Faced with the demands of the student union relayed by Dong Qiangqiang, Lao Bai only said that there was no one at hand: he and Lele were still at BJ, and while Lao Ding was busy preparing for the exam, he had already formed a group with Dong Yiqing to attend the one-week 54th International Toy Fair in Nuremberg. domestic business group, and on the day of departure, they had to pick up the domestic business group who was going to Berlin to participate in the Jiangxi JDZ Craft Ceramics and Mahogany Furniture Exhibition. Although Lei Lanting didn't have to take the exam, he disappeared. No one could find him. Even He Yuanjin didn't know where he had gone. He called his cell phone and went directly to his phone and mailbox. The other tour guides signed by Lebai are also in similar situations. He is also a clever woman who cannot make a meal without rice. Dong Qiangqiang was confused: If no one was free, why did he ask him to advertise in the first place? I can't help but guess that Lao Bai might want to vent his anger on his behalf.
Lao Bai stood still, and the forum was already agitated. Some people couldn't help but started to curse, saying that the student union and Dong Qiangqiang would only deceive their own compatriots and go back on their word. Zheng Chunhua couldn't bear the scolding and had no choice but to seek help from Dong Qiangqiang again. Dong Qiangqiang discussed with Lao Bai and suggested that the seven-country tour should be arranged in late March. If Dong Qiangqiang has not returned to China by then, Dong Qiangqiang will take it himself. If Lebai has a tour guide who is free, Lebai will take it. Anyway, everyone has to prepare for the exam in February, and it will start in March. There are exams in mid-March, and the summer semester has not yet started in late March. The time is just right, and I stated that it is only this time and will not happen next time. Lao Bai couldn't resist Dong Qiangqiang, so he had to agree. Dong Qiangqiang posted the schedule of the seven-country tour on the forum, which calmed the public anger.
Duanmu took the initiative to call Dong Qiangqiang, either for financing or investment, but there were occasional exceptions: one was against Dong Qiangqiang's return to China, and the other was to advise Dong Qiangqiang to take the CFA exam as soon as possible.
"I asked you to go to the university examination center to ask about the CFA exam exemption before?" Duanmu spoke quickly, "I heard that as long as students can pass the three CFA exams from beginner to advanced and get the CFA certificate, the University of Frankfurt The examination center can waive the final major exam for economics students. Students only need to take the other two major exams. Of course, the small exam cannot be waived. Does your school also have such a course exemption process?"
"We don't have it. Currently, there is no precedent for the University of Trier to certify CFA results. After all, it is a certificate created by Americans. However, the examination center is studying it and said that it is estimated that the results will be available in another 1-2 semesters, so that I’ll ask again next semester.”
"If this is the case, I suggest you don't worry about whether the university recognizes it or not, and start taking the exam this year. There will be an exam opportunity for CFA Level 1 at the end of the year. You can check the official website for details of November or December. Both Level 1 and Level 1 exams are all For multiple-choice questions, only Level 3 consists of multiple-choice questions plus case analysis questions. In short, I’m not afraid of you being stupid. As long as you stick to the question-sea strategy, you can still pass easily. You (take) Level 1 this year, Level 2 next year, and Level 3 the year after that. Waiting for you. I graduated with a master's degree, got my certificate, and the time is right. This exam is good everywhere, but the exam fee is expensive. Of course, the first level is more expensive, more than 1,000 euros, and the second and third levels are about 1,000 euros. It's still early to register. The bird price can be cheaper.”
"More than 1,000 euros for one exam? So expensive?" Dong Qiangqiang couldn't help but click his tongue, "Studying finance is really expensive. You haven't even made any money yet. You have to spend so much first."
"Well, it's really expensive, but it's also hard. Europe and the United States recognize it, and I guess China will recognize it sooner or later. After you pass the exam, you can put the three letters of CFA on your business card. Sooner or later, you will have to go to the United States, right? During the negotiation Once you have a German university diploma and a CFA, investment institutions will not dare to look down on you easily. It is much more useful than a simple master's degree. Besides, there are many exam centers in Germany, including Frankfurt, Hamburg, and Munich. In fact, the most important thing is People's brains work best when they are in school, so you can take the test easily and save time. I am obviously not as efficient at answering questions now as when I was studying before, and I have less time to prepare. It is a lot of things. You stupid bird will fly first. Prepare for the exam at the beginning of the year and at the end of the year. You have plenty of time, so you are right to listen to me.”
