"Hey, I feel relieved to hear you say that," Duanmu let out two evil laughs, "I thought you were already on top of it and couldn't listen to other opinions at all. I was only sure that it would continue to rise."
"Test me?" Dong Qiangqiang suddenly realized, "Although I am still a novice in investing, I also know that as long as a listed company is a listed company, there will be disadvantages. For car companies, the disadvantages mainly lie in safety hazards of technical processes, weak sales and financial fraud. These are the kinds of things that affect investor confidence, aren’t they?”
"Don't tell me yet, let's see if my guess is right. Are you worried that the current strange (military) situation in the south will affect Volkswagen's sales performance in the domestic market this year?"
"Hehe, it's accurate!" Dong Qiangqiang boasted, "It's like a roundworm in my belly."
"This metaphor is absolutely disgusting."
"That's not poor. Tell me what you think. Are you worried about its impact on mass sales?"
"If this is the negative you are talking about," Duanmu's tone sounded really relaxed, "then I'm not worried."
"Aren't you worried at all?" Dong Qiangqiang couldn't help but become curious, "If investors lower their sales expectations for Volkswagen because of the situation, then needless to say, the stock price will definitely fall. You know Lao Bai Travel agency, right? All the tour groups were originally booked in the first half of the year, but because of the (military) situation, all tour groups were canceled and there were only business groups. I am worried that the same thing will happen to the public."
"I think you made two mistakes."
"I'm all ears." Dong Qiangqiang said modestly.
"First of all, buying a car and traveling abroad are not the same thing. If I want to buy a new car or replace it, I will not think that the current situation means danger to me, but will regard it as an opportunity to get a bargain. You think, if There are fewer people looking at cars and buying cars than last year. 4S must be under a lot of pressure because their sales target this year must be more than last year. What if there are fewer people coming? They must take various promotional measures, such as price reductions. Think about it , the cheaper Volkswagen cars cost hundreds of thousands. Last year, we added imported cars. There are cars ranging from hundreds of thousands to millions. No one who can afford these cars is poor, they are all calculating people. Fine, if they encounter the opportunity of additional discounts, they will definitely bargain to death and make full use of this opportunity. So I think sales may be sluggish for 2-3 months instead of shrinking for the whole year. This is not the Middle Ages The Black Death, once the war is completely over, sales will return to normal levels, or even exceed them."
"What you say does make sense," Dong Qiangqiang agreed, "Then what's the second mistake?"
"The most common mistake that junior investors make is to shoot an arrow first and then draw a target." Duanmu sighed, "Actually, I just wanted to point it out. Your logic for being optimistic about Volkswagen is that you believe that Volkswagen will continue to make breakthroughs in the domestic automobile market. ceiling, thereby ensuring the growth of its global sales performance. In other words, the invisible prerequisite for Volkswagen's global performance growth is that foreign markets do not lose its chain. Under this premise, as long as China develops rapidly, Volkswagen's performance will undoubtedly rise. , but don’t forget that the domestic market is just an inconspicuous piece of the Volkswagen global market. The bulk of Volkswagen’s performance is the overseas market. In 2001, amid the slowdown in global economic development, Volkswagen’s global sales were 5.08 million vehicles, an increase of only 0.4% from 5.06 million vehicles in 2000. In 2002, as you said, sales in China increased by 43% year-on-year, but global sales were only 4.984 million vehicles, nearly 100,000 units less than in 2001 .”
Hearing that Duanmu was familiar with these figures, Dong Qiangqiang instantly knew that he had done his homework, but he was still puzzled: "Since you have known this for a long time, why did you agree with what I said just now? Didn't you also say that 'there is currently no one Can foreign car companies compare with the current Volkswagen, because Volkswagen closely follows the growing Chinese market? "Given time, in another five or six years, can you imagine Volkswagen's sales volume and stock price?" or something like that? Can you tell me directly what you think?"
"Because you are indeed right. Since entering the Chinese market in 1985, Volkswagen has established 5 joint ventures in Shanghai, Changchun and other places, and the year-on-year growth of 43% not only proves that Volkswagen's development plan in China is pragmatic and correct It also shows that the Chinese market is an emerging market that is growing rapidly. And I have mentioned to you before that many US and German stocks are undervalued or even seriously undervalued, and they are indeed worth a try."
Dong Qiangqiang understood this immediately: "I understand. What you agree with is that Volkswagen can create more room for growth in the domestic market. What you don't agree with is my hypothesis, because you think there is growth in Volkswagen's international market. The possibility of slowing down or even regressing, the data from 2002 illustrates this, and the unfavorable factors in the international market are the real negative factors that threaten the public, is that right?"
"Hey, your listening skills have improved very quickly now." Duanmu praised, "Not bad, you can teach me."
"Hurry up and get down to business, so I can check and fill in the gaps and improve business." Dong Qiangqiang said seriously.
