"My personal suggestion is that the best way to deal with this paper-cotton incident is to pretend not to have seen it," Chu He said.
"?" Li Shan and Zou Biao both opened their eyes in shock. They actually said "pretending not to see" such a big speculative event and financial crisis? !
"This..." Lishan said in surprise, "Such a big thing."
"I'm not being alarmist. In fact, this is also a common view in our financial circle." Chu He said and Ren Youzi nodded slightly.
"Cotton is a vital commodity for the people. This kind of behavior can be regarded as hoarding and disrupting the market. It can be regarded as an economic crime..."
"There is no problem with economic crime, but hoarding is not really a problem." Chu He said, "And the risk is relatively not as big as you think."
Paper cotton is not hoarded, unlike the "two white and one black" campaign in Shanghai in the early days of liberation. There is no problem with the spot circulation of cotton on the market. It is just that the price is high and cotton is scarce. However, there is no hoarding. The main problem of paper cotton is disorderly speculation.
"Secondly, the key to the high risk of futures is not to sell the delivery certificate, but that the delivery certificate is a margin transaction, which means that extremely high leverage can be pulled in the trading center; Guangzhou Paper Cotton does not engage in margin trading now. It adopts the full cash buying and selling stack model, so there is no high-risk leverage trading problem; thirdly, the general contemporary futures operation actually allows risk hedging. You can't only buy high, but also allow short buying. .You must have both long and short positions in order to hedge..."
Seeing that the two people opposite him looked confused, Chu He gave up further explanation and directly concluded: "Anyway, you just need to know that this paper cotton will not cause a serious financial crisis. Many people's It is certain that wealth will be washed away, but it will only be limited to themselves and the people around them. It will not have a big impact on the financial market as a whole. At this point, it has to be said that the traditional strict borrowing system also restricts the crisis expanded."
"You mean, there won't be turmoil this time?"
"There will definitely be turmoil, but it won't be big. It won't affect social stability. You can rest assured on this." Chu He said, "According to our estimates, the amount involved in this paper and cotton speculation will not exceed fifteen Ten thousand yuan. According to the overall scale of the entire cotton textile market, it is not very large."
"One hundred and fifty thousand yuan, which is already astonishing!" Zou Biao said, "Many people in this city earn only two yuan a month!"
"People who earn two yuan a month don't have the capital to participate in this kind of game. Those who can participate can at least have hundreds of yuan at home - especially in the past month, it is rare for a warehouse order to have a low price. It’s less than fifty yuan.”
Fifty yuan is a lot of money for not only ordinary citizens and villagers in Guangzhou, but also medium-sized naturalized cadres. The scale of this hype is actually quite impressive.
"Having said that, the scale of the hype this time is already quite big. I think we should have a national reserve system in the city to reduce the risk of such things happening in the future..." Zou Biao said that in the 18th century, cotton cloth was definitely considered important. The status of strategic materials may be second only to food, but not inferior to coal and iron resources. To deal with the abnormal price fluctuations of such strategic materials, the country's establishment of strategic reserves is the most effective means. On the one hand, the country itself has sufficient demand for strategic resources and can spread the warehousing, labor and management costs of establishing a state reserve. Secondly, maintaining stable prices of strategic materials is also an objective need to maintain social stability.
"...The establishment of the State Reserve is very reasonable in terms of both political and economic accounts. As for this paper and cotton crisis, when the market collapses, the State Reserve will not suffer economic losses if it makes large-scale acquisitions, because in the long run Cotton will still rise, and the State Reserve will be able to release it to the market at a small premium or at a par price."
Li Shan looked at the expressions of Chu He and Ren Youzi. They both listened attentively and nodded slightly from time to time. However, judging from their subtle expressions, they were completely "disapproving" of Zou Biao's statement.
"The national reserve system for important materials is of course very reasonable, but to be honest now it is not necessary, and it will not solve any problems." Chu He said, "It may even cause other problems."
"Why?!"
"First of all, this paper and cotton crisis does not affect the supply. We have just said this: it is just a primitive and crude futures, and hoarding is not a thing. The establishment of a state reserve is of course an effective means of regulating market order. But the premise is We need to have a supply. If the supply is just enough for production, how can we reserve it. Therefore, expanding the supply of cotton is much more important than storing cotton. After having a stable supply, the amount of remaining cotton on the market can support the reserve, and then the country can Storage can be discussed. Currently, shipping capacity in Southeast Asia, India, and Northeast Asia is limited. Strictly speaking, these places have not formed professional cotton cultivation. The planting area and output of cotton are unknown, and there is no stable cotton supply. , so it is difficult for the state reserve to take shape in the short term. Moreover, once the state reserve is established, it will be a huge team. Behind the storage, there will inevitably be huge losses, and a complete inventory and inventory check system must be established - forgive me. Frankly speaking, the current state-owned grain reserve system of the Senate is already beyond its capabilities. Let alone adding another cotton. I am afraid that when it comes to cotton and many commodities, we can only follow the market. After all, there was no big market in the 17th century, and there was also a lack of Large scale cash crop plantations and mining.”
Ren Youzi continued: "Why do we need the state reserve for everything? If the factory directly signs a long-term agreement or forward contract with the plantation, the fluctuations in the market should have almost no impact. During the economic upswing, the failure of some small businesses will have no impact. , someone will take over soon. If we must give everyone a means of speculation and hedging, then we still have to follow the path of formal futures contracts. To be honest, as far as the current situation is concerned, even the futures market cannot be said to be very big. Necessity.”
Chu He added: "At this stage, if we want to engage in futures, the main direction should be to agree on forward transaction prices for the purpose of physical delivery, rather than entering the futures trading market in one step. Leverage is something that will not be recognized by the outside world. If you take a big step, it will be easy to get involved." Eggs.”
Li Shan and Zou Biao were completely confused by the two people's talk, but they couldn't think of any specific rebuttal. