“We need to have an understanding that there are no absolute advantages or disadvantages in technical routes.
Even if the Lion City's biophotovoltaic technology has advantages in all technical indicators, this does not mean that we have to give up our country's photovoltaic industry.
Previously, foreign countries had comprehensive advantages in the semiconductor field, from cost to technical indicators to the degree of adaptability of the entire industry chain, and were superior to China.
China has never given up its support for domestic semiconductor companies, although its support for these companies was not enough before 2018.
Let them be in a half-dead stage, but they will never give up their own industries just because other countries' products are good.
Because the relevant considerations are based on the strategic security level.
Judging from your age, most of you have experienced the wave of localization of the semiconductor industry chain more than ten years ago. "
"Professor Zhu is right.
For us, companies that survive by relying on policies make no sense.
Although he survived, neither profit nor revenue were included in our investment considerations.
Not to mention that only relying on policies alone can survive.
Small and medium-sized enterprises, especially those that have launched a large number of related industrial chains due to the boom in the photovoltaic industry but do not have technological and market advantages, may not be able to survive this year. "
"I got you.
Companies that survive in this way have no investment value. "
“Yes, just like Ziguang Group, if they had not acquired h3c, even if the other party was a school enterprise of Shuimu University, we would not consider investing in Ziguang-based companies.
First they acquired h3c, and then they caught up with the wave of localization of semiconductors, so that it could become the object of capital attention.
If it were not for the superposition of two factors, Ziguang Guowei, a subsidiary of Ziguang Group, would not be the first semiconductor company to rise sharply. "
In the bull market of 2020, the first among the semiconductor companies to start was Ziguang Guowei. Ziguang Guowei made changes together with the brokerage sector, one week earlier than other semiconductor companies.
Professor Zhu nodded. After thinking for a moment, he said:
“Going back to what I said before, there is no good or bad technical route.
In other words, there is no absolute distinction between good and bad.
It just means that from an economic perspective, technical routes with early advantages will be supported, while technical routes without advantages will soon disappear without additional resource investment.
Resources are limited, and money is the amplifier of scientific research.
However, in fact, some technical routes that require less initial investment and quick results may not be able to maintain this advantage in the later stages.
For example, silicon-based chips developed rapidly in the early stage, and the technology developed so rapidly that there is a special Moore's Law.
Costs double every two years while prices drop to half their original value.
From the perspective of the time, this was an advantageous technical route.
As technology develops, computer performance will become more and more advantageous.
How could anyone invest in biocomputers?
Except for some scientific research studies.
For enterprises, biological computers have no advantages in terms of performance or cost.
But judging from biological storage and the recent emergence of virtual reality devices, biological computers seem to be a technical route with a higher ceiling.
With the current accuracy of traditional silicon-based chips, Moore's Law has expired.
But can we blame those who chose the carbon-based chip technology route at that time?
Can academia and industry be blamed for not investing more in carbon-based chips?
No, because from the perspective of the time, no one would be willing to invest heavily in the research and development of carbon-based chips.
You may invest 100 billion yuan without seeing any substantial technological progress. "
The number of transistors on a chip is getting smaller and smaller, and temperature and leakage make it increasingly difficult to develop silicon-based chips.
In order to break this shackles in recent years, chip manufacturers have developed from flat to vertical stacking.
"Professor Zhu, I didn't expect you to know much about the chip industry."
“Photovoltaics are also silicon wafers, and the semiconductor industry is also silicon wafers.
I understand somewhat. "
"Then do you think Chinese companies can really make photonic chips?"
Professor Zhu’s eyes were much larger than usual: “Which company made the photonic chip?
Ke Chuang Biology? "
"No, it's another listed company called ** Chip. It was a laboratory product before. They made the world's first photonic chip prototype board in 2019.
Recently, it was said that it was making a photonic chip for personal use, but just after the announcement, Kechuang Biotech launched a virtual reality device.
