The price of a commodity is not equal to its actual value.
In the past, only goods that met basic human needs had corresponding value. This was because with the increase in productivity, more and more needs other than basic needs were discovered.
The prices and values of goods are gradually distorted.
Some goods that were originally valuable will lose value.
There will be a complete restructuring from the demand side to the supply side.
In such a phenomenon, under the action of a strong external force, the original balance will be broken in an instant.
"A sharp drop in Americen technology stocks will 100% bring down the entire Americen stock market, thus affecting the global stock market.
We are not immune either.
Because we and American are highly similar in industry. The only difference lies in the service targets of Internet companies and the technological content of semiconductor companies.
Although compared with America, more of our residents' wealth is concentrated in real estate, social security funds and medical insurance funds are also concentrated in the stock market. "
Huaguo’s social security fund has entered Big A a long time ago. The social security fund was established in 2000 and entered the Huaguo stock market in 2016.
In the past two decades, the average annual return rate of social security funds worth trillions has exceeded 8%.
Quite an impressive result.
In 2022, medical insurance also announced the establishment of a fund to enter the big A. By 2031, the scale of the medical insurance fund entering the big A will exceed one trillion.
“Our social security funds and medical insurance funds combined exceed 5 trillion yuan.
Such a huge amount of funds will suffer large-scale losses in market value due to the turbulence of the stock market.
This is only social security and medical insurance funds, as well as large chip funds, and the equity controlled by various financial state-owned enterprises will suffer losses.
It is very likely to cause serious losses and will definitely cause a stock market crash.
The stock market crash is inevitable.
The sharp decline in the market value of technology companies does not mean that resource companies can survive alone.
More than 90% of the consumer electronics industry has shrunk, and demand for copper, aluminum, iron and other metal resources will also shrink.
Tourism will also suffer a fatal blow. According to our estimates, the size of the tourism industry will shrink to one-tenth of its size.
Including petroleum resources will also experience shrinkage.
A bit like a whale rising and everything falling, virtual reality will cause a fatal blow to most industries.
The only thing that will prosper is the entertainment industry in the field of virtual reality. The entertainment industry will provide 50% of society's employment.
Another problem is that without a value anchor to bind young people’s labor, social labor costs will increase greatly. "
As a late-developing country, unlike early-developing countries that can plunder externally, they can only 'plunder' internally if they want to complete primitive accumulation.
Although it sounds cruel, it is not an exaggeration to describe it as plunder.
This is not only true for China, but also for the early completion of national capital accumulation by the USSR and Neon.
What China chose was to use the scissor gap between agriculture and industry to complete primitive accumulation, which is what we call the scissor gap between urban and rural areas.
Give agricultural products purchase prices that are not in line with international pricing, and then give industrial products higher prices to complete primitive accumulation from farmers and use this accumulation to develop manufacturing.
In the 21st century, China, which has completed primitive accumulation, has invented a second way to bind young people's future labor force, and that is real estate.
The mortgage loan for real estate is for thirty years, which means that it ties up the consumption power of young people in the next thirty years. This part of the consumption power is state-owned and the income from real estate is used to develop infrastructure, technology, military industry, aerospace and other aspects.
A very simple data can show all this. In 2020, China's local land-related tax revenue was 2 trillion yuan, and land transfer revenue was nearly 8.4 trillion yuan.
The local general public budget expenditure is about 20 trillion yuan, which means that the land finance bears half of the local government's expenditure.
It is land finance that allows the central government to raise taxes without having to support local governments too much.
This game can no longer be played by 2020. By 2022, people have realized that the myth that real estate has only risen but not fallen for twenty years is about to be shattered.
During the period from 2022 to 2031, the Chinese government relied on freezing second-hand market transactions and building new urban areas to barely maintain the operation of this method.
But even so, it still cannot resist the plummeting housing prices in third- and fourth-tier cities and the unsustainability of local land finance.
However, from real estate developers to the media, there is still a myth that housing prices in first-tier cities and strong second-tier cities will continue to rise.
