that is, their middle class.
After all, whether it is speculative real estate or CDS, they are not something that the bottom people who are struggling on the so-called "average level" can play with, and most of the real top 1% rich people will not get involved in this kind of risk process. High investment method.
Only the middle class who have certain financial strength but seriously lack investment channels will participate in such a gamble in order to get a chance to get rich overnight.
They didn't think they would lose - maybe they did, but they did overestimate their abilities.
Their shallow prediction of the consequences will teach them a painful lesson.
Chen Feiyun stared closely at the screen in front of him. On the screen was the latest data on CDS and US housing prices that he had collected from various channels.
From this data, he tried to analyze a key node that could be exploited.
Now, the entire financial market is like a city wall. It seems to be extremely strong, but as long as the "stress concentration point" is found, the entire wall can be knocked down at a very small cost.
In what direction do you start?
Chen Feiyun's brain was running rapidly, ruling out one possibility after another.
First of all, it is absolutely impossible to try to directly impact the CDS market. As of September this year, the nominal market holdings of CDS in the United States have reached an astonishing 49.2 trillion.
Under such a size, it is undoubtedly a fantasy to rely on one's own funds to control the entire market.
According to this logic, all the purely financial methods that I am good at should be said to be ineffective.
Then, we can only start from the field of real economy.
The direction is clear, which is to lower overall price expectations in the U.S. real estate market.
As long as the price of "real estate futures" decreases, the spot price will also collapse.
The collapse of existing housing prices will immediately lead to an increase in default rates, and then trigger an avalanche effect, resulting in large-scale defaults.
But what to do?
Reduce demand?
impossible.
Due to the special nature of subprime loans, most home buyers have so-called "rigorous needs." It cannot be said that it is difficult to persuade them not to buy a house anymore. It should be said that it is almost impossible.
It is even more impossible for speculators. They originally participated in this market after seeing the trend of rising house prices. Now you tell them not to buy, lest house prices rise too fast. Isn't this trying to cover up the truth?
policy?
Stop making trouble. Now the US government is eager for housing prices to rise even higher to make up for the current fiscal gap. How could they cut off an arm at this time?
Demand cannot fall, and policies will not change. So what about reducing real estate developers’ costs?
No, the real estate industry is a special industry. Cost is not the main factor that determines the selling price. Even if the cost does drop, the only impact is just to make real estate developers earn more.
For a moment, Chen Feiyun fell into confusion.
This feeling is like seeing a gold mine on the top of a mountain but unable to find the way up the mountain.
The only solution he could see was to expand housing supply.
But the question is, who will do this action?
Chen Feiyun suddenly had a flash of inspiration, and he thought of a possibility.
Perhaps, the time has indeed come for domestic real estate developers to go overseas.
Two days later, inside the R&F Real Estate headquarters building.
Zhang Lilun was sitting behind the boss's chair behind his desk, drinking tea worth tens of thousands of yuan from a cheap enamel tea cup with a leisurely expression, and said to Chen Feiyun in front of him:
"Professor Chen, what you are talking about is not that I won't help you, but the problem is that there is really nothing we can do."
"You also know that the domestic real estate market is developing rapidly. Our company has made a lot of money every year relying on domestic investment."
"Now, you are asking us to allocate funds, abandon domestic projects, and invest in a market with higher risks, worse environment, and more unfamiliar to us. Aren't you making things difficult for us?"
"Besides, to take a step back, we have indeed considered the Americas strategy, but the problem is that we lack a suitable opportunity to enter the U.S. market."
"Similarly, we also lack a grip."
"If you want to carry a bowl to eat, then at least the bowl must have a handle, otherwise it will be easily burned."
Chen Feiyun had long expected that the other party would say such words. He smiled and did not answer directly, but asked:
"So in your opinion, what is the development path of R&F Group?"
"Continue to expand domestically, from residential to commercial real estate, and continue to drive up real estate prices. Like Li Ka-shing did back then, he created all kinds of shared areas, all kinds of property fees, and all kinds of money to use it to cut off the common people?"
"Do you think you can continue on this road?"
"Maybe in a short period of time, you guys can really make money."
"But I want to remind you that some people will not only be nailed to the pillar of shame, but will also be settled by the future."
"If you are really a far-sighted businessman, you should think carefully about how to make your company survive healthily."
Hearing Chen Feiyun's words, Zhang Lilun couldn't help but frowned.
