"The reports I saw are just as you said: Although the first quarter has not yet ended, European and American stock markets have shown amazing strength."
“I didn’t go to the United States in January. My colleagues who participated in several investment forums there told me that the three major U.S. stock markets have broken the straight-line decline that has been occurring for three years. Many investment institutions have re-entered the market and are betting on the economy. The index will rebound more strongly in the second half of the year, and a larger proportion of institutions are optimistic about economic recovery."
"But I also learned that although the stock market is recovering, there is no exciting good news in the financial market and economic circles, and there is a lot of bad news."
"For example?" Duanmu's eyes lit up, "Another big company has a financial scandal? Which one?"
“In 1998, the U.S. federal budget achieved its first surplus in 29 years, reaching US$69.2 billion. In 1999, it was also a surplus of US$124 billion. In 2000, the surplus was US$237 billion, almost double. In 2001, it was still a surplus, but it dropped back to US$1,272. billion. By 2002, the fiscal deficit had returned to the center of the stage and was as high as $159 billion."
"In four years, we are back to the starting point." Duanmu said with joy, "Although this is indeed not optimistic data, it is a good thing for those of us who are bearish on the stock market."
"In addition to the fiscal deficit, large demonstrations against the US-Iraq war broke out in many cities in the United States this year. It should be the largest anti-war demonstration since the Vietnam War. When I was in preparatory school, my teacher told me about an economic phenomenon: If a country has its social When internal conflicts are severe, there will be a tendency to divert the attention of the domestic public by launching foreign wars or creating geopolitical conflicts, and at the same time use war to stimulate the economy. This was the case with the Afghan war after 911, and this is still the case with the war with Iraq. And recently, The rate of layoffs in many large companies in the United States has also reached a higher level. There are articles criticizing low employment rates in the back pages of newspapers almost every day. If you consider the listed companies that have financial scandals from time to time, fiscal deficits, wars and low employment rates, etc. Taking the information together, can we put a question mark on the view that the U.S. economy is recovering?"
"Since you are not optimistic about the U.S. economy, does that mean there is still room for the U.S. stock market to continue to fall? Then the German market and the French market will follow, right?" Duanmu woke up and said, "I understand. You still want to hold it.”
"On the contrary." Dong Qiangqiang said carefully, "I think maybe now we should sell the put options on both indexes."
"All sold?" Duanmu was confused by Dong Qiangqiang's explanation, and couldn't help but suspect that he was hallucinating, "But didn't your analysis just now mean that the U.S. economy is still struggling in the quagmire? Then its European backyard must not be either. Immediately the inspiration comes."
"I have told you before that I have always believed that the German and French capital markets and the U.S. capital market are developing in the same direction. However, compared with the U.S. stock market, the market indexes of Germany and France lag behind to a certain extent. Now the Dow Jones and S&P and Nasdaq are both rising. If my view is right, then it is only a matter of time before DAX and CAC follow suit. Then it is definitely wrong for us to be bearish on them. But what if I am wrong? The U.S. economy is indeed still in a quagmire However, the economies of Germany and France are not lagging behind, but something else, so it is still wrong for us to be bearish on them."
"What do you mean by 'others'?" Duanmu asked.
"Independence." Dong Qiangqiang replied, "Since last year, Germany and France, as the most important members of the European Troika, have been more actively deploying emerging markets like China than before: France is focusing on electricity, aircraft, and communications. , and even luxury goods, Germany promotes automobiles, steel, chemicals and medicine, but this is not the most important reason why I think we should sell (options).”
"Then what's the most important reason?" Duanmu was very interested.
"We used to be short on a company, and we only had to focus on the company's financial and business aspects. But there are too many factors to consider when we are short on a capital market, such as financial conditions, inflation, demographic changes, and trade flows. , monetary policy, and the interest rates you just mentioned are simply endless and endless. Even for those who have paid attention to these factors for a long time, it is not easy. This can no longer be regarded as a simple ambition. I am getting more and more The more I feel that our bet on the company is based on facts, while our bet on the market is based on opinions and predictions. But we are just ordinary people. We cannot predict the trend of the macro economy. The most we can do is slap our heads..."
"At most, you can just pat your head and decide which companies can be shorted." Duanmu asked, "But wasn't your bullish view on the public just now based on opinions and predictions?"
"Haha, you're right," Dong Qiangqiang said without hesitation, "but it's easier to predict a company than the market. Since we didn't lose money this time through bad luck, we should just give up. Unless we encounter '911' again. 'In extreme events or real financial crises, you can speculate. Otherwise, neither of us should put our energy and funds into it in the future. This is not our strength. It is better to focus on researching companies with problems than to do anything else. It’s time to subtract, what do you think?
Dong Qiangqiang finished a lot of words in rapid succession, and Duanmu remained silent for a long time. Dong Qiangqiang guessed his mentality and took a step back: "If you are really unwilling, why don't you sell some and keep some like Mu Zai did, and sell the French ones first?" , how about leaving Germany behind?"
"I'm not reluctant, and what you said is not unreasonable. Seizing the opportunity and catching wild boars may be your talents. You have a better sense of this than me." Duanmu said quietly, "It's just that for a moment, you seemed to be different from before. Same."
"What's the difference?" Dong Qiangqiang was stunned. "Did I say something wrong?"
"You didn't say anything wrong, it's just that when you mentioned Mu Zai just now, it reminded me of '911', and you seemed particularly angry when I told you that you could buy put options on it."
Dong Qiangqiang was silent for a while, and the plane seemed to fly past his eyes again. When he mentioned Mu Zai just now, he had no association at all. Have you forgotten it? he asked himself.
Perhaps realizing that he had hurt Dong Qiangqiang, Duanmu said nothing more and asked while typing on the keyboard: "The overall tax point in St. Kitts can be controlled within 5%, and there should be tax avoidance measures. Details I’d also like to ask the accountant and lawyer, if they don’t object, which account is appropriate for me to transfer the dividends to you after paying the taxes?”
"Just the one from Deutsche Bank."
"I plan to deposit my money in the Wind Valley Bank in California. The service of American banks is still better than that of Germany. You should also open one. There is no need to put it all here. Next time (me) goes to the United States, remember to pay I have a power of attorney, and I will open one for you. Another thing, you should have received a text message by now."
Before Duanmu finished speaking, Dong Qiangqiang's cell phone made a "ding" sound.
Just listen to Duanmu continue: "I have also given you trading permissions. From now on, you can just use the transaction password received on your mobile phone every time you make a transaction. It does not conflict with mine."
Dong Qiangqiang's account originally only had the browsing function. He never asked Duanmu to open the trading function for him. Today, I don't know what Duanmu thought of and took the initiative to upgrade it for him.
"Why do you suddenly think of doing this?" Dong Qiangqiang asked, "I don't need it, you can just do it."
"You should have authority from the moment their money comes in. If I can't take care of the transaction because I'm too busy, I'll have to count on you."
"Do you have anything else? My phone can't hold it anymore." Unconsciously, the two of them chatted for nearly an hour. The phone was so hot that Dong Qiangqiang could hardly hold it. He saw that there was only one bar left in the battery, and the words on the screen of the phone Numbers and letters also began to appear and disappear, and it looked like it might shut down at any time.
But Duanmu didn't reply, and there was a busy signal from the phone. Dong Qiangqiang quickly connected the charger and called Duanmu, but the message returned from the other party's phone was "power off". It seemed that Duanmu's phone was also out of power.
(End of chapter)
