Neon, Goryeo, and Hua, these three countries are all countries that were born in the monster room of East Asia.
The advantage of the Confucian cultural circle is that the quality of the labor force is extremely high and it is easy to manage.
Basically, as long as there is a technological spillover, the countries in the Confucian cultural circle can quickly seize the opportunity and develop rapidly.
It only took Korea 40 years to go from an underdeveloped country to a developed country.
In the 1960s, their per capita GDP was about the same as that of poorer African countries.
By 2004, their GDP successfully exceeded one trillion yuan.
Among countries in the Confucian cultural circle, Goryeo is not the only example, there are many such examples.
It's just that some are lucky enough to catch up with development opportunities and become developed countries, while others are unlucky.
Annan was also unlucky. He did not enjoy much benefits from the technological spillover process, and international capital began to flow back to the country.
As a result, Annan's economy has not yet developed. Just when it was about to take off, housing prices took off early, and then economic development was interrupted. The annual inflation rate was comparable to Argentina.
If you pay attention to international economic news, you will often see news about Argentina’s central bank raising interest rates, and the rates start at several percentage points.
Argentina’s central bank interest rate often appears at 75%.
You must know that the most crazy idea for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates is only 75 basis points, which is 0.75%.
The Argentine central bank took action at 5%, 500 basis points.
Before Annan could enjoy China's economic take-off, its capital enjoyed the housing prices of China's capital in advance, and at the same time experienced the bursting of the neon real estate bubble.
It means ten years to walk the same path that others have taken forty years.
Neon and Hua also learned from each other. During the Tang Dynasty, Tang Dynasty sent envoys to China, and China’s economic system in recent decades also learned from the Neon model.
The master of China's method of promoting economic development through infrastructure construction is Neon.
In the early days, countries such as England and America all used infrastructure to boost their economy, but none was as skillful as Neon.
Korea does not rely on infrastructure to stimulate the economy, but on absorbing Amerikan's economic spillover, and then seizes several key areas to develop high value-added industries.
Neon also follows this route, but in the development of high value-added industries, the government's guidance is relatively small, and it mainly relies on the market economy.
This is not the case with Korea. They mainly rely on policy guidance. From chemical industry and shipbuilding to semiconductors and consumer electronics, the traces of policy guidance are particularly serious.
During the development period, the Goryeo government's targeted credit and import restriction policies, as well as the close ties between the government and enterprises, are all examples.
Compared with Goryeo, China's policy support is nothing at all.
Therefore, the rise of scientific and innovative organisms has been most affected by Goryeo and Neon.
China's automobile companies, relying on super lithium batteries, have squeezed out most of the market share of the Neon automobile industry in China.
Neon's automobile industry is their core pillar industry, and China is their largest overseas market.
The price of losing the Chinese market is that in 2020, ten of the top twenty Neon companies are related to the automobile industry.
By 2030, only four of the top twenty companies will be related to the automobile industry, and the others will either die, survive, or be acquired by Chinese companies.
Compared with neon, Korea has been more seriously affected in recent years.
Although their economy is developing rapidly, they also face serious problems.
That is, Goryeo has an almost completely export-oriented economy, with a high debt ratio and a large amount of short-term foreign debt.
Korea's exports account for half of their total GDP.
In addition, Goryeo has almost no restrictions on foreign investment.
This makes Goryeo's economic situation look particularly bad after ten years of state-owned enterprises and when major economies around the world are shrinking.
Some people may say that Neon’s foreign debt is higher, and Goryeo’s foreign debt is nothing compared to Neon’s foreign debt.
This is indeed the case. Neon’s foreign debt is 300% of their GDP.
In 2012, this figure was 219.1%, and Korea's foreign debt was only 35.1% of GDP.
Neon’s external debt is so exaggerated that only Zimbabwe has a higher ratio of external debt to GDP.
But the difference between the two is that more than 40% of the Neon government's foreign debt is in the hands of the Neon Central Bank, and about 90% of the foreign debt is owned by Neon Bank and Neon residents.
The money the Goryeo government owes is money from the international capital market.
Because Neon borrowed money from domestic residents and institutions, they dared to lower the long-term government bond interest rate below 0.5%.
Does Goryeo dare? The interest rate on Korean government bonds has almost exceeded 4%.
