After returning home, Kenny was still puzzled. There must be a reason behind any changes in financial markets.
Jiu'an Medical, the biggest monster stock at the end of 21, has skyrocketed. There must be institutions or individuals who got the news in advance and jumped on it. Only by having an accurate estimate of the market value of Jiu'an Medical after signing a large order can they stay firmly on the Diaoyutai.
It is said on the Internet that a certain sales department boss has a pattern. Even if Jiu'an Medical doubled, he would not lock up the position and wait for ten times before leaving.
This kind of pure chive conjecture should be regarded as reality. If a big guy like this doubles up and does not lock up his position and waits for an increase, he definitely has inside information to know the target price, not a big pattern.
This is logically similar to Wangfujing Department Store in the early 2000s.
In the same way, a sudden plunge in futures trading means that the power of short selling is much greater than that of long selling.
Although regional conflicts continued during this period, all forces were making harsh remarks.
But even shortly before the conflict was most likely to break out, soybean futures did not plummet so sharply and without resistance.
Because global oil supply is tightening and geopolitical conflicts have led to rising commodity prices, the spot price of Brent crude oil has even exceeded 98 meters per barrel.
There is a certain correlation between the price of crude oil and the price of oil and fat. When the price of crude oil rises, the price of soybean-related products falls. This is a very strange phenomenon.
After Kenny returned home, he began to collect information from various sources, trying to determine the logic behind this abnormal phenomenon.
In order to ensure the timeliness of his futures trading information, he even hired people in distant Brazil to help him calculate the weather conditions of the season and the possible impact on soybean production every day.
There is no need for anyone to keep an eye on American's output. The mature futures market has led to specialized companies doing data business in this area. Just buy any data you need from them directly.
America is the largest soybean producer, and the second largest soybean producer is Brazil.
The combined production of Brazil and Amerikan accounts for more than fifty percent of global production.
Amerikan's output is relatively stable due to industrial farming. Therefore, Brazil's production can cause strong fluctuations in the futures market.
"Recently, Brazil's offshore soybean spot volume has not increased significantly."
"America's soybean production is also very stable. Is it because the Fed is expected to raise interest rates ahead of schedule?"
"It is impossible for the Fed to raise interest rates and only soybean futures will fall."
Americen has been saying for a long time that interest rates will be raised this year, and interest rates must be raised this year. But the number and timing of interest rate hikes has been uncertain.
The Fed's interest rate hike means currency tightening, and the US dollars that were previously released to the world are flowing back to Amerikan. This is how the Fed keeps inflation in check.
The Fed's interest rate hikes are a sure thing, but only the number of times. First it was said once, then three times, and then the craziest prediction on the market was that the Fed would raise interest rates seven times this year.
Kenny has never been able to find the reason for the collapse of soybean futures. He thought that he could only wait, the news would be announced sooner or later.
It’s just that some people get it in advance, and some people only know it when the news is announced.
At 5:40 in the morning, Kenny was woken up by a phone call, "Who?"
Before he finished speaking, a loud voice came from the receiver: "Look at the telegram group! China has invented a super soybean, which can achieve an average soybean yield of 800 kilograms per mu, and the oil yield exceeds 100%. twenty!"
Kenny was completely sleepless. On the other end of the phone was his old friend Duke, who had worked as a trader with him back then. He was also still on the front line of futures trading.
As a veteran of the soybean industry for many years, he is well aware of the gold content of an average yield of 800 kilograms per mu.
Americen's soybean yield per mu is about 435 kilograms. In extreme cases, it can achieve a yield of more than 1,000 kilograms per mu, but this is a very rare case.
Soybean is a light and temperature sensitive plant, and its yield is affected by many factors.
If an average yield of 800 kilograms per mu can be achieved, the price of soybeans on the market will drop by at least 20%.
He quickly judged that yesterday's drop in price had almost reached the point of falling in one step.
Kenny turned on his phone and looked at the video in the group:
"The Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences has developed a super soybean with a yield of 800 kilograms per mu. This genetically modified soybean will be the first approved genetically modified crop after China allowed genetically modified technology..."
He watched the group chat and said that this is the most famous news program in China, and the female host has been introducing this super soybean.
The more he listened, the more shocked he became. When did China's genetically modified technology become so advanced? It is actually so far ahead of Americen in the research and development of soybean seeds.
"Is this a soybean seed developed by China?"
"They said they developed it, but who knows? Maybe it was Syngenta."
Huaguo Enterprise, the aforementioned Huaguo Import and Export Chemical Company, spent 43 billion yuan to acquire Swiss agricultural chemical giant Syngenta in 2016. Syngenta is also a seed giant.
You must know that Monsanto also wanted to acquire Syngenta at that time, but the price Monsanto offered was even higher, 45 billion yuan.
"Syngenta does not have this capability. If they had this technology research and development capability, they would not be acquired by China."
"Super soybeans, I don't know if we will import them. It's incredible that one day we will import seeds from China."
"Why not? China's soil and environment can achieve a general yield of 800 jins per mu, and Ameriken can break through 1,000 jins."
Due to limitations in environmental conditions and breeding capabilities, China's soybean output lags far behind that of American. The average output of American per acre of land is 435 kilograms, while that of China is 265 kilograms.
Moreover, the oil yield of Chinese soybeans is on average 3 to 5 points lower than that of imported genetically modified soybeans. For every one point higher the average oil yield of soybeans, the profit from processing a ton of soybeans can increase by 150 yuan.
This is why China subsidizes soybeans. Without subsidies, no one will grow them.
"How do you know what they're saying is true and not just propaganda?"
"There is no need to lie about this kind of product. If someone buys a product on the market and tests it, they will know whether it is genuine or not. What's the point of lying? Don't be fooled."
"No wonder soybeans and related products all plummeted yesterday. Chinese people made huge profits from this wave of short selling."
"Damn Chinese people, relying on this method to manipulate the market!"
"Yesterday it fell 12 points. Soybean futures will have room to fall by up to eight points after the opening today, but I don't think it will fall that much."
Although it was five o'clock in the morning, the discussion in the telegram group for soybean futures trading was lively. Kenny couldn't fall asleep after watching it for a while. He started to get up and think about what the futures price would be like when it opens tomorrow, and what profit he could make. space.
Thousands of miles away from Chicago, in Huaguo, the office building of Huaguo Seed Group was filled with joy. It was already eight o'clock in the evening, and no one had left work yet.
After merging the financial sector of Huaguo Import and Export Company, the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission also transferred a group of people from the futures companies of CITIC Futures and CITIC Construction Investment to set up a futures trading department.
