On the fourth day in Paris, at 22:43 in the evening, Duanmu's profile picture lit up again on MSN.
"Why weren't you online last night?" Duanmu asked on the other end of MSN, "You can't get through on the phone."
"I spent the whole night squatting outside the garbage factory last night." Dong Qiangqiang typed on the keyboard. "That place is too remote and the mobile phone signal is not good."
"How's it going? Have you gained anything in the past few days?" Duanmu immediately replied after asking, "I'm making good progress here, but it may take a week to extend before I can go back."
"On the first day of guarding the garbage plant, four cars went in and two cars came out. I didn't look at it at night. On the second day, five cars went in and four cars came out all day long. No more cars went out or came out all night. Tonight at 7:30 I Before leaving, three went in and three came out. I even followed the last garbage truck back to its company before it was discovered."
"Then there aren't many cars. Are you sure there is only one door to the garbage dump?" Duanmu reminded, "Will you miss the car going out the back door?"
"The garbage plant has front and rear doors, but the back door is for cars," Dong Qiangqiang replied confidently, "I'm afraid there are no cars in the world that transport garbage, right? And even if they are cars, I have counted them. . Cars must also be driven off the road in front of the garbage plant."
"But Vivendi should be more than just this garbage treatment plant, right?" Duanmu asked suspiciously.
"Yes, but the most important garbage plant in Paris is the one I sent you. It covers the largest area and is the most famous. I haven't visited the other ones yet." Dong Qiangqiang admitted, "What I think is, if it is the most important If there is a problem with this one, then no matter whether there are problems with other garbage plants, there will probably be a question mark on this part of its financial data. Of course, I will definitely visit its other garbage plants as soon as possible."
"Well, I understand what you mean." Duanmu typed quickly, "Is the garbage truck going through the gate the one in the photo you sent me?"
"Yes, I have checked on the Internet. The ones photographed in the past few days are all garbage removal trucks from the German FAUN company. They have a load capacity of 8 tons and a steerable tail axle. They are suitable for narrow French streets. By the way, this For a few days, all the cars coming in and out were old cars, not new cars.”
"So according to your calculation," Duanmu concluded, "we haven't processed much garbage in the past few days."
"According to the company's unaudited financial reports for the first four quarters disclosed in 2001, the total amount of garbage treatment in 2001 increased significantly compared with 2000, and the profits were considerable. I compared its performance with other listed garbage companies I could find. , found something interesting.”
"What's the matter?" Duanmu was aroused by Dong Qiangqiang's words.
"The performance of many companies engaged in waste treatment in France in 2001 was not good, and most of them were declining. If they could barely maintain their income, they were considered to be doing well. Only this company's revenue and profits did not fall but increased. In other words, it It is the absolute leader and number one in this industry. If this is the case, then it should have a lot of garbage trucks every day. How can it only have so few trucks every day? This really doesn’t make sense.”
"Time. Does it have something to do with time?" Duanmu inspired, "The garbage business in the second quarter of every year is less than in other quarters."
"The garbage disposal figures in the company's second quarter report of 2001 were higher than those in the first quarter of that year. Moreover, Paris is one of the top five international tourist cities, and Easter has just passed. There are many people, cars, and consumption, so the amount of garbage in daily life is reasonable. It should be no less, not to mention that after 9/11, there were many more people traveling to Paris than in previous years." Dong Qiangqiang recalled Lao Bai's previous analysis and continued to explain, "I also looked for the 2001 major French cities published by the French Statistics Office. In terms of the amount of domestic waste per capita, the amount of domestic waste per capita in Paris has been stable at the first place all year round, much higher than Marseille, which ranks second.”
"So based on the above information, you suspect that the company committed financial fraud in the waste disposal department in 2001? Right?"
"First of all, there are few trains, and then there is a limited carrying capacity of each vehicle. These are all different from what it disclosed last year." Dong Qiangqiang took a sip of coffee, "Of course I know that my observation sample is too small. To put it mildly, it is a simple inference. It sounds like a subjective conjecture, it is unprofessional and meaningless, and it is very likely that the conclusion drawn is wrong."
"So?" Duanmu asked deliberately.
"So I won't be standing guard at the door of this garbage factory in the next few days. I plan to visit several other garbage plants. In addition, I will go to its customers to get a feel for it. I saw several customers disclosed in the quarterly report. , I searched a few more from the Internet, and I also made a note of the one I followed today. I will run there in the next two days to see if I am just dreaming or if I am just mistaken."
"Hehe, you finally came to the right place." Duanmu praised, "I really saw the right person."
Duanmu's praise was very helpful to Dong Qiangqiang. He said humbly: "I found several foreign financial websites on the Internet, which have very detailed due diligence templates and due diligence ideas, which can be downloaded for free. I roughly went through it. I may not be able to use many of the methods included this time. For example, people say that you can go to the company to directly check the account books, original vouchers, original contracts, or directly communicate with the person in charge of the relevant business department, etc., but I can't do any of these. However, some of the methods mentioned there overlap with the documents you gave me, and we can learn from them.”
"Those standardized due diligence templates are basically prepared for accountants, auditors, credit raters or investment banking professionals. The treatment they get when they go to companies is very different from what we get when we go to companies, and the information they get is definitely inferior. It's useless if you copy it further." Duanmu made a sighing face in the dialog box.
"I know, but that's not what I'm worried about." Dong Qiangqiang wrote.嘘戅gnaws the book home k&#戅
Duanmu put a question mark under Dong Qiangqiang's words.
“First, even if I can prove that its garbage disposal data this year is problematic, I cannot prove that its data last year is problematic. Second, I don’t know how it will disclose its 2002 garbage disposal data next year. Can we just wait until it discloses its annual report next year before shorting it? But that’s too late, right? We can only make this year’s profit by betting on Blacksburg’s performance.”
"You don't have to wait until next year. Its second quarter report should be released in early July this year. As long as we can collect as much evidence as possible about its suspected fraud before it discloses the data. It will release the second quarter report first, and we will do it later. Issue a short-selling report. It is true that you cannot prove that there is a problem with the company's data last year, but the current financial market is in turmoil, and everyone in listed companies is in danger. There are not even a hundred but fifty companies that have been targeted because of suspicions of financial fraud. At this time, it is no longer important what the truth is, what is important is that we can come up with a weighty question at the right time, and that is enough."
"I understand what you are saying, but the quarterly reports are all unaudited data. The company can find excuses to revise the data that we have questioned afterwards. What should we do then?" Dong Qiangqiang asked, "Isn't that just a bamboo basket? Is it all in vain to fetch water?"
"As long as our suspicions are well-founded and the evidence is available, we don't have to worry about it not falling." Dong Qiangqiang could feel Duanmu's pride through the computer screen, "We can either short it directly or buy it in the American style. Options, as long as they fall by a large enough margin, we will immediately cash out and make money. Your idea just now is very good, what should we do if the company re-revises the data. My idea is this, you go to the mall tomorrow and buy one of the options on the market. The best camera is the one that can take very clear pictures, and then take pictures of the garbage trucks entering and exiting the different garbage plants throughout the day. I'm afraid you won't be able to take pictures for a week, it may take a month or even longer. Once you take pictures of these Video, no matter how the company revise it afterwards, it can't erase these records of yours. So, old director, I'm afraid you have a lot to do next. I think your direction is fine, just go ahead and do it boldly!"
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