But the emergence of virtual reality technology will burst this myth, and the real estate bubble will be completely burst.
The Chinese government has also lost the means to bind young people. It is not that easy to find similar means.
In the past, the scissor gap between urban and rural areas was a means of learning from USSR. Later, the real estate industry was half based on the path taken by Lion City and Xiangjiang and half on its own.
The road of real estate has also gradually formed an excellent leek-cutting model after many years of exploration.
You don’t have to play to cut leeks in the stock market, but you have to play to cut leeks in real estate.
But later the young people discovered that as long as I don’t have any descendants, I don’t have to play this game.
When the real estate bubble bursts and this method is permanently lost in the future, what will be the next method of internal harvesting?
This takes time to think about.
“Virtual reality technology will make the land finance model, which has reached the end of history and completed its historical significance, completely withdraw from the stage of history.
But what kind of new financial resources do we need to develop in the future, and how can we create a good financial balance between the central and local governments? This is an extremely difficult problem.
Virtual reality technology will bring many unexpected variables. "
Internal harvesting is a way, and it is an unavoidable way for late-developing countries to achieve industrialization. If you miss the era of external plunder, you will miss it.
Many countries have come this way.
Not all countries are as uniquely endowed as Amerikan. They took advantage of almost all the opportunities at the right time and place, completing a wave of overseas production capacity harvesting in World War I, and completing a wave of economic globalization in World War II.
In the subsequent petrodollar system, monetary globalization was completed, laying the foundation for harvesting the world as soon as there was no money in the following decades.
Including China's support to Africa, debt cancellation is also based on America's Marshall Plan.
The only difference is that China only has carrots and no sticks, while America has both.
“So I think virtual reality technology is too advanced for us.
It will bring about fundamental changes in everything, and we are completely unprepared for it in our current state. "
While this well-known economist in China was talking, big shots were communicating with each other from time to time.
"I don't know what's going on, but I would like to say that if it does, I think we should promote this technology instead of refrigeration.
For China, the saddest thing is that there is no change, which means that we can only compete within the framework established by Western countries.
On the contrary, if it is a revolutionary change like virtual reality technology, we are not prepared, and other countries are even less prepared.
Only then do we have the opportunity to bypass the many obstacles set by Amerikan and start a fair competition again. "
After entering today's meeting, the economist realized that something big was definitely happening.
The big shots here did not sit expressionlessly as usual, but were communicating frequently.
This was something he hadn't encountered before.
Therefore, he had a hunch that China had really mastered virtual reality technology.
He didn't want to say the last words, but considering that this was indeed the only opportunity to achieve China's strategic goals without bloodshed, he said it anyway.
You must know that it is much easier to win without TSMC than with TSMC.
And after winning it, the burden on China will be lighter.
With the semiconductor industry, the per capita GDP of Wanwan is 33,000 yuan. Without the semiconductor industry, the per capita GDP of Wanwan will drop to less than half.
Although the semiconductor industry accounts for only 20% of the GDP, a 20% reduction in GDP will have an impact on all industries, with the consumer industry bearing the brunt.
"Mr. Lin, please come with me. I'm sorry, but you still can't contact the outside world during this time.
You need to wait for the final results to be released before you can regain your freedom. We have communicated with your family. "
The economist's heart tightened. Originally, he wanted to reallocate his assets as soon as it was over.
Those that should be sold at a discount should be sold quickly.
A helpless thought flashed through his mind, and he knew that his plan was about to fail.
You must know that economists have a lot of assets, especially economists of this level, who allocate assets globally.
Their identities are originally in the ambiguous zone between the market and the system.
Too far away from the system to fully understand the government's intentions and specific circumstances, most of China's statistical data will be technically processed.
It would be fine if all the data were processed in the same way. The problem is that different data have different technical processing methods.
In fact, if you are careful, it is easy to find the loopholes in the official data.
