"How does it feel? Does it feel like winning the lottery? It's so exciting."
"I've never bought anything, let alone won, so I don't know what it feels like. Besides, you don't really think it's because of what I wrote, right?" Dong Qiangqiang said half-jokingly, half-seriously, "And I'm a newbie, so I'm just squatting. After guarding the gate for a few days and guarding it for two nights, I won the bid. Isn’t this accuracy too high?”
"Then, buddy, you really think too much. What I actually want to say is, it doesn't matter whether it's bad luck or whether a blind cat encounters a dead mouse. What's important is that this group of salty hairtail fish finally caught up with us. "Duanmu sighed after finishing speaking, "At least it makes more money than Xerox and WorldCom in the United States."
At the end of June, two listed companies that had been rumored to be suspected of financial fraud, WorldCom and Xerox, formally admitted to financial fraud. Especially the latter, which was said to have falsely reported profits of nearly US$6 billion in five years. After the official announcement, the market was in a state of confusion. Uproar. Although Duanmu also bought put options on these two stocks, because the purchase time was too late, there was not much profit left.
"I still can't open the page here." Seeing that the page was still blank, Dong Qiangqiang frustratedly clicked the "refresh" button on the browser a few more times, "How do you write the news?"
"The reporter of "Le Monde" said that he received a report from an informant that the Vivendi Group was suspected of falsely reporting its income, but the specific details were not disclosed too much. I wonder if the police asked not to disclose the details, so everyone does not know what the problem is. Is there a problem with the garbage disposal business, other businesses, or all businesses? Maybe the reason you analyzed is indeed one of them."
"Informant report?" Dong Qiangqiang's heart clicked unconsciously.
"Do you also think it's strange or too coincidental? To be honest, when I read this news, I also doubted whether the informants it mentioned were some or all of the resigned employees we have met before. ? We paid them informant fees at the time, but if we couldn’t keep them in full, some guy got hot-headed and went to the newspaper office again, sold the information intact again, or revealed more information. This possibility is also possible. The newspaper directly This suspicion of fraud is linked to the Enron incident in the United States. Although it is not directly said that Vivendi is the 'European version of Enron', the meaning between the lines cannot be more obvious. The French can read the insinuation no matter how stupid they are. Meaning. And the timing of this post is also very coincidental. After the newspaper published the first post, Prestige was downgraded by Moody's, the international rating company, saying that it sold the subsidiary because it was heavily in debt and needed to survive, and its credit rating was worrying. , reminding investors that its company's credit has been downgraded by one notch from before, and the bonds it has issued are also close to junk bonds. The downgrade and suspected fraud are the main reasons that caused Vivendi's stock to be sold off in the market today, but you You know that I never believe in coincidences in the financial field, I think they are all arranged..."
Duanmu was still talking to himself, and the browser page finally popped up. At a glance, Dong Qiangqiang saw a K-line as steep as a cliff standing on the screen at an angle of nearly 80 degrees, which was shocking.
"You are talking about a conspiracy theory." Dong Qiangqiang asked while clicking on more news, "Then how did Vivendi reply to it? It should deny the report, right?"
"It must be denied, and it must be denied at the first time. But you remember what I said before, stocks are actually an expectation. When "Le Monde" buried the words "Vivendi fraud" and "Vivendi fraud" in the hearts of all skeptical investors, When the seeds of 'European Enron' are planted, panic will water them like water, and then the seeds will naturally break out of the ground and thrive. Of course, this is only the first wave of dominoes."
"The first wave? How to say?"
"Vivendi is a French blue-chip stock. When it fell like this, the Paris CAC 40 index was also pulled down. Many bank stocks that do business with it also fell at the same time, so I said... holy shit..."
"What's wrong?" Dong Qiangqiang was startled by Duanmu's sudden foul language.
"The news said...the president of Vivendi Group just announced his resignation."
"So fast?"
"It is true that they are not as efficient as the French, but Vivendi's stock price has dropped from 60 euros at the beginning of the year to 18.5 now, a drop of almost 70%. I suspect that the company has long had the idea of replacement, but is just waiting for the right time to scapegoat Throw it out to appease the anger of investors, and the successor should have been decided a long time ago. Alas, I bought it late and bought too little, I still don’t have enough courage." Duanmu sighed melancholy, "If we had bought it at the beginning of the year, we would have bought it now After getting rich, I still realized later that I should have paid attention to Arthur Andersen's customer line earlier. It's a pity, it's a pity..." Duanmu even said two "pity" words to express his regret.
"You are thinking in the rearview mirror. It is meaningless to be wise after the fact. Who could have guessed this result before? The focus now is not to regret the beginning, but what to do next. If it continues to plummet this week, how much will it fall? Are you going to sell it?" Dong Qiangqiang asked with concern, "If other options encounter similar situations later, you will encounter the same problem. After all, stop-profit and stop-loss are both important."
"You reminded me well," Duanmu agreed, "Then what suggestions do you have?"
