"Since you think you won't be able to find the answer for a while, you might as well think about it while applying. Didn't the ancients say, 'The road is long and long, and I will search up and down'? If you really can't figure it out, at least choose one first. Study the major you are interested in now. If you are not interested now, you will most likely not be interested in the future. If you are not interested, it may be difficult to persist in studying at a German university."
"What about you? Have you decided where to go?" Wang Shunan's face seemed to be rosier than before, "Are you majoring in economics?"
"Although it is not as good as medicine and law, economics majors have become more and more popular in Germany in recent years. Not to mention the restrictions, the waiting time is not long enough, and I am not sure where I can go in the end. Now it seems that I can apply Just go wherever you want, and let your body swing like catkins in the wind." Dong Qiangqiang made a happy-go-lucky expression.
"You are too modest. I have always thought you have a lot of ideas. Even if you don't study economics and study something else, there should be no problem." Wang Shunan mistakenly thought that Dong Qiangqiang did not do well in the exam, and comforted him, "You should apply more."
"Haitian investment is a must. At least I have to submit all the notarization materials I have memorized. As for the result, I can only do my best and let fate." Dong Qiangqiang said half-jokingly and half-seriously, "If no one wants it, I will stay. If you work illegally, you have to save some money before leaving."
"Then I wish you...oh no, wish us all good luck!" Wang Shunan stared at Dong Qiangqiang's face, "The mountains are high and the rivers are long. If we change cities, it may not be easy to see each other again. Make a call when you have time."
"The same to you!"
"Would you like a hug?" Wang Shunan's face was as hot as burning coals, but it was not noticeable because of her dark skin.
"Um?"
Before Dong Qiangqiang could react, Wang Shunan had already opened his arms like a bird learning to fly, stood on tiptoes and hugged his waist.
Dong Qiangqiang had no choice but to bend down and hug her shoulders.
"Nice to meet you." Her voice was very soft, "Take care!"
"Oh, okay. You too." Dong Qiangqiang looked at the classmates behind Wang Shunan with a blushing face, showing a shy and embarrassed smile.
Prep parking lot.
Dong Qiangqiang didn't know why Wang Shunan suddenly acted like that. He hesitated whether he should mention the matter to Du Lanti, and was worried that if he didn't explain it well...
He called his parents to announce the news. Dong's father, as always, conducted a critical education, requiring Dong Qiangqiang to have a broad vision and not be limited to a small master's degree. He should aim high and aim for a doctorate or even a postdoctoral degree.
Compared with Dong's father who is unrealistic, Dong's mother seems to be much more pragmatic. She cares about where her son will go to study next, whether he has enough money to spend, whether there are any difficulties or obstacles in study and work, and whether he is looking for it now. Short-term topics such as girlfriends, but long-term questions such as how long it will take to graduate with a master's degree and whether to return to China after graduation were not asked at all.
Dong Qiangqiang was worried that Dong's mother would bring the conversation to Qin Youbo again, saying that he had to apply for college in the afternoon, so Dong's mother reluctantly hung up the phone.
As soon as he started the car, he saw two figures striding out of the main entrance of the preparatory school. The person in front was Qu Shan, and the person behind him should be her boyfriend named Fu Baining based on his height.
The two seemed to have had a quarrel, talking fiercely and making gestures. Suddenly, Qu Shan angrily threw something to the ground. Seeing this, Fu Baining stepped forward and pushed her hard. Qu Shan was Pushing her to the ground, Fu Baining pointed at her and cursed a few times before walking away.
Dong Qiangqiang didn't know why the two of them were quarreling, so he wanted to get out of the car to help Qu Shan, but then he thought about it. The person involved knew how embarrassing it would be if he met an acquaintance in this kind of thing, so it was better for him to have more to do than to have less to do. Thinking of this, he retracted his hand that had been on the door handle.
The next day, Dong Qiangqiang put the 12 notarized materials, copies of the matriculation diplomas stamped with the matriculation official seal, and the application forms for studying at 12 universities into 12 brown paper bags, and then affixed sufficient stamps. Then drive to the post office.
In order to prevent any eventuality, Dong Qiangqiang selected three universities in the eastern region as a guarantee, namely the University of Berlin, the University of Leipzig and the Technical University of Dresden. The remaining nine are located in northern, central and southern Germany, including both The two schools recommended by Tong Lele also include other universities with relatively strong economic majors, such as the University of Bonn, the University of Freiburg, the University of Frankfurt, the University of Mannheim, etc.
When the car drove outside the post office, a rain cloud came from the sky and stopped right above the post office to rain.
Based on Dong Qiangqiang's experience, summer rain in Hannover usually comes and goes quickly, and usually stops in less than 10 minutes. Therefore, although he did not bring any rain gear, he was not in a hurry. Anyway, it was still early for the post office to close. If you wait patiently for a few minutes, the rain might stop.
The clouds flicker in and out, and occasionally a white light appears and disappears. The light and shadow change unpredictably, and thunder can be heard after a while.
Dong Qiangqiang lowered the back of his chair slightly, trying to relax himself and let his thoughts spread freely like rainwater pushed away by a wiper.