But after we investigated this company, we felt that it still had investment potential. "
"Sorry, I'm not engaged in research in this field, and I don't know much about photonic chips.
Judging from my personal intuition, since it was not launched by Kechuang Biotechnology, does this product already have similar products abroad? Then, as a chaser, we developed similar products.
If we are pioneers, we need to be more cautious about the authenticity of things and find more angles to verify. "
American started research on photonic chips in about 2015, and Chinese companies were about three years behind.
On the eve of the end of the core industry in 2018, companies in China have gradually begun to conduct research in this field.
The earliest investors were Baidu Venture Capital and an Americen semiconductor investment institution, which jointly invested 10 million yuan. Later, CICC, Matrix Partners and Baidu participated in the A round of financing, raising 26 million yuan.
If not for the fall of the core curtain, this company would not have received so much investment.
A total of nearly 2 billion yuan has been raised in financing successively. You must know that SenseTime Technology only raised 2 billion yuan back then.
The company has been falling since its listing on the Science and Technology Innovation Board. Like SenseTime, its peak is when it is listed.
“The main reason is that this company has products before.
Later, there were also specialized photon computing processors for the enterprise, specifically for algorithm calculations in the field of artificial intelligence. "
"It shouldn't be. If there really is such a processor, I should have heard about it in school.
This is still a domestic enterprise.
I often communicate with students from the School of Computer Science, and I still have some understanding of which parts have been domestically produced. "
"Professor Zhu, the main thing is this. The photonic chips previously developed by this company were mainly aimed at specific neural network algorithms.
Only in these specific recurrent neural networks is it hundreds of times faster than high-end GPUs.
But its universality is not high enough.
So it may be used in some specific situations.
If they can adapt to all situations and are hundreds of times faster than mainstream high-end GPUs on the market, then the company's price-to-earnings ratio should be several hundred, not less than fifty now. "
"Are there similar photonic chips abroad that can adapt to all scenarios?"
"not yet."
“Then why were they able to do it before foreign countries.
It’s not that I doubt the level of domestic companies.
It's about chip scams. To put it mildly, it's called bragging. We've seen too many of them.
Especially this kind of so-called technological breakthrough, I always question it first.
As for technological development, especially the most cutting-edge technological breakthroughs, there has never been a strong correlation with money or policy.
But a weak correlation. "
"Yes, what you said, Professor Zhu, makes so much sense.
In recent years, places like Yanjing, Shenhai, and Pengcheng have implemented many relevant policy packages to promote investment in high-precision industries and promote the development of high-end green and intelligent manufacturing.
What other future industrial highlands are there, such as industrial clusters around VR and 6G?
One set after another.
As a result, why has Suzhou become an industrial highland and an industrial cluster?
Even Suzhou's GDP is about to catch up with Shen Hai.
Whether it is new energy, biomedicine, artificial intelligence or VR, a large number of high-tech jobs are concentrated in Suzhou.
Can Suzhou compare with places like Shenhai in terms of policy advantages?
I wouldn't have believed it before, but this company still has a history of research and development in the field of photonic chips, and it has a long history.
In addition, even the virtual world has emerged, and photon chips do not seem so fantasy.
After all, this is an industry that has accumulated over many years. "
“I’m not completely dismissing the possibility.
It’s just that you need to be cautious. "
"Thank you Professor Zhu. We may still need to invite more experts in related fields to conduct research in the future to get more accurate results."
At this time, another fund manager answered: "I don't think they would lie.
After all, it is also a listed company. Although it has been losing money over the years, it still has large funds holding shares.
It's just possible they're exaggerating part of the truth.
Suitable for all scenarios, this may contain moisture.
In addition, we don’t need to find experts. We can find out by asking people from other listed companies in the same industry. "
No matter what era or industry, colleagues will always be enemies.
"Professor Zhu, we also want to ask you a question, that is, is it possible to replicate biophotovoltaic technology?
For example, purchase related products and then reverse-engineer specific technologies. "
"Let me ask you a question. Has any other manufacturer cracked the brain-computer connection technology developed by Kechuang Biotech ten years ago?"