Duanmu cleared his throat: "You are right. As the largest automobile manufacturer in Europe, Volkswagen has faced a rare critical moment in its history since the first half of 2002. You can see this from the stock price of its common stock. Come out. The stock price has been falling since April 2002, and by this month it has dropped to almost 35 euros per share. The decline in delivery volume seems to be increasing unabated. Investors believe that this may be related to the lack of orders in the international market, and The lack of orders is closely related to the international pricing and technical processes of Volkswagen's different models. This is one. Second, the United States is the main overseas market for all European car manufacturers. 20% to 40% of Germany's cars are sold to the United States every year. Volkswagen ranks among the top three, and the majority of corporate profits naturally come from there. As the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar against the euro continues to decline, the price of Volkswagen's exported cars has been raised, and profits have also been reduced. The company converts the U.S. dollars earned into When the euro is exchanged, profits will shrink significantly. This is the profit loss caused by exchange rate fluctuations to export companies. This loss may be hundreds of millions or more than a billion euros. Of course, it is not only Volkswagen, but also other European car manufacturers. Painful. In addition, the rise in international crude oil prices you just mentioned will also bring fluctuations in its profits. Of course, the parameter of oil prices is really difficult to evaluate. In addition, it has not disclosed its full-year profit target for 2003. Although this is It’s not bad, but for investors, going long at this time does involve high risks.”
"I understand when you say that. No wonder in the analysis articles I read before, German investment institutions did not have a particularly optimistic attitude towards Volkswagen's performance in the past two years. It turns out that is the case." Dong Qiangqiang suddenly realized, "I used to think I feel that exchange rate fluctuations are macroeconomic issues that are only considered at the national level and have nothing to do with small people like us. I didn’t expect it to be so closely related to investment. I’ve learned a lot.”
"That's why I agree with what you said. It was really not easy for Volkswagen to achieve such excellent results in the domestic market last year. It may have found a golden key."
"Then let me summarize your point of view: In addition to weak market demand and exchange rate fluctuations, the factors that you think may affect Volkswagen's international market sales performance are also the risk of rising international crude oil prices. If we are long Volkswagen, then we actually have to The judgment is whether Volkswagen's sales in the Chinese market in 2003 will be better than last year. At the same time, the performance growth rate (in the Chinese market) can make up for the possible reduction in sales revenue in the international market. That is to say, the number of cars it sells less in the international market must be reduced. Only by overwhelming the number of cars sold in the Chinese market can we achieve a substantial increase in global sales and an increase in stock prices."
"That's right."
"Then can you tell me whether you are more inclined to be bullish or bearish now? I feel that you are not optimistic about the public." Dong Qiangqiang suddenly had a strong desire to find out what happened.
“After reading too much information, people may fall into a pessimistic or overly calm mood, which is not necessarily a good thing for investment. They may ignore or avoid some valuable information, so we We all need to listen to different ideas, and diverse voices can help us improve our investment logic, and if our views on anything are completely the same without full discussion, that's actually not good."
"I have a question. What you can always get is historical data. If you predict the future based on historical data, it is still a slap in the face. If the person taking the picture is optimistic, the prediction result will be positive. If the person taking the picture is pessimistic, the prediction will be conservative. . No matter how supported by logic and data, any prediction is still dominated by the subjective desire of the forecaster." Dong Qiangqiang said, "It feels almost like buying a lottery ticket, but I have never heard of any lottery winner who relied on historical data to predict the future winning number. of."
"Of course, no matter how rigorous the prediction is, it is not natural science, it is just a methodology. I do not reject or object to the public going long, but we all need to collect more data. Fully demonstrate, make bold predictions, and leave the rest to fate . Now, since we have all talked about it up to this point, why not take out all the goods we have and sort them out, keep the good ones and get rid of the bad ones, and then calculate last year’s accounts and see if there is a profit. With the dividends, I can come up with the investment plan as soon as possible, and it won’t delay things if I really invest in the public. You enter the account now, and we will go through it one by one. "
"You forgot that I don't have an Internet connection here," Dong Qiangqiang said with a wry smile, "but I can send you the stock codes of the long options through text messages."
"It's a waste of time that you don't have an internet connection. Why won't the old lady let you install an internet connection?" Duanmu complained, "It's a waste of time for Germans to be so old-fashioned. If you ask me, you should take advantage of the holidays to persuade her, even if it's more than a month. You can give her some expenses, or you can make her delicious food every day to make her happy. People are short-tongued, and the Germans are the same."
"We'll talk about the Internet later. Why did you think of dividends?"
Duanmu did mention the bonus to Dong Qiangqiang before, but Dong Qiangqiang thought it was Duanmu's temporary joke.
Duanmu laughed and replied: "I have always said that I want to pay dividends. I was under a lot of pressure before and I was always worried about not being able to complete the bet with Anderson. Later, the bet agreement was cancelled, and the company's income was okay, so we both had to work hard for a year. Now, it’s natural to improve our lives. After all, we didn’t get a penny of salary last year, and of course we still don’t get any salary this year.”
Note: Volkswagen stocks are divided into ordinary stocks and preferred stocks. The dual-class system is a tradition of many large German companies. The stock prices and equity of the two are different. Generally speaking, preferred stocks are cheap, have no voting rights, and pay generous dividends. Common stocks are relatively more expensive, have voting rights, and pay smaller dividends. German companies generally control the company's management rights by holding more common shares. However, the dual-class structure has flaws. After investors from other countries repeatedly exploited the flaws for arbitrage, some large German companies have abolished preferred shares and only retained common stock.
(End of chapter)