"There are only two possibilities for Vivendi, either the company has solid evidence of fraud and delists and files for bankruptcy, or it bottoms out." Dong Qiangqiang thought for a while, "The cost of our put options corresponds to a stock price of almost 30 euros, and now it is almost 18. It is estimated that the panic in the market will not be digested for a while, so I think there should be no problem around 15. At that time, the options in our hands can have a profit of hundreds of thousands or even hundreds of thousands of euros. If we are lucky, we can It just released its second quarterly report, and it might fall below 10 euros. Of course, we can’t expect to sell it just when its stock price is the lowest and the put option price is the highest. That’s unrealistic, so I think anything between 10 and 15 euros is fine. Consider shipping. Of course, if you are worried that the options will continue to rise after selling, we can also sell them in batches to see the market outlook. If the options are sold out and there is no better short-selling target in the short term, and Vivendi has not delisted, then we You can consider investing less in Vivendi stocks and wait until the end of the year to see what you think."
Dong Qiangqiang's analysis was very clear and logical. Duanmu listened very carefully. After another half a minute passed before Dong Qiangqiang finished speaking, he said quietly: "Let me think about it carefully."
Dong Qiangqiang was not surprised that Duanmu did not agree readily. He knew that Duanmu would definitely be entangled, and this kind of decision would be difficult for anyone to make.
At four o'clock in the afternoon, Lao Bai and the other three were tired and tired, pulling their suitcases out of the Hannover train station.
Along the way, Lao Bai and Lele talked and laughed, but Lei Lanting looked depressed and listless.
Six o'clock in the evening, Big Beef Bones Restaurant.
Since there was an exam the next day, Wang Shunan declined the invitation to a dinner party, and Dong Yiqing had to go out to work. In the end, only He Yuanjin came as promised.
Listening to several people chatting with each other about the interesting things they experienced during their trip to Japan, Dong Qiangqiang became distracted without realizing it, and all he could think of was Prestige.
Seeing Dong Qiangqiang's silence, Lao Bai advised him thoughtfully: "You have an exam tomorrow, so go back first and we'll stay for a while."
Dong Qiangqiang put the car key on the table and pushed it to him: "Then you will drive them later, and I will leave first. You can give me the key when you come back in the evening."
Lao Bai sent Dong Qiangqiang outside the restaurant: "Old Dong, the World Cup team is very rich. We will definitely make a lot of money playing at home in 2006. Of course, we have to plan the route in advance."
Lao Bai didn't mention Xu Tongying's matter all night. Dong Qiangqiang guessed that he might talk about it when he sent him out. As expected, Lao Bai went straight to the topic.
"I talked with Xu and hoped to work together as soon as possible. She promised to give me a tour in mid-July. You will have graduated by then, so it shouldn't be a problem to take a trip, right?"
"no problem."
"If we cooperate, a new company will be established in China. Has she told you?"
Dong Qiangqiang nodded.
"What do you think?"
"I have no objection, just listen to Party A's request."
"I'm asking you what you think about the shareholder structure of the new company." Lao Bai didn't mince words.
"I haven't thought about it." Dong Qiangqiang said honestly, "I have been busy with exams recently."
"I have an idea. You and Lele each have 33.3%, and I have 33.4%, which is exactly one hundred."
As soon as these words came out, Dong Qiangqiang immediately realized that the shareholder structure of the new company was indeed different from that of Lao Bai's German company. Lao Bai was the absolute majority shareholder in the German company. Dong Qiangqiang did not expect that Tong Lele would have one-third of the shares in the new company. It seemed that Lao Bai valued her very much.
Sensing that Dong Qiangqiang might have an idea, Lao Bai smiled slightly, put his hand on his shoulder and patted him gently: "You should consider getting back to me as soon as possible. Sign up early and get settled early. Xu Tongying values efficiency very much."
The tram carried Dong Qiangqiang forward slowly and slowly. He leaned his head against the window, thinking of Lao Bai's suggestion and Lei Lanting's interesting expression. A vague idea came to his mind, but he didn't wait. He outlined this vague idea clearly, and the silver-haired old woman sitting opposite him pointed to his pocket and reminded: "Young man, your cell phone is ringing."
There was a German phone number on the screen that he had never seen before. Dong Qiangqiang thought for two seconds before picking it up. He asked in German: "Hello?"
"Me." A cheerful male voice came from the other side.
"Are you...Li Lei?" Dong Qiangqiang didn't respond.
"Hehe, okay, you haven't forgotten my voice. Since you haven't forgotten, then come over and pick it up..."
"What?" Dong Qiangqiang was confused.
"Pick me up."
Dong Qiangqiang was even more confused: "Pick you up? Where are you?"
"Where else could it be? Of course it's the train station. I've arrived at your Hannover train station...I'm...wait for me to take a look...C7, yes, it's platform C7. Come over quickly."
"Have you arrived in Hannover?" Dong Qiangqiang jumped up from his seat, flicking his flowing hair like a strong lion.
The old lady opposite was startled by his unexpected behavior and suspected that something was wrong with him. She quickly picked up her bag, stood up, and walked tremblingly towards the area where there were many Germans in the carriage. As she walked, she looked back at Dong Qiangqiang. .
Just as the tram was coming up from the underground, he subconsciously looked out the window. The scenery outside the window instantly changed from the gray and monotonous cement wall in the tunnel to a beautiful sunset oil painting in front of him.
The brilliant sunset has turned into a ball of dazzling golden light, as if it could ignite the earth at any time. The afterglow of the setting sun coated the buildings, trees, vegetation and vehicles on both sides of the road with a thin layer of gold. The late bird soars low in the sky, making regular and sharp calls, but disappears without a trace in the blink of an eye. There were no pedestrians or cars on the road, and everything was quiet and peaceful. And there was no other sound in his ears except the "rumble" of the wheels and rails.
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