"Professor Chen, are you threatening me?"
"Isn't this a bit too much? I'm just a businessman, and everything I do is just to make some money. Are you so impatient?"
Chen Feiyun paid no attention to the provocation in his words, but answered directly:
"Threats are out of the question, I'm just showing you a clear path."
"We know very well what you real estate developers want to do."
"If we go back a few years, maybe we really can't do anything to you, but now, what I can tell you is: the direction of the wind has changed."
"In this wind, you only have two choices."
"Either you do as we say."
"Either you can wander around for a few more years, but I promise, you will put your name on my name."
"you?"
Zhang Lilun looked at Chen Feiyun suspiciously, with some contempt in his eyes.
In his opinion, no matter how high his reputation in China is, Chen Feiyun is nothing more than a "consultant" in the field of economics.
He may be able to influence the decision-making of the upper management to a certain extent, but how much influence is there?
In fact, everyone knows it well.
So, so what if I put my name on it?
What, do you still want to go to the boss to read my book?
Thinking of this, he said:
"Professor Chen, if you want to talk like this, then I have nothing to say."
"I cannot accept such threats. If there is nothing else, then I will see you off."
With that said, Zhang Lilun stood up and made a "please" gesture.
Chen Feiyun didn't say much, but walked straight out of the office.
In fact, he had already prepared himself mentally before coming.
It is definitely not that easy to convince these real estate developers who are living too comfortably in China.
As Zhang Lilun said, the domestic market alone is enough for them to make a lot of money, so why bother to go to foreign countries to develop in a thankless way?
Not only R&F, but several real estate developers including Greenland and New World actually gave him the same reply.
Such a reply did not make him feel disappointed, but made him a little excited.
The principles have been explained clearly, and the pros and cons have been conveyed to you.
If you insist on going all the way to the dark side, if you insist on planting leeks and cutting them, then don’t blame us for cutting you when the leeks grow well.
With this in mind, Chen Feiyun walked out of the R&F Group building. However, what he didn't expect was that before he could even walk down the steps, Zhang Lilun was already chasing after him.
"Professor Chen! Professor Chen!"
Zhang Lilun ran forward panting and took Chen Feiyun's arm.
"Professor Chen, I was wrong, I'm sorry!"
"Give me a chance, give me another chance"
His expression was extremely humble, even a little scared.
That kind of behavior is like a child who has made a mistake. Before the parents have time to react, he has already prepared the whip and stick, and wants the parents to beat him immediately so that he can feel relieved.
Chen Feiyun looked at Zhang Lilun in surprise and asked:
"Who did you call?"
Zhang Lilun hesitated for a moment and replied:
"Mr. Liu from Poly."
"You guessed it. Then why did you come to me?"
"You all know that Poly is involved, and you know that they are our guarantee. Do you think you still have hope?"
"To be honest, I was quite optimistic about you at first, but now, I can only say that I have no regrets."
Saying that, Chen Feiyun was about to throw away Zhang Lilun's hand, but Zhang Lilun's reaction was also quick. He grabbed Chen Feiyun's sleeve and begged:
"Professor Chen, give me another chance!"
"Just pretend what happened just now never happened!"
"It's my dog's brain that's broken, my rat's eyes that are short-sighted!"
“Give us this opportunity, we can do what Poly can do!”
"Also, I know why you are looking for us. We are connected with 555 Fulton. As long as you give us this opportunity, I guarantee that R&F Group will invest its own money to acquire 555 Fulton as a starting point for Poly!"
After hearing Zhang Lilun's words, Chen Feiyun's expression finally softened a bit.
It seems that this person is not stupid.
That's right, the reason why I found R&F Group was because of their relationship.
If they can win over the American real estate company 555 Fulton, then the subsequent actions will be much simpler.
After pretending to hesitate for a moment, Chen Feiyun replied:
"There is a meeting next week, you can come too. The address will be notified separately."
"Thank you! Thank you!"
Zhang Lilun kept shaking Chen Feiyun's hand until the latter became impatient, then he called his driver and sent Chen Feiyun away.
Sitting in the car, Chen Feiyun let out a sigh of relief and finally had a smile on his face.
Don’t you want to cut leeks?
It’s boring to cut too many crops in the country.
Now, I give you the opportunity to go to the United States and harvest their leeks.
(End of chapter)