Therefore, on the eve of the release of virtual reality equipment, the most urgent thing is not Neon. Although Neon has received the news, the most urgent thing is Goryeo.
Virtual reality technology will cause Goryeo's economic system to collapse overnight.
Although it is not far from collapse now.
Samsung's market value has historically fallen below 100 billion yuan. Previously, Samsung's market value exceeded 400 billion yuan.
A drop of more than 70 percent.
The interest rate on Korea’s national debt is approaching 5%.
This is despite the Korean Central Bank announcing an interest rate hike.
Generally, when the central bank raises interest rates, it will lead to a decrease in government bond interest rates.
The soaring interest rates on government bonds mean that there are fewer investors who are willing to buy Goryeo government bonds, and the number of investors who recognize Goryeo's national credit is rapidly decreasing.
The market liquidity crisis in Goryeo is already ongoing.
Bridgewater Fund has been publicly shorting the Korean stock market, with a short position exceeding 3 billion yuan.
As the world's largest hedge fund, Bridgewater Associates was just the starting gun. Before the starting gun was fired, many Wall Street financial institutions jumped on the money.
Everyone knows that Goryeo is a guaranteed meat, the only question is when to slaughter it.
A frenzy of public opinion has developed.
Neon is also having a hard time, but with its huge overseas assets and domestic monetary policy still having some room for easing, they are not as anxious as Goryeo.
Neon knew that the intelligence conveyed to them by American was an attempt to get them to work with Zheng Li and the Chinese state behind Zheng Li.
Neon is not that stupid. For them, the current economic situation still has room for maneuver. At the same time, Neon relies on its huge overseas assets and land hoards in Brazil. It may not be unable to do something in the virtual world era.
But the negative impact of virtual reality on them is also real, so American encouraged Neon, and Neon chose to deliberately disclose this information to the Koreans.
This is a casual game, and Neon doesn’t know if it will work.
Amerikan wants Neon to test Zheng Li's reality, and Neon wants Gao Li to go.
In contrast, Korea is more on the edge of the cliff.
They are only one step away from Argentina's retreat from a developed country to an underdeveloped country.
“The situation we are facing now is even more difficult than the Asian economic crisis of 1997-1998, which brought Korea’s economic situation even more difficulty.
The main crisis we are facing now is not a financial crisis, but a technological crisis. The technology from China has a dimensionality-reducing impact on us.
The crisis we are currently facing in the financial sector is only a derivative of the technological crisis.
In 1997, we could have sought help from the International Monetary Fund to avoid the worst-case scenario, a sovereign default.
In order to comply with the requirements of the International Monetary Fund, we implemented many institutional and policy reforms.
But today, what kind of sincerity can we show to satisfy Mr. Zheng of China?
No matter from the communication between Samsung and Kechuang Biotech, or when our high-level officials went to Suzhou for investigation, Kechuang Biotech did not seem to have a good impression of Korea.
And organizations that would be willing to negotiate with us to postpone their established plans.
The most important thing is that we cannot come up with chips that can impress Mr. Zheng.
The more serious problem is that even if Kechuang Biotech is willing to delay the launch of the virtual reality world, we have only delayed the arrival of the crisis, but cannot solve it. "
Goryeo financial officials took the lead in reporting.
The financial crisis of the 1990s he mentioned can be traced back to 1990 for Korea.
In 1990, South Korea's current foreign exchange account balance began to deteriorate due to rising inflation, the appreciation of the Korean won, and the recession of the world economy.
The current foreign exchange account deficit was $8.7 billion in 1991, more than four times the previous year's level. To finance a growing current foreign exchange account deficit, the Korean government encouraged capital inflows.
And in 1991, the liberalization of the capital account was accelerated by amending the Foreign Exchange Management Law. The limited capital account liberalization implemented resulted in large capital inflows.
In 1993, the Korean government also announced a blueprint for financial sector liberalization, lifting restrictions on the asset and liability management of financial institutions.
However, in this move they ignored the need for adequate prudential regulation. Leading to an increase in short-term foreign exchange liabilities of financial institutions.
And as part of Korea's requirements to join the OECD in 1996, the government implemented further financial deregulation and capital market opening.