The German DAX30 index has dropped from 4100 points at the beginning of the year to around 3200 points in July, an alarming drop. If the DAX index falls further in the future, perhaps he and Duanmu should consider adding more funds to purchase put options on the index. Of course, as Europe's top three important indexes, the French market index must also buy some more put options. The only question is, will the market of these two countries have more room to fall in the future? Or one should ask, will Germany's economy get worse in the second half of the year?
This question is actually asking, will the U.S. economy get worse?
He thought carefully about it in his mind, and the U.S. financial market in the past two years can be described as horrific: in early 2001, the Internet industry bubble burst, and Nasdaq, which had many new Internet companies, collapsed directly, giving the U.S. economy a blow. one strike. Before a group of investors could wake up from the blow, they were hit by 911, the second blow. With the aftermath of 9/11 still lingering, Enron's fraud came to light, kicking off a series of scandals for U.S. stock companies. From 2002 to the present, the frenzy of fraud and exposure has swept the entire U.S. stock market. From then on, the three major U.S. stock indexes have never had peace. This is the ultimate blow.
It fits the lyrics: before one wave subsides, another wave comes to attack.
Under this situation, the so-called economic recession is actually tantamount to an economic crisis.
The prediction of economic recovery given by Wall Street is 2-3 years. Of course, this is based on existing data and will be dynamically adjusted in the future.
The implication is that the second half of the year may be even worse.
Europe, across the ocean from the United States, is fully vigilant and guarding against the negative impact of the U.S. economic crisis. However, global economic integration has made every country no longer an isolated island, so it is only a matter of time before it spreads to the European continent.
As the largest economy in Europe, Germany exports automobiles, machinery, chemicals, medicines, metals and other commodities to the world all year round, and the United States is its largest export partner.
When its largest export partner weakens, Germany's economic data also begins to look unsatisfactory.
Since Germany has been resolutely following the path of industrialization after the war and did not fully cultivate and support Internet companies like the United States in the 1990s, stubborn Germans firmly believe that the German economy does not have as many bubbles as the United States, nor does it have financial fraud. Germany, an industrial-dominated country, has only encountered an economic downturn, far from a recession or even an economic crisis. It is not the same as some small countries near the Mediterranean.
Having said that, the Germans also know very well that they did not fall into an economic recession immediately because their families are rich. As time goes by, no one can guarantee that Germany will not be dragged into the quagmire by the United States.
The United States is acting more and more like an old horse stuck in a quagmire. Although it keeps trying hard to get out, the mud pulling it to the bottom of the pit is too strong, and the edges of the mud pit are slippery and cannot use force. It is not easy to leave. thing.
With lessons learned from the past, various departments in Germany have tried their best to stimulate the economy, but the most important financial sector has been unable to achieve much in the short term.
Due to the official use of the euro, the German central bank, the Deutsche Bundesbank, no longer has the right to mint money. The right to mint money has been firmly controlled by the European Central Bank. Although the European Central Bank is headquartered in Frankfurt, it uses the method of issuing additional currency, that is, "helicopter money" Stimulating the economy is not in line with the consistent style of the European Central Bank and the Germans. The managers of the European Central Bank believe that neither economic recession nor economic recovery can happen overnight. There must be a cause and an effect. Before the real cause is found, one should not blindly start with the amount of money.
If the European Central Bank does not intervene, it means that the economic recession may be widespread for a long time, and every country in Europe will inevitably take strict precautions to prevent its own economic recession from turning into a complete economic crisis.
Dong Qiangqiang has studied Western economics and knows that there are many indicators to measure economic recession, such as the level of economic vitality, the increase or decrease in the number of unemployed people, the degree of deflation, etc.
In order to study waste treatment, he paid to become a member of the Lower Saxony Environmental Protection Industry Association. Judging from the information that the association regularly receives, the number of environmental protection companies that went bankrupt in Lower Saxony this year is zero, and there are also many newly established environmental protection companies that have joined the association. Although new companies are generally small in scale, their level of activity is not low. At the same time, Dong Qiangqiang rarely hears that they cannot apply for bank loans or government subsidies. If we can see through the lens, the economic vitality of German small and medium-sized enterprises does not seem to have been much affected by the United States.
When it comes to the changes in the number of unemployed people, Dong Qiangqiang has even more feelings. Whenever he passes by the door of the labor bureau or different job agencies, he can always see a queue of job seekers lined up outside the door. In addition to foreigners of different skin colors, there are also well-dressed Germans carrying briefcases. Before going abroad, he thought that Germans would not be unemployed.
As for prices, from January to July, various commodities in German supermarkets have always been in abundant supply, and the price level has remained stable for a long time. A certain brand of fresh milk that Dong Qiangqiang has been drinking for a long time is always 1.99 euros/barrel. Changes in the price of gasoline or diesel The magnitude is smaller. The European Central Bank has not announced any additional currency issuance, and there are no signs of inflation or deflation in the market.
Although his personal observations are contrary to the German economic data, and it seems difficult to judge whether the market outlook will rebound or plummet at a glance, his intuition tells him that the DAX index will continue to fall.
He had a vague feeling that the biggest gain he got from this economic crisis was not a monetary return, but a basic common sense in investment: once a similar economic crisis occurs again, he must buy the bearish index as soon as possible. options.
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