“The concept of economic globalization can be traced back to the 1970s, when Western countries and East Asian countries jointly created the concept of economic globalization by opening up financial markets and relaxing capital controls.
Economic globalization brings about the reorganization of global supply chains.
From the 1970s to the beginning of this century, the supply chains of Western developed countries were mainly transferred to Neon and Korea in East Asia, and the Four Tigers in Asia.
Multinational companies achieve the goal of maximizing efficiency and profits by monitoring and coordinating factories distributed around the world, breaking through geographical restrictions through commercial operations.
During this period, the economy and culture were unprecedentedly active, and it also brought unprecedented prosperity to Asian countries.
As Neon ushered in the lost thirty years, the economy of the former Asian Tigers was almost completely stagnant. The root of all this was not just the Asian financial crisis.
It’s even more because a new behemoth, China, is about to enter the scene. Since China joined the WTO in 2001, this country with a large amount of basic education and low-cost labor force has been rapidly attracting the transfer of global manufacturing industries.
So much so that since 2012, although China has not participated in the annual G7 meetings, the main agenda involved is inseparable from issues related to Chinese manufacturing.
China not only has massive human resources, but also has increasingly complete infrastructure and cheap water and electricity necessary for manufacturing.
Yes, compared with other developing countries, the hydropower provided by China is cheap and stable.
At the same time, China's advantages not only lie in the above-mentioned advantages in the material world, but also include unprecedented mobilization capabilities, and the will of the upper class is extremely strong.
A senior executive from China once expressed regret at a symposium that China could not produce ballpoint pen tips. A year later, a provincial steel company completed independent research and development of ballpoint pen tips.
The strong mobilization ability means that China is not willing to just be at the bottom of the manufacturing industry. Their determination and will to climb up are extremely strong.
As time goes by, China's upward movement in the industrial chain has turned Western developed countries from ridicule to doubt, then to wait-and-see, and finally to fear in 2018.
They cannot accept a Chinese country that occupies the upper reaches of the industrial chain. Once this becomes a fact, one of Amerikan's three legs will be cut off.
The so-called three advantages that Amerikan relies on to harvest the world are high-end manufacturing, financial industry and military capabilities.
Among them, military capabilities and high-end manufacturing complement each other. In a sense, China has gradually encroached on the mid-range manufacturing market.
What followed was the transfer of manufacturing. Western countries began to transfer industries to less developed third world countries in 2018 or even earlier in 2015.
Among them, Amerikan is transferring production capacity to neighboring Mexico, Brazil and other places, Neon and Koryo are transferring production capacity to Southeast Asian countries and India, and Western Europe has chosen Eastern Europe and Turkey.
The climax of this supply chain shift will be the period from 2022 to 2024.
The problem facing China is not just the transfer of supply chains.
Because the transfer of the supply chain is not entirely a bad thing to some extent, China can take the lion's share of a series of mid-range supply chain products such as motors, infrastructure, and machine tools involved in the supply chain transfer process. .
For China, what needs to be considered is how to continue to maintain huge production capacity after the supply chain is reorganized and transferred.
At the same time, China's supply-side and environmental protection strategies started in 2015 have eliminated a large number of small and medium-sized mining companies and formed a new coal, steel and non-ferrous industry chain.
After the completion of this stage, China launched a national strategy of carbon neutrality and carbon peaking, which was matched by a new energy industry chain.
The new energy industry chain is not just new energy vehicles, but also includes upstream industries such as wind energy and solar energy.
This shift in overall energy strategy has brought about the rapid development of new energy-related companies in recent years.
But the problem is that mid- and downstream electric vehicles, combined with the Internet of Things and 5G communication systems, are faced with the constraints of high-end chips.
Although automotive chips do not require processes below 14 nanometers, chips involve not only the manufacturing process, but also silicon wafer materials, packaging, design software, and photoresist.
The photoresist market with an annual revenue of only 2 billion yuan has spawned a company with a market value of 500 billion yuan. It is a pure market value bubble. Even the company's photoresist has only been recognized by domestic manufacturers in the past two years.
China's process of semiconductor substitutability has not only spawned bubbles, but also brought hope.
But I was initially pessimistic about whether the chip blockade could be successfully broken before Western developed countries completed the restructuring of their industrial chains.
Because capital speculation in China is greater than investment, a capital market without a system to protect the rights and interests of small and medium-sized shareholders cannot achieve true value investment, let alone grow together with great companies.
Under such pessimistic expectations, once high-tech substitution fails and the supply chain is reorganized by Europe and the United States in Southeast Asia and South Asia, China will undoubtedly face a middle-income trap.
By the way, after Amerikan and Neon signed the Plaza Agreement in 1985, they not only adopted financial measures, but also launched a semiconductor trade war from 1987 to 1991.
The methods adopted include forcing Neon to transfer 20% of its market share to Amerikan Enterprises, forcing three of the five Neon electronics giants to abandon the storage industry, and supporting Samsung in Korea.
In the following four years, the telecommunications war was carried out, causing a long-term depression in Neon's stock market and real estate. Americen Capital took the opportunity to buy at the bottom and controlled 30% of Neon's financial industry and 20% of its industrial capital.
In the late 1990s, Americen Capital caused Neon Bank's bad debts exceeding one trillion yuan, causing Neon to completely lose its development opportunities in the semiconductor and communications industries.
Originally, I observed that Western countries were trying to use similar means to develop on China.
In the past two decades or so, manufacturing has been transferred to China on a large scale. China has determined its currency strategy of anchoring the rice dollar and purchasing rice bonds, creating a monetary environment conducive to foreign trade.
What follows is the loss of monetary autonomy, which is a transfer of rights.
At the same time, Americen forced the RMB to appreciate. Through equity investment and creating a convenient listing environment, it forced China to open up the Internet industry, and a large number of Internet companies were listed on Americen.
Under the pressure of the other party, China's financial industry also opened its doors to a large extent. Until 2010, Wall Street and Silicon Valley had the confidence to control China's industry.
Everything started to change in 2010. America's Internet giants were blocked from the country, and the opening up of the financial industry was always superficial.
Even America's retail business cannot gain a foothold in China.
Amerikan's transformation started in 2010, not 2016 as popular belief.
Beginning in 2010, Amerikan began to mobilize the public opinion machine, completing the process of making the China threat theory deeply rooted in the hearts of the people. Similar to the public opinion preparation work before the neon harvest:
Neon has plundered Amerikan's economy and industry. Neon is buying Amerikan. Neon's electronic industry, etc., threatens Amerikan's security.
Then there is the comprehensive increase in tariffs in 2018. The purpose behind the increase in tariffs is to force the reorganization of the industrial chain.
This process is painful and belongs to the Seven Injury Box. China is facing the stripping of its supply chain. What America and even other developed countries need to face is inflation, uncontrollable inflation.
Vietnam and Asan saw this and moved closer to Amerikan in these years.
But Amerikan's ultimate goal is not the ultimate confrontation, but to control China's economy just like it did with Neon.
Acquiring high-quality Chinese companies at low prices is the ultimate goal.
But what they didn't expect was the emergencies in 2020, which disrupted their arrangements. The water release that year reached trillions of yuan, and assets and liabilities quickly expanded from 4 trillion yuan to 7 trillion yuan.
Americen's response that year was to have mining giants begin to jointly export high-priced iron ore to China, and capital pushed up the iron ore index in the speculative market.
Iron ore trade must sign a contract based on the trading index. A run on global shipping began, prices skyrocketed, and oil-producing countries united to support prices.
At that time, in order to save the economy, China had to release funds on a large scale for infrastructure construction. The release of funds for social financing in the first half of the year stimulated a sharp rise in real estate.
It was also during the trade negotiations that year that China liberalized its financial industry and overseas capital began to enter in large quantities.
The wave of foreign investment entering China began in 2020.
Let me recap the news of that year:
BlackRock Inc., the world's largest asset manager, was approved last month to form a partnership with a state-owned Chinese bank.
Asset management company Vanguard Group said it will move its regional headquarters to Shenhai.
Citibank Group became the first American bank to obtain a fund custody license in China.
**** plans to acquire Huaguo Partners, which is mainly responsible for all the equity interests in Huaguo Fund business.
As a result, real estate, the stock market, and the RMB exchange rate soared that year. A series of chip-related electronic industries such as Huawei and ZTE have been suppressed by Amerika, and exports to China such as TSMC and Samsung have surged.
At that time, China was facing a situation similar to that of Neon: the RMB exchange rate was rising rapidly, and the prices of imported crude oil, iron ore chips, etc. were skyrocketing.