"No.
But this is not because we can’t crack it, but because we have technology patents.
Kechuang Bio's solution is the best technical route.
Attempts to circumvent the other party's technical solutions have failed to achieve their results. "
“What about Kechuang Biotechnology’s lithium metal cathode material?
Have you cracked it?
It’s also technology from ten years ago. "
"That is because the material accuracy cannot be achieved."
“I think these technologies belong to Blue Star’s previous technology accumulation and are within the scope of our understanding.
We have spent ten years without reverse engineering.
For a technical route like biophotovoltaic technology that only experts have heard of, why do you think it can be reverse-engineered?
From what I knew, I never imagined that commercial biophotovoltaics would be available within ten years.
Not to mention seizing the traditional photovoltaic market.
It is mostly used as a green embellishment or decoration in the homes of high-end people.
As a large-scale energy solution, there are too many technical constraints. "
In the past ten years, China has caught up with foreign countries in many fields.
For example, traditional silicon-based chips can already be produced domestically across the entire 14nm industry chain.
For China, meeting this goal can be regarded as a strategic victory in the silicon curtain.
America has blocked China in high-tech industries such as semiconductors, but at the same time it does not exclude continued cooperation with China in the economic field.
This new situation of confrontation has been likened by the media to a silicon curtain, trying to lock in China's development ceiling in the field of silicon-based chips.
However, when the technical route is determined, the role of money as a resource amplifier can be maximized, and combined with the massive supply of researchers, China will break through the 14nm blockade earlier than the industry expected.
The industry expectation was fifteen years, but it actually took ten years.
You must know that in 2020, Shenhai Microelectronics' 28nm lithography machine repeatedly delayed its delivery. It was said to be delivered in 2021, but later it became 2022. As a result, it was postponed in 2022 to the first half of 2023.
After delivery, the yield rate is limited and there are a lot of problems.
Moreover, the lithography machines produced by Shenhai Optoelectronics are not yet produced in China, and many of them still rely on the supply of high-end materials from Neon.
As a result, in just seven years, China has achieved national production of 14nm chips.
It was a huge shock to American. At that time, there was serious suspicion within American that an insider had leaked their technical information.
So much so that a new wave of McKinseyism emerged within Amerikan.
Under such circumstances, it is even more impossible for Luo Shu to return to China.
At one point, Amerikan even rejected all international students from China in the fields of science and engineering.
You must know that even for international students majoring in science and engineering, many master's programs are frankly designed to generate revenue for universities.
The money earned is the money of Chinese students studying abroad.
After these students were banned from going to America, the biggest destination was England.
Thanks to Amerikan for giving England a piece of the cake in the education industry, otherwise London, which has lost its international financial business, would have gone directly to government bankruptcy and reorganization.
"There is one more thing I want to trouble you with. My son graduated from graduate school this year and he has always wanted to work in the financial industry.
He himself previously had a bachelor's and master's degree in finance from Guanghua School of Management. Can you provide some internship positions for my son?
As for whether there is a chance to become a regular player in the future, it depends on his ability. "
Although Professor Zhu is a professor, he is not an academician after all, and his resources are still limited.
At the same time, the financial industry has been in recession in recent years, and there is a lack of money in the market, which has resulted in particularly low employment in the financial industry.
For a family like Professor Zhu who cannot provide direct cash flow resources, even if his son graduated from Guanghua, it would be difficult for him to find a department of the same level as before.
At this time, internship experience is very important.
The fund managers present were all domestic first-tier private equity institutions. It was for this purpose that Professor Zhu accepted the other party's invitation.
However, Professor Zhu just hopes that his son will go for an internship and eventually get a job. He still hopes to go to the core department of CICC headquarters.
"Well, please send me your master's resume via WeChat later, and I'll let our personnel handle it when I get back.
Internship is a trivial matter.
If your young master wants to become a full-time official in the future, it will be a matter of just one word from you. "
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