“I believe that what happened recently at Nasdaq has had a certain impact on everyone, and at the same time, public opinion has never been more intense about the Internet.
We hope that this dialogue can give some confidence and some thinking to Internet practitioners present and those who have obtained relevant information through media reports and spontaneous publicity.
Except for me, everyone here is in charge of Internet companies with a market value of 100 billion US dollars. Microsoft's market value has exceeded 500 billion US dollars. I believe their thinking about the Internet will be very valuable.
Gates, do you think the Internet is a bubble? "
Bill Gates, who was wearing a blue shirt and beige jacket, looked very cautious. He looked like he was trying to cheer up: "I think there is a certain bubble.
The main reason is that some companies inflate their market value by forging financial reports. This behavior is a kind of deception, but the consequences require all Internet companies to pay for them.
This is one of the most important reasons for the Nasdaq crisis, and the other is that the current market value is overdrafted to a certain extent.
At the same time, superimposing the Fed's interest rate hikes can easily form a reverse cycle. "
After Bill Gates finished speaking, Zhou Xin took over: "It seems that Bill is not very optimistic about the current situation of Internet companies. How about you, Jerry?"
Jerry Yang is also a little gloomy. Under the strong challenge of Quora, Yahoo is far from being as prosperous as it was in history. At its peak, the market value will exceed 100 billion US dollars.
Time Warner, which was acquired by Quora, was far behind. This made Yang Zhiyuan, who was the first to realize Zhou Xin's value, very dissatisfied. He was dissatisfied that Yahoo's board of directors did not make the decision to acquire Riot Games at a high price and let Zhou Xin work for Yahoo.
When they reviewed the game later, they believed that since Zhou Xin would sell Quora, in 1998 when Riot Games was just becoming famous, as long as the chips offered were high enough, Zhou Xin would have a high chance of selling Riot and working for Yahoo.
Jerry Yang looked at the ground with the microphone and said in Mandarin with a curvy accent: "I also think there is a bubble now.
The fundamental reason for this bubble is that the development of Internet companies has not kept up with investors' expectations.
At present, only Quora is the only company that has explored a stable profit model with large profits and high growth.
After other Internet companies raised large amounts of funds from the capital market, they did not find a stable profit model. Yahoo's current profit model is only advertising.
After the success of Quora, we also tried to launch the Yahoo version of the subscription magazine. However, compared with Quora Gold Selection, our number of subscribers, average monthly income on the project, repurchase rate, etc. are far behind Quora. .
The more we study at Yahoo, the more we realize that Quora is an amazing product that fully embodies the spirit of openness, collaboration, speed and sharing on the Internet. The only thing that is not in line with the spirit of the Internet is that its user mechanism is not very equal.
Yahoo's version of online subscription magazines requires dedicated editors and writers. Even if their content has a user rating mechanism, it is still difficult to ensure that the content is liked by users. We also want to adopt the quora mechanism, but the quality of answers in the Yahoo Q&A section does not meet the requirements of Internet magazines.
Many traditional print media, such as the New York Times and Wall Street Journal, are exploring models similar to Quora, but their online paid magazine subscriptions have also not achieved very good results.
Therefore, I believe that the Internet bubble exists. If the true value of Internet companies wants to match the current price, more quora must appear and more profit models must be found. "
Jerry Yang talked a lot. When he mentioned the spirit of the Internet and the openness and sharing within it, Bill Gates looked unnatural.
Because Microsoft has long faced an investigation by the Federal Trade Commission into abusing its monopoly in the PC operating system market.
There has been a deadlock in this field before. Since last year, the local court began to formally sue Microsoft. And last month, the court announced its findings that Microsoft's dominant position in the X86-based personal computer operating system market constitutes a substantial monopoly.
Monopoly and openness are naturally antagonistic.
Another Gerald Wright was equally unhappy. Quora was already a product of Time Warner. Jerry Yang had said everything he wanted to say. What would he say when it was his turn?
"Jerry, what about you?" Zhou Xin turned to Gerald.
The audience found it very interesting. Of the four famous entrepreneurs on the stage, two spoke Chinese and two spoke English.
At the same time, it is intertwined with translation, making the whole scene very funny.
Zhou Xin also felt this abnormality, and the idea of checking his accent flashed in his mind.
There is no guarantee that this video will be pulled out and edited into a ghost video in the future, and he does not want his material to become a ghost zone material.
When Zhou Xin’s thoughts drifted far away, Gerrard smiled and said: “This is the issue that people are most concerned about now, and it is also what is happening right now.
The Nasdaq index fell by more than 10%. From commentators in the financial field to economists who are looking forward to a sharp decline in the market value of Internet companies, as well as short-selling investors on Wall Street, their voices have formed a consensus to some extent. a consensus.