Of course, China responded quickly. It stopped releasing water in the second half of the year. Banks were unprecedentedly strict in anti-money laundering and invested heavily in high technology and 5G.
Seeing that it was impossible to force China to fully open the market for a while, America chose to sell off assets and raise commodities.
This background is the economic trend in 2021.
America's abacus was very good, detonating the Chinese capital market, selling assets while shorting the Chinese index, and plundering the Chinese banking system.
Wait until the financial and electronic industries hit rock bottom before buying the bottom.
But at this time, several surprises occurred. The arrival of magic allowed Blue Star countries to see a new direction of technological development.
Magic represents a new technological system and a new direction of technological development, rather than the house-playing game in folk fantasy.
Whether it is a magic brain, a magic coin or a soul, they are all manifestations of the scientific system in different civilizations. Especially the magic coin is an extremely clever design.
With the existence of a new scientific system, Western countries see the hope of overtaking in corners. Semiconductors are not the only high-tech products.
The biological storage technology that China and Russia took the lead in coming up with, I'm sure the source is Merlin.
The brand-new biotechnology system allows Western developed countries, except American, to no longer look at American’s face or continue to play with him.
On the new track, everyone is fair, and Amerikan’s advantage is negligible.
Not only the Europa League countries, but also Neon and Korea are starting to make moves.
America can no longer command the world as it did before 2022, and China has received a rare strategic respite.
At the same time, in the new track, Huaguo also has sufficient confidence to compete with Amerikan by relying on the scientific and technological talents it has cultivated over the past two decades.
Let's put it this way, Amerikan cannot achieve the harvest of China by relying on the strength of his family. He is just the eldest brother who takes the lead and allows other younger brothers to see the opportunity to follow him and drink soup. Only then can he have a chance of success.
Now the younger brothers all have their own plans. They want to invest their capital in the magic system, and no one will play with them.
Achieving leadership in the future field of combining magic and technology is the most important task for the world's mainstream players now.
China has taken the lead in the next generation of Internet revolution.
I am sure that brain-computer connected VR will definitely become the platform for the next generation of Internet.
The reason why Amerikan did not contain it was because he knew that they alone could not achieve containment.
They must have also communicated with the Europa League, who rejected Amerikan's desire to ban brain-computer connections to VR.
The significance of the new generation of brain-computer connected VR lies not only in itself, but also in the Chinese high-tech industrial chain it cultivates.
The topic turns back to magic. Compared with the five years from 2016 to 2021, the development of technology in recent years seems to have pressed the accelerator button.
Technologies such as autonomous driving, unmanned factories, and brain-computer connection are all experiencing explosions.
Originally, I had always doubted the real reason behind the explosive development of these technologies.
After seeing the life-extending potion, I'm sure it has something to do with Merlin.
The essence of life-extending medicine is a breakthrough in biology. It is not only a breakthrough in technology, but also a breakthrough in concept.
The biological community will have a clear definition of life extension.
The technological spillover caused by Merlin and the help of magic in research and development will cause the accelerated development of science and technology.
What followed was a return of the industrial chain. Data shows that due to the initial results of the combination of artificial intelligence and industrial robots, the industrial chains of developed countries began to gradually return to their home countries.
Companies including Chinese companies are also relocating manufacturing plants back home.
Low-end manufacturing is returning, and the trend of anti-globalization is beginning.
The low-end industrial chain is returning, and the mid-to-high-end industrial chain is also returning. It is difficult for third world countries to have the opportunity to repeat what China has experienced in the past two decades.
The development of technology will not give them that much time.
In the foreseeable future, third world countries will become resource providers and countries that rely on tourism and service industries.
The emergence of magic coins has resulted in small countries not even having the chance to play at the card table in the Magic Age.
China’s lead in the field of brain-computer connected VR is still very weak, and many parts still rely heavily on developed countries.
Facing the reorganization and reshoring of global supply chains, China needs to reach a certain balance among total factor costs, exchange rates and debt systems. "
The above is the full content of an article published by an economic observer after the news about life-extending drugs was released. The title is:
"Looking at the past and future of the global supply chain from the perspective of life-extending pharmaceuticals."
－－－－－－Digression－－－－－
It was very difficult for me to write this chapter. At the same time, I had to grasp the scale of many contents in it, not too shallow or too deep.