And if it is too far away from the market, it will not be down-to-earth. For example, it may say something like asking unemployed people to go to Didi to rent out their spare houses.
The meeting officially started after experts and scholars from different fields completed their reports.
Zheng Li didn't know, because their conference room was physically isolated from all communication equipment, and there weren't even trees around it.
"My Healing Game"
Just to prevent being eavesdropped by unknown biotechnology.
And to prevent Zheng Li from knowing, even the scientists conducting this investigation were not mage.
But Zheng Li wouldn't care.
Because the one who cooperates with him does not necessarily have to be China, because there are too many countries on this planet.
Not all countries will have these troubles like China.
The world is not limited to developed countries, nor is it only China. There are many countries in the world that have nothing to lose.
Hua is Zheng Li’s first choice because it is powerful enough and can be promoted most quickly.
As a model project for cooperation between Magic Civilization and Blue Star Civilization.
The second target is the Lion City, so the boat can easily turn around.
"Okay, everyone, let's talk about your thoughts. About whether to cooperate with Clark?"
“I think there are too many unknown risks here, whether it’s from an economic or social stability perspective, there are too many risks.
What Professor Lin just said is only part of it. In addition to the unsustainability of local land finance, our financial system will face a comprehensive collapse.
It’s not just the stock market’s revaluation of listed companies.
All major banks will have a lot of bad debts.
First of all, the real estate industry finances through the ABS route, domestic and overseas bond financing, or traditional credit route. The total financing is about 60 trillion RMB.
Our work in the past five years was all about dismantling this mine.
On the eve of the completion of bomb disposal, we cannot deal with this bomb in a short time. According to the central bank's internal plan, we will need at least three years.
This is a bad debt at the enterprise level. Professor Lin, the local finance professor, just explained it clearly enough.
There are also personal housing mortgage loans. The amount of personal housing mortgage loans nationwide is about 30 trillion RMB.
If the value of housing collapses, this will also be a very scary thunder. It has exploded before, but through splitting, we have limited each thunderstorm to a small range.
But virtual reality technology will cause a tsunami. We cannot split it up and it is only limited to a small range.
From local rural banks, to city commercial banks, to commercial banks, and even large state-owned banks, no bank can withstand this risk.
I'm not opposed to working with Clark, but the time isn't now.
Now we are not prepared.
The time is too short, we can negotiate with him.
It will take at least three years just to deal with the value of various state-owned assets without losing value and to control the losses to a very small range.
In addition to the economic risks, there are also risks from the virtual reality technology itself.
I think everyone can imagine the risks involved in completely handing over your brain to aliens.
What if Clark could influence every user with the help of virtual reality equipment?
I believe that the other party will most likely not take action on the security of the virtual reality device itself.
The product should be safe and reliable and not have any impact on human health.
Because after all, with such a large-scale opening up, if we first use the Yangtze River Delta region as a pilot area, any problems will be easily exposed.
But what if it is some psychological influence, ranging from hinting to brainwashing?
The uncontrollable risks are too high. "
China's economy is too closely tied to real estate, from local governments to major banks to urban investment platform companies.
“I think we can take advantage of this opportunity.
If you miss this opportunity, when will you wait until next time?
What Clark can use now is virtual reality technology. Do you know how many technologies he has in hand that he has not yet used?
In this cooperation, it will not be transferred due to our will. There is only one Clark, but there are many countries for him to choose from.
This is not an equal deal.
It is impossible for us to achieve revival without taking risks. "
－－－－－－Digression－－－－－
Thanks to Evergreen 1040, Thousand People Pig, Lu Hua, Everything Can Be Cute, Book Friends 20210805171432286, saynol, Ink Blue Flowers, fuhtm83, and I Love Shinji for their rewards.
In addition, there are no unfinished ideas yet. I will try my best to deduce the social changes brought about by new technologies.
If you want it to be unfinished, wouldn't it be easiest for me to just write the results instead of deducing?
If a technology of this level like virtual reality is only admired and praised by everyone in society, then I think it is too boring and not my style.
