"No, no!" "Big Back Head" shook his head and lectured Dong Qiangqiang seriously, "The RMB has not appreciated, it has been devaluing, just to promote exports..."
Dong Qiangqiang was really surprised that the other party's remarks were exactly the same as those of the American and some German media. But what surprised him was not that the other party had not studied economics, but that the other party's identity and speech did not match. According to his understanding, shouldn't those who have received higher education, especially those who are the "big losers" in German higher education, have basic theoretical knowledge and cognitive logic?
He looked at the professor doubtfully, but unexpectedly he happened to catch the professor's "knowledge-seeking" gaze.
"Theoretically, if a country's currency continues to depreciate, it is indeed beneficial to exports, but after the 1997 Asian financial crisis, in fact, no Asian country dared to let its currency depreciate, and China has insisted that the RMB will not depreciate since the 1997 Asian financial crisis. This It is also a fact that all countries have witnessed and recognized. In addition, although currency depreciation is beneficial to exports, according to economic theory, continued depreciation can easily cause an increase in local currency inflation or even hyperinflation. Although several years have passed since the 1997 Asian financial crisis, However, Asian countries have not completely emerged from the crisis and are still slowly recovering. In this environment, it is unreasonable and unworkable for (central banks) to allow currency depreciation, let alone risk rising domestic inflation in order to protect exports. "Dong Qiangqiang took a deep breath and continued, "In addition, I need to correct what you just said. According to economic theory, a country's continued trade surplus will cause appreciation pressure on its currency, not the other way around, but the central bank will not let the RMB appreciate. Because the consequences of that are obvious. So we can clearly see that even according to the standards set by the United States itself, China is not a currency manipulator." Dong Qiangqiang concluded.
"Wait! What consequences are you referring to?" "Big Back Head" asked with a frown.
"Please explain the possible consequences if the RMB appreciates." The professor and "Big Beitou" who had been silent for a long time asked in unison.
"If you understand the history of U.S. trade, you will know that the United States often threatens countries that have a trade surplus with the United States, then labels those countries as currency manipulators, and then imposes sanctions, such as punitive tariffs." Dong Qiangqiang tries not to use adjectives in sentences , because the emotion expressed by the adjective is too heavy, which is not conducive for the other party to accept his point of view. Although he is not trying to persuade the other party, he still hopes that the other party can accept his point of view and conclusion. “For example, in the 1960s, there was a growing trade deficit between the United States and the Federal Republic of Germany (West Germany). At that time, the United States accused West Germany of manipulating the exchange rate and demanded that the West German Mark appreciate. Although the West German Mark was reluctant, it finally surrendered to pressure from the US government. The decision was made to allow the West German Mark to appreciate significantly."
He deliberately said "due to pressure from the U.S. government" very hard, just to see if "Big Back Head" and the doctor would be embarrassed. Unexpectedly, both of them looked curious and did not say anything to stop him from continuing. .
"In the 1980s, the United States started a trade war with Japan because of its trade deficit with Japan. Finally, it used the Plaza Accord to force the yen to appreciate, and the yen unsurprisingly followed in the footsteps of the West German mark." Dong Qiangqiang After a pause, and just as he was about to continue, his cell phone suddenly vibrated in his trouser pocket. He quickly pressed the "off" button through his trouser pocket, "It can be seen that as long as a country has a trade deficit with the United States, that country's exchange rate will be considered to be controlled by the United States, and it must act in accordance with the requirements of the United States. . And now, the United States says that the RMB exchange rate is controlled. This is exactly the same wording as it used decades ago."
Not only was there silence in the room, but there seemed to be no sound in the corridor.
"If the United States' accusations against these countries are correct, then when the exchange rates of these countries appreciate significantly as required, the trade balance between the United States and these countries should decline rather than rise. But what is interesting is that whether it is the 1960s or the 1980s, In the 1990s, people can notice the fact that after the currency appreciation, the trade surplus of West Germany and Japan with the United States not only did not decline, but continued to rise. In other words, no matter how the exchange rate changes, the United States has not achieved the goal of trade balance. . But both West Germany and Japan have experienced varying degrees of slowdown or stagnation in their economic development due to currency appreciation. The RMB is not the West German mark, nor is it the Japanese yen, so China will not continue to do so after seeing so many tragic examples ( appreciation). According to data from the German Federal Statistical Office, before 1990, Germany had maintained a perennial trade surplus with China, but China did not accuse Germany of being a currency manipulator. Since 1990, China has maintained trade with Germany. surplus, Germany did not say that China is a currency manipulator. Why have Germany and China become currency manipulators in the United States? Also, in addition to China, there are some countries that are members of the International Monetary Fund. The currency maintains a fixed exchange rate with the US dollar, but these countries and the United States have perennial trade deficits, so it is rare to hear the United States accuse them of being currency manipulators. Does this mean that currency manipulators are just an excuse for the United States to accuse other countries? Use this excuse to suppress and sanction countries with trade surpluses with the United States to force them to make concessions?"
This sentence was like a burst of intensive machine gun fire. The two of them were swept through a sieve. "Big Back Head" fell into deep thought, while the doctor's expression was confused. Only the professor looked like he had found a treasure.
"So what you mean by 'managed floating exchange rate' is to achieve a certain balance by controlling the exchange rate?" The professor smiled and made a seesaw motion in the air with his hand.
"I think the word 'control' you mentioned is too mechanical and rigid, and too planned. The central bank will not do it and cannot achieve it, because there will definitely be many thorny problems in practice. In fact, I think the central bank has always We are committed to allowing the exchange rate to play its due role according to the normal order of the market based on a basket of currencies. This way we can avoid overcorrection by the invisible hand and prevent the risk of out-of-control caused by a purely floating exchange rate. It is more like Pursue a dynamic balance between the two, rather than simply and crudely setting a balance point. Of course, this is just my personal interpretation, and the final right of interpretation belongs to the central bank." Dong Qiangqiang emphasized, "Finally, I would like to add one more point, It’s already 2002, and there are still many countries in the world that are following the United States and criticizing the RMB. This is something that puzzles me, and it is also one of the reasons why I went to Germany to learn advanced knowledge.”
Although the professor didn't ask at all, Dong Qiangqiang felt that he needed to express his indignation and the purpose of coming to Germany to study.
Speaking of which, he felt that his performance today could be rated 95 points. He had expressed everything he knew.
"No shame" and "relieved" are his most intuitive feelings now.
The professor used his eyes to consult Big Back Head and the doctor for their opinions, but both of them were speechless. Finally, the professor crossed his palms to his chest and said, "Please go out and wait. I will invite you in later."
Dong Qiangqiang thanked him and exited the office.
"Hey, you talked for 45 minutes!" As soon as Dong Qiangqiang walked out of the office, Zheng Chunhua immediately came up to him and praised with admiration, "You kid can do it! I can hear your voice outside, but I didn't look at it You are quite brave to speak out, unlike some people who are short to begin with and get even shorter when they see foreigners.
"Have I stayed for so long?" Although Dong Qiangqiang was in a daze, he could still tell that the person she was talking about was Wang Yun, but he was not curious at all now.
"Can I still lie to you?" Zheng Chunhua pointed to the watch on her wrist with a smile, suddenly noticed something, and asked with concern, "You sweat a lot..."
After she said this, Dong Qiangqiang realized that his shirt was soaked through and he felt very tired. This interview was much more tiring than hunting a wild boar. He felt hungry, even though it was not yet eleven o'clock.
"Well, I didn't feel it when I was inside. Now I just feel thirsty and hungry."
"From my experience, if you can usually survive such a long period of time, you must be fine."
"I've said everything I can say, just leave it to fate..."
"You have a good attitude." Zheng Chunhua consoled her, "I really don't have much hope for being exempted from classes. Maybe the result will be a surprise."
Dong Qiangqiang then remembered that he seemed to have hung up on a phone call just now, and quickly took out his cell phone.
"By the way, the university cafeteria is open. I'll take you there later." Zheng Chunhua said to Dong Qiangqiang who was staring at his phone.
"Okay. Then I'll treat you." Dong Qiangqiang remembered that he still owed the other party a meal and said quickly, "This time it must be mine."
Zheng Chunhua looked him up and down, did not refuse his proposal, and suddenly said: "There is something I want to discuss with you."
"you say."
"You are very eloquent. I want you to be the propaganda minister of the student union. Are you interested in giving it a try?"
Dong Qiangqiang was surprised: "Me?"
Zheng Chunhua nodded solemnly: "Yes, you have very good conditions in all aspects and are very suitable for this position."
"But I didn't even find the house," Dong Qiangqiang lowered his head and glanced at the phone that was on. "I really don't have much free time in the short term. Please understand."
"You should think about it first, don't refuse in a hurry." Zheng Chunhua seemed to have anticipated Dong Qiangqiang's attitude, "I have already paid attention to the house matter for you, and I will tell you in detail at lunch later."
This sentence was beyond Dong Qiangqiang's expectation. He wanted to refuse, but he didn't know where to start. He was speechless for a moment.
"There are more wolves than meat here. Helping everyone find housing is one of the jobs of the student union. It's not just for you." Zheng Chunhua gestured, "So the student union is very important to every student, and I hope everyone can Contribute to the student union.”
Her eyes were sincere and magnanimous. Dong Qiangqiang felt a little ashamed and quickly looked down at the missed calls.
When he saw that the name of the missed call was Duanmu, he thought seriously for two seconds and put the phone away. Since the advent of various online communication tools, OICQ or MSN are used more and more to communicate with friends. If you make a direct phone call, it is probably not a good thing.
"Then it's settled?" Zheng Chunhua asked.
"good."
At this time, a male voice sounded in the office: "Dong Qiangqiang, please come in."
Zheng Chunhua gave him a thumbs up: "The results are out, I wish you good luck!"
Dong Qiangqiang nodded, took a deep breath, and walked into the office with his head held high.
===
It’s not easy to be original. Welcome up. Click %中¥文#网 to support the genuine and original version of "Dong Qiangqiang's Story of Staying in Virtue".
