"Excuse me, is this question still a class-exemption certification?" Dong Qiangqiang judged that the current question had nothing to do with class-exemption, but he was still a little worried because he knew that his answer might not be what the other party wanted to hear.
After Big Beitou looked meaningfully at the doctor and professor, he looked at Dong Qiangqiang with squinted eyes and said expressionlessly: "You can say whatever you think."
As if he heard Dong Qiangqiang's worries, the professor waved his hand and encouraged him: "You can express your ideas boldly."
Dong Qiangqiang felt clear-headed, and neither of them answered his question directly. He secretly reminded himself: It seems that it is still a class-free interview. He must not think about debating with the other party, let alone persuade the other party to accept his point of view. Although the other party has "exchange rate manipulation" on the left and "fixed exchange rate" on the right, it seems that China's exchange rate system has deeply hurt him. But to take a step back, even if the "big beitou" doesn't agree with his point of view, he can't do anything to him. The "big beitou" is just an observer, and the professor is the one who makes the final decision. Even the professor doesn't agree. As long as Dong Qiangqiang can explain his logic clearly and fluently, the professor cannot make things difficult for him in free classes because he has different views from Dong Qiangqiang. Although he can't judge the professor's attitude now, since the professor allows him to be bold To express, let’s start by attacking the “big back head” head-on. Just in case, just in case the professor really gives him a hard time because of his answer to this question, then the degree will come second.
Because the attitude of a Chinese student can represent a lot.
Dong Qiangqiang, who wanted to understand this, straightened his waist and tightened his core at the same time, clearly showing his answer.
"First of all, I want to state that China is a sovereign country and the exchange rate is China's internal affairs. No matter what exchange rate system is used, it should be decided by China. Other countries have no right to interfere. Similarly, China will not have any influence on the U.S. dollar exchange rate and the euro exchange rate. Pointing fingers. Secondly, the Central Bank of China has used fixed exchange rates for a long time, so it is very clear about its pros and cons. If the pros outweigh the cons, no matter what the outside world says, it is normal for a country to prioritize safeguarding its own interests. Any Any Western country would do this."
When he was in China, Dong Qiangqiang never felt that he was very patriotic, and even turned into an angry youth when he saw many injustices. But from the moment he set foot on German soil, he seemed to become a patriot. Whether he was discussing China-related topics with his classmates and teachers in the preparatory course, or angrily attacking German reporters at the Cologne Carnival, he was never timid.
The room was quiet, no one interrupted Dong Qiangqiang, and he could even hear the voices of people talking outside the corridor.
"After the 1997 Asian financial crisis, the international economy and international financial markets have undergone tremendous changes. Fixed exchange rates are no longer suitable for China's national conditions, because the exchange rate is affected by a country's domestic and international dual flows of funds, domestic production and manufacturing, people's work, Determined by the combined influence of many factors such as life and various expectations, it is actually difficult to fix. That is why the Central Bank of China implements a managed floating exchange rate system that is adjusted with reference to a basket of currencies. In the basket of reference currencies announced by the Central Bank of China In addition to the US dollar, there are also euros, pounds, Russian rubles, Swiss francs, Japanese yen, South African rand, UAE dirhams, Danish krone and other currencies. In fact, after getting rid of the gold standard, the US dollar is also anchored to a basket of currencies. The U.S. dollar basket contains all the currencies in the RMB basket, except the U.S. dollar itself. Different currencies have different weights in the RMB basket. Strong currencies such as the U.S. dollar, euro, and pound sterling will definitely have higher weights than other currencies. If the U.S. dollar is in the basket has the highest weight, it will appear as if the RMB is pegged to the U.S. dollar. Just now you said that the equivalent of 1 U.S. dollar in RMB always hovers between 8 and 8.5 yuan, but the U.S. dollar against the euro and the U.S. dollar against the yen are also in a range There will be slight fluctuations within the market.”