Duanmu works in a financial company. Since he suggested this, Dong Qiangqiang believed that he had a reason.
"So is the passing rate of this exam high? Can the company reimburse me if I haven't passed the exam?" Dong Qiangqiang just paid nearly a thousand euros. "It's really not cheap."
"You can apply if you pass the exam, but if you haven't, you can pay for it at your own expense. Otherwise, if you fail the exam again and again, the company won't compensate your grandma's house?" Duanmu changed the topic, "By the way, have you read the news? The US space shuttle accident happened at the beginning of the month. Do you understand?"
Dong Qiangqiang knew that Duanmu was asking about the tragic accident in which the US space shuttle Columbia disintegrated in the air when it returned to the ground on February 1. Duanmu immediately persuaded him to buy put options from the insurance company after thinking of "911". Dong Qiangqiang knew that he There must be an idea.
"Do you want to buy put options on U.S. listed companies such as aviation, aerospace, tires, and engines? Many of these (companies) in the U.S. stock market are big players, and there are even many military-industrial complexes. They are strong-willed and confident. , besides, this kind of accident is neither a financial fraud scandal nor a terrorist attack like '911', but a tragedy of human spaceflight. It will not have long-term negative effects, and I am afraid it will not be easy to do (short). If we still act like As last year, it should still be relatively easy to focus on listed companies with financial problems or business problems."
"You guessed it," Duanmu said with a smile, "Yes, it seems that not only the investment sense is sharper than last year, but also some things have been read. This view is also prevailing on Wall Street."
"I don't know if my investment sense has improved, but I do have new ideas recently, and I would like to hear your opinion."
"Oh, really? What a coincidence, I have a few here, let you talk first." The sound of Duanmu clicking the mouse and typing the keyboard came from the phone.
Dong Qiangqiang was not polite: "In February, two car companies issued press releases. One was that BMW held a new car launch conference of the BMW Z4 two-seater convertible sports car in Xiamen. At the same time, it was announced that the sports car would be launched in the Chinese market as soon as possible after the display. Sales. Second, on the 12th, Volkswagen announced that Volkswagen Group's sales in China in 2002 increased by 43% year-on-year, with a total of 511,000 cars sold. China has become Volkswagen's second largest market in the world after Germany."
"Then what do you think of these two things?" Duanmu asked, "Do you have any ideas?"
“Twenty years ago, when other overseas car companies were still looking at China across the sea, Volkswagen had already ambitiously opened its first factory in China. At that time, although the Sino-US joint venture BJ Jeep had just landed, there was almost no competition. Exists. The Volkswagen Santana sedan, based on the early version of the Passat, quickly became the spokesperson of Volkswagen in China, and now the latest model is the Santana 2000."
"I also know this. Santana has different interpretations in different languages. In Portuguese, it is 'Virgin Mary', but I think what the public refers to is its Spanish meaning, which is 'hurricane in the canyon'. Duanmu added.
"It must be said that this name fully reflects the eagerness of Volkswagen, which has just entered China, to use this car to blow its own hurricane in China, which has not been open to the public for a long time. The fact is that as it wishes, in some years, China The market contributes almost half of Volkswagen's revenue. Today, not only Volkswagen, but also BMW and Mercedes-Benz are accelerating their entry into the Chinese market. You ask me what I think of these two things. I think this is actually the same thing: with the rapid development of China After joining the WTO, the Chinese market is no longer a distant desert oasis for these international giants, but has become a wealth within reach. Of course, not all foreign car companies are optimistic about the Chinese market. There are more and more foreign car companies selling cars in China, but there are very few car companies that can be as bold as Volkswagen and spend so much real money to invest in building production lines in China. After seeing the news, I immediately checked Volkswagen. The financial reports of several years before 2001 were not particularly eye-catching and could only be said to be quite satisfactory. The reason why last year’s performance grew so rapidly is, I think, related to the fact that the public is becoming more and more understanding and concerned about the Chinese market. They will care about the local market. What kind of cars do people like, what kind of driving experience do they like, what are their preferences for power and comfort, and they are even willing to customize cars for the Chinese market. As the old saying goes, it is better to seize the opportunity than to take advantage of the situation. Since Volkswagen is developing better and better in China, then Should we also ride on this shareholder trend and go long on the public? Didn’t you also say before that stock prices are actually investors’ expectations for the future development of listed companies?”