This has led to a large-scale harvesting of short-selling institutions led by Soros in Asia, and Korea is considered a piece of fat after Neon.
Among them, the sudden change in policy of Amerikan's financial department has perfectly coordinated with this group of short-selling institutions.
After Robert Rubin took over the Treasury Department, he adopted a strong dollar policy, which directly led to the rapid increase in Goryeo's trade deficit and a serious decline in the profitability of export investment.
This has led to financial difficulties for a large number of enterprises. As mentioned earlier, Goryeo is a severely foreign trade-oriented economy.
The non-performing loans of Korean banking institutions have increased sharply, and Korea's seemingly reliable financial situation has actually been shaky.
Just like in 1997, I can finally figure out the ins and outs, and then there are many options for how to deal with it.
It’s nothing more than a difference between cutting more and cutting less.
Anyway, being cut off by the Amerikan government is still being cut off, and being cut off by Wall Street is still being cut off.
But this time we are facing an unprecedented crisis, an existential crisis for all industries in all aspects.
Even Goryeo, the most confident cultural industry, has to face the impact of real idols.
It is still unknown how effective the idols and Korean wave cultivated by Goryeo can be in the face of virtual idols.
From top to bottom, everything in Goryeo seemed to have lost its direction.
“Currently our current trade account is out of balance and the exchange rate is in free fall.
The exchange rate of the Korean won against the U.S. dollar has fallen below 2,000 won to 1 U.S. dollar, setting a new low in fifty years.
It has already been lower than the 1737.6 to 1 ratio during the Asian financial crisis on December 13, 1997.
The central bank currently predicts that facing the fierce attack of international speculators, we will not even be able to hold the 2,500-to-1 mark."
The voices of Goryeo financial officials on the stage echoed throughout the venue, but no other sounds were produced.
It seems that it is normal for the Korean won to fall below 2,000 against the US dollar.
If this was done ten years ago, we would have faced ten attacks on the Blue House.
But it's the same now, the Blue House has long been occupied by the people.
"Now that the crisis is underway, how can I face the aliens?
Or an alien with super powers. "
The most senior official in Goryeo knew more information than others.
He was desperate inside.
Because the opponent he faced was completely out of line with common sense, Goryeo couldn't offer any valuable chips.
After the financial officer finished speaking, it was the science and technology officer's turn to speak. His voice was duller, as if he was more sad than anyone else.
“The export of memory chips, which has the highest profit margin in our export trade, has seen the largest decline since 2000, and global economic growth has further reduced interest in traditional carbon-based chips.
All major consumer electronics manufacturers and enterprise hardware manufacturers around the world are waiting and shrinking.
All companies are waiting for the release of Kechuang Biotech's virtual reality equipment before deciding on subsequent production and sales plans.
DRAM shipments fell 74.7% year-on-year in February after growing 7% in the previous month, according to data compiled by the trade ministry on Friday.
DRAM accounts for nearly half of Korea's memory chip exports and is a key indicator for observing my country's semiconductor industry exports.
It is not just the chip industry that is facing the most difficult period in history. Export data from all walks of life are facing a cliff-like decline.
Almost every industry is shrinking.
At the same time, if the supply chain system we have made great efforts to build is cut off because there is no export, it will be difficult to rebuild in the future."
Korea is an export-oriented country. Due to the lack of domestic resources, they rely heavily on imports.
Korea can be said to be the country that pays the most attention to supply chain flexibility among all countries.
Because they once found that their supply chain was extremely fragile,
Taking DEF as an example, Goryeo relied on China for more than 97% of its DEF imports.
However, after China restricted the export of urea, an important component of DEF used to reduce toxic emissions from diesel engines.
The Korean military was forced to fly tens of thousands of liters of liquid from Kangaroo Country, Southeast Asia and the Middle East.
They later spent a lot of money to rebuild the global supply chain system.
But the supply chain system is very realistic.
If you can't keep others fed, they will naturally go to other economies.
"Korea's total exports this month interrupted a third consecutive month of growth since November last year, with a drop of more than 10% due to the combined effect of a weak Korean won and high energy costs.
The trade deficit is snowballing to record levels.
The depreciation of the South Korean won that is taking place this month has a far greater negative impact on trade than a positive one. "