That is, it is a bubble now. In my opinion, do the current Nasdaq Internet companies have a bubble?
I think it does exist, but whether the bubble is as big as the consensus thinks, I don’t think it is.
There are Internet companies that pretend to make huge profits by falsifying financial data, and there are also companies that achieve huge profits by relying on countless users.
This fall in the Nasdaq index is an opportunity. It is an excellent opportunity for the market to distinguish truly valuable Internet companies from worthless Internet companies.
When Jerry was talking about Quora just now, he was full of envy for Quora's business model and achievements.
Whether it's Yahoo, Microsoft's MSN, or traditional print media, they are trying to learn the payment model of Quora's Golden Selection.
I am very grateful to Newman for laying a good foundation for quora and laying the business model that makes quora what it is now.
Newman is definitely the best talent in the product field and a magician who can see into people's minds.
Similarly, the number of paying users of Quora can maintain a rapid growth trend based on the huge number during Newman's time. This is inseparable from the use of Time Warner's channels to promote Quora after Time Warner took over.
The parallel approach of online and offline media is an important reason why Quora can still maintain rapid growth.
Therefore, I instead believe that the sharp decline in the market value of Internet companies on Nasdaq is an excellent opportunity for companies in traditional industries to merge with Internet companies. "
This is indeed Gerald Wright's way of thinking. Originally, AOL acquired Time Warner. After the Nasdaq index fell sharply, Time Warner in turn acquired AOL.
Zhou Xin finally said: “Everyone has analyzed the current collapse of the Nasdaq Index from their own point of view. Everyone believes that there is a bubble in the market value of Internet companies.
I also hold this view, and I can conclude that this round of decline is only the beginning and is far from the end.
Even if the Nasdaq index falls by 20% or 30%, it is not the end.
According to my observations in Silicon Valley, a large number of Internet companies have not yet achieved profitability, and even without much revenue, they can list on the Nasdaq exchange and raise large amounts of funds based on concepts alone.
After raising funds, they did not think about how to run the company and use the company's main business to find profit models, but invested heavily in advertising and marketing.
This is obviously unsustainable. "
It is precisely because of these Internet companies' large-scale advertising that Yahoo can achieve profitability.
“MicroStrategy’s financial fraud incident was the trigger for the Nasdaq index’s decline, and with MicroStrategy’s past experience, other Internet companies are unlikely to engage in financial fraud again.
When the financial reports of Internet companies are released in batches around March next year, the fact of huge losses will not be concealed.
After the lie that users will make profits has been exposed, the Nasdaq index will experience an even greater decline. "
The four big guys on the stage all gave unanimous conclusions, and Zhou Xin even gave a complete logical reasoning.
This made the hearts of the Internet practitioners in China in the audience sink. Everyone still held the illusion of phased adjustment, thinking that in the 21st century, Internet companies would pick up, and they could also get venture capital from international capital.
Now it seems that this is not a phased adjustment, this will be a long winter.
"Fortunately, we just received US$5 million in financing from Goldman Sachs. If it were now, even if you joined us, it would be difficult for us to obtain this financing." Jack Ma whispered to Cai Chongxin in the audience.
"It seems that this will be a long cold winter, and all the US$5 million in financing must be spent wisely." Jackma's expression was slightly ferocious.
Tsai Chongxin replied: "Yes, that's why I was so anxious when negotiating with Goldman Sachs, I would rather retreat to get the money first.
The information I got from the third quarter financial report and communication with Wall Street friends, combined with the two, is that the bursting of the Nasdaq bubble is inevitable, but I don’t know when it will be burst.
Now it seems that the China Internet Conference will be the key, and Newman’s words will definitely be reported back by the American media.
The investment banks that should retreat on Wall Street have almost withdrawn. It is time to harvest retail investors and small and medium-sized investment institutions. "
Jackma asked: "When do you think this round of decline will end?"
Tsai Chongxin replied: "Based on my understanding of Wall Street, it will end around March. Before that, it will fall through the psychological bottom line of every lucky investor in an overwhelming manner. Then in March, when the annual reports for the past year are intensively released, Complete the final drop.”
Jack Ma and Cai Chongxin were thankful that Ah Li escaped death and grabbed the last parachute before the plane landed. The other Ma was not so lucky.
The highest income tax to be paid is 45%, and Zhou Xin paid 37%. There are many ways to avoid taxes, but Zhou Xin did not take them because he does not trust those accounting firms. He cannot make mistakes. If there are any mistakes in their plans, it will be a big trouble. , and even the accounting firm may deliberately give Zhou Xin a plan with hidden loopholes.
(End of chapter)