Dong Qiangqiang was chatting, but Duanmu on the other end of the phone didn't say anything for a while. Dong Qiangqiang thought he was disconnected. After saying "Hey, hey" twice, Duanmu on the other end of the phone said with emotion: "I didn't expect that we wanted to go together this time." Well, in fact, what I just wanted to mention to you is also Volkswagen. I agree with your point of view. I also think that no foreign car company can compare with the current Volkswagen, because Volkswagen closely follows the growing Chinese market. You It has only been a year and three months since we joined the WTO that Volkswagen can achieve such results. If time passes, in another five or six years, can you imagine Volkswagen's sales volume and stock price? I can't imagine it, and I don't dare to think about it."
After Duanmu finished expressing his thoughts, Dong Qiangqiang continued: "After I had the idea of going long, I looked for all the information I could find. Volkswagen is so famous, it is a listed company and a DAX index stock, no matter it is financial reports , industry reports, or special reports, you can find a lot of information, and you can even find many analysis articles written by regulatory agencies for it. But what’s interesting is that ordinary Germans don’t seem to be particularly optimistic about Volkswagen’s development in China The attitude is far less profound than that of the investment banks on Wall Street. Of course, I also understand why the Germans are so rational. After all, Volkswagen has entered China since the 1980s. It has been almost 20 years. You want to say that Volkswagen will soon No one believes in getting rich suddenly. Germans pay more attention to gradual and steady development. So I think if Volkswagen does not commit financial fraud, it is definitely worth your investment. Lao Bai and Tong Lele were at BJ during this time, and I asked them to help I counted them in different areas and found that basically half of the ten cars on the road are Volkswagens. In addition to Santana, there are also Passat, Bora, Golf, POLO, and I heard that the Beetle will also start to be sold in China this year... ...Judging from this situation, I believe the data they released is true. Of course, you may also be concerned about indicators such as working capital, inventory, and inventory turnover rate. These are all in the financial report and can be seen by all investors, but I think What I’m saying is that not all investors will have the same understanding and confidence in Volkswagen as you and I do, because Volkswagen will definitely be closely related to the Chinese market in the next five, 10 years or even longer.”
"You reminded me of this. I will go find out if there are short or long positions in the company in a moment. I will tell you after we finish the conversation. Do you have any other ideas or discoveries? Tell me."
"In addition to studying Volkswagen's previous history, financial indicators and industry development, I also roughly reviewed all the Volkswagen long options on the market. In comparison, although several of Deutsche Bank's options are moderately priced, they have short option cycles. There are only three types: 3 months, 6 months and 9 months. Several models from Commerzbank have suitable periods, with the longest being 2 years, but the price is high and there are few American options, mainly European options. Deutsche Post Banks and KfW have few products in this area, so I haven’t done much research. Overall, Citibank has the best value for money and a long cycle. In addition, the several turbine warrants they sell are also good. You can take a look if you have time. . It’s not a problem for Lao Maozi to keep his money all the time. It’s better to use part of it to buy Volkswagen’s stocks, and use part to buy long options. The remaining money can be used as working capital to cover positions. If you are worried about risks, you can allocate some put options. Use it as a hedge to avoid losing too much if it doesn't rise but falls instead. You can calculate the specific ratio. Aren't you a math major? This question will certainly not trouble you."
"That's no problem. I'll calculate the ratio later and come up with a few plans before we vote." After Duanmu finished speaking, he fell silent again. Just when Dong Qiangqiang thought he had other things to do and was about to end the conversation, Duanmu spoke again, his tone There was a rare vibrato, and even through the mobile phone Dong Qiangqiang could hear his excitement, "Old Dong, we might be able to reap the dividends of the times from the public this time. You know you may only have one or two opportunities in your life, seize it. You can achieve financial freedom and change your destiny.”
"Financial freedom and a change in destiny, how can it be as exaggerated as what you said?" Dong Qiangqiang said seriously, "Don't get excited yet, listen to me continue. What I just said is a benefit to the public, but it is not There’s no downside.”
(End of chapter)
