In fact, there is no need for Dong Qiangqiang to persuade Duanmu to be clear in his heart. No matter whether the other party admits or denies it, it will not change the result, because he, Dong Qiangqiang and Chan Chan are all vulnerable groups when facing the wealthy Anderson.
The day to decide whether he could make a lot of money at the end of the year was imminent, and he really didn't have time to dwell on it.
Change what can be changed and accept what cannot be changed. This is the way adults should deal with things.
Moreover, although I suffered a loss due to mistakes, my lack of experience is not a particularly big sin. You always have to pay some tuition fees by yourself, and you always have to jump through some pitfalls by yourself. Even your parents may not be able to teach you everything step by step.
What's more, once Chanchan releases a short-selling report, he will have to ask Anderson to help find people and institutions to promote it. If he is one of the beneficiaries, he will definitely be more interested. Ah Q thought to himself that the current situation was not the worst.
"Thankfully, I have you this time," Duanmu praised happily and immediately changed the subject, "I plan to short 10 or more companies, what do you think?"
"So many?" Dong Qiangqiang was really surprised by Duanmu's number. "I remember last time you said you wanted to look at 10 to 15 companies and choose 6 to 8 from them. But now you say you want to do 10 companies. Which sentence is that? real?"
"This moment is another moment." Duanmu shrugged, "Everything is changing dynamically."
"But this is a lot more than what was said before. So how much material do we have to read? And even if we can read the material, it will be too late to do the final adjustment..."
"Last time I said that because I wanted to buy 100,000 euro put options for each of the 10 problematic companies, but now I feel that this is not stable enough. I want to buy companies that have rumors or any trouble in the market. Active positions and passive positions, while controlling the limit of a single transaction."
Dong Qiangqiang had never heard these two words before: "What do these two warehouses mean?"
"Active positions are companies that we have personally researched, and passive positions are companies that we have never conducted research on but have been shorted by other well-known institutions on the market."
"Is this...reliable?" Dong Qiangqiang questioned.
"Our time and experience are too limited, so we might as well follow those well-known short-selling institutions. For example, United Capital, which is suspected of financial fraud and fictitious profits by Einhoff, the boss of Greenlight Capital, we can follow 30,000. Boss It is a real short sale, so we will stock up on put options. If they are counterattacked by the bulls, we will wait and see from the other side. Even if we lose 30,000, our loss will be within an acceptable range. But if they win, then we will If we win, maybe 30,000 euros will become 300,000 euros. In the meantime, we can also use the popularity and investment halo of these well-known institutions in the report to put money on our faces. After all, we are a small fund and cannot waste this easily. There’s a chance to gain and do no harm. Do you know what I mean?”
"Just choose companies that are shorted by well-known funds and small orders. You know, you have a big chance of winning." Although Duanmu has endless ideas, Dong Qiangqiang has no objection. He has long seen that every time Duanmu adjusts his investment strategy, he is considering the risks and benefits. Find a delicate balance between them.
"In the passive warehouse, we focus on weight. Just invest 20,000 to 30,000 per person. The more the better. In the active warehouse, we focus on quality, and bet 50,000 to 100,000 on a few big players. I believe that under this situation, such a combination will not result in nothing at the end of the year. ." Duanmu's face was full of determination.
"According to your investment method, many companies can be considered. Recently, newspapers have been discussing that not only the aviation industry was hit hard by 911, but also Munich Re, Swiss Re and Lloyd's of London insurance platform. These three companies Although the money to be paid to the victims is a one-time payment, the money to be paid to the injured is increasing every year, and the condition of many injured people will continue to get worse every year, which means that the money to be paid by the insurance company will continue to increase. There is no end. As a result, the three major international credit rating agencies have lowered the credit ratings of Munich Re and Swiss Re, and the capital market has also lowered their profit expectations for this year..." As he spoke, Dong Qiangqiang suddenly flashed in front of his eyes. The figure running towards the distance went from clear to blurry. He was stunned there, with his mouth half open, but unable to speak a single word.
"That's what I mean!" Duanmu was very satisfied with Dong Qiangqiang's point of view, but he didn't notice the strange look on his face. "I have been paying attention to Mu Zai. Its stock price was the lowest when 911, and it bounced back to 300 at the beginning of the year. Now it is back to 300. It fell to around 250, which is only less than 10 euros higher than when 911. According to what you just said, we can really try to invest some, or even invest more. What do you think of 50,000 euros?" Duanmu stared at the ground and pondered. Bian asked.
A plane flew across the blue sky, and Dong Qiangqiang stared at the fuselage in a daze.
"Old Dong? I'm asking you something, what do you think?" Duanmu didn't get a reply, so he couldn't help but raise his head and ask again.
"Ah? What?" Dong Qiang Qiang woke up from a dream.
"What do you think about the investment of 50,000 yuan by Mu Zai and Rui Zai's family?"
"It feels like a bit much... maybe 30,000 yuan per family."
"I will implement this on Monday. Is there anything like this?"
"In addition to companies whose profits are definitely expected to fall, I suggest you also pay attention to the German blue chip index DAX30."
"Oh. What do you say?" Duanmu's eyes lit up. He liked chatting with Dong Qiangqiang more and more, because every time he would get something unexpected.
"Data from the German Federal Statistics Office show that the total output of German industry, construction and energy companies in the first four months of this year fell by nearly 18% year-on-year, the largest decline in the past three years. At the same time, the German Federal Ministry of Economics also stated that although the German economy is in There were signs of recovery in March, but the data in the manufacturing industry, automobile industry, and export industry were still not ideal, and the unemployment rate in April showed signs of increasing. These economic indicators are important to the German capital market. In addition, global stock markets are affected by U.S. stocks. The trend of the German DAX index in the last half year is exactly the same as that of the Dow Jones. It is like stepping on the road, and at the same time it has a certain lag. Now the Dow Jones, S&P and Nasdaq are all plummeting, and the German economy is affected by globalization and global integration. It is difficult to be immune to the impact of one's own development, and the result is very likely to be..." Dong Qiangqiang spread his hands.
"Will the DAX30 index plummet along with the US stock market?" Duanmu couldn't wait to complete Dong Qiangqiang's words.
"No one can be sure it will fall, but I think it deserves our attention. You can also find out what the current price of put options on the Dow Jones Index, Nasdaq Index and DAX30 Index is on the market. If their prices They are all up, which means that there may not be a few institutions that hold a bearish view on the U.S. stock market and the German stock market.”
Duanmu pondered for a moment: "Let's put this aside for now. I will check the data and then reply to you. Did you contact the lawyer I mentioned last time? What did he say?"
"Lawyer Frederick said that he needs to communicate clearly with you before he can decide whether to accept our company's contract, but I have to say ugly things up front, he is not cheap."
"Good lawyers are not cheap." Duanmu waved his hand, "As long as you have the ability. Let's go and eat."
The two reviewed the breakfast menu again at the train station. Duanmu once again expressed his confidence in Dong Qiangqiang, and at the same time urged him to complete the third draft of the Vivendi short-selling report as soon as possible, and not to forget to regularly attend environmental protection meetings.
After the meal, the two went their separate ways. Dong Qiangqiang returned north to Hannover, while Duanmu continued to investigate the German representative offices of Southern Health Company in his hands and several other US-listed companies.
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