Dong Qiangqiang estimated that the patience of the "big back head" has been exhausted, and he immediately turned to summary: "The experience of the Central Bank of China shows that the risk of referring to a basket of currencies is far lower than the risk of anchoring a single currency, and the RMB can no longer be completely pegged to the US dollar exchange rate. Or the official currency of any other sovereign country. Especially after the 1997 Asian financial crisis, binding to the official currency of other countries is equivalent to binding that country’s monetary policy, which means huge risks for any sovereign country. . Once the bound country allows its currency to depreciate, the currency of the bound country will be directly implicated. No Asian country can currently withstand the test of currency depreciation. If China is only anchored like the currencies of some Southeast Asian countries US dollar, the final result must be to face huge domestic financial risks. China is a big country, and the exchange rate system involves many industries and hundreds of millions of practitioners. It is impossible for China to accept the fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate like company stocks in the capital market. It fluctuates every day, which is why China chooses a managed floating exchange rate system."
Dong Qiangqiang didn't speak fluently in this long series of words, and even made many mistakes in words and grammar. He couldn't tell whether he was nervous or timid. He only felt that his shirt was wet and stuck to his back, which was very uncomfortable.
"Big Back Head" seemed a little impatient and stretched out his hand to signal Dong Qiangqiang to stop: "Then how do you explain the currency manipulator?"
Dong Qiangqiang has a clear eye on the situation: Just now, the "big back head" asked him what he thought of currency manipulators, and now he has to "explain" himself. It seems that the other party's real goal is here.
"So what you are concerned about is whether China is an exchange rate manipulator, right?" Seeing that the professor did not intervene, Dong Qiangqiang boldly raised the question more pointedly, "As for whether it is a fixed exchange rate or a managed floating exchange rate system, there is actually no difference. "
"Big Back Head" blinked slyly, his gaze becoming deeper and deeper. He stared at Dong Qiangqiang noncommittally, but did not make any answer.
Since the other party did not deny it, Dong Qiangqiang took it as his acquiescence and continued: "According to the "Trade and Competitiveness Comprehensive Act" promulgated by the United States in 1988, the U.S. Treasury Department will issue the "International Economic and Exchange Rate Policy Report" twice a year, which will Assess whether U.S. trading partners, especially countries that have trade surpluses with the U.S. all year round, are manipulating exchange rates. According to the current Bush administration’s standards, a country will be identified as a currency manipulator when all of the following four conditions are met. First, the country It is a large trading partner of the United States and its annual trade volume exceeds 55 billion U.S. dollars. China’s total trade with the United States reached 74.47 billion U.S. dollars and 80.48 billion U.S. dollars in 2000 and 2001 respectively, so this article is consistent. Secondly, the country’s trade with the United States The huge trade surplus exceeds 20 billion US dollars every year. China's trade surplus with the United States reached 22.42 billion US dollars and 28.08 billion US dollars respectively in 2000 and 2001, which is also consistent with this."
Seeing that both of Dong Qiangqiang's words were in line, "Big Back Head"'s eyes sparkled, his expression was smug, as if he was quite satisfied with Dong Qiangqiang's answer.
"Third, the country has a huge global current account surplus, and the ratio to its GDP exceeds 3%. Data shows that China's current account surplus in 2001 was 139.242 billion yuan, while GDP was 11.086312 billion yuan. The ratio is 1.25%, which is not even half of the 3% stipulated in the United States, and the figure in 2000 was not even 1%. So this is not consistent."
Although Dong Qiangqiang memorized these numbers by heart, he still spoke very slowly. He did not want the other party to catch a loophole by saying any wrong number.
The facts were as he expected. "Big Back Head" did not expect that the data would suddenly reverse. The smile that had just appeared disappeared in the blink of an eye. His eyes that were wide open narrowed again, and a cold gray appeared on his face. The frost made the face look even more ugly.
"The fourth point is that the country continues to actively intervene in the exchange rate in one direction in the foreign exchange market. Anyone who has studied economics knows that there are only two possibilities for continued one-way intervention: either the currency appreciates or depreciates..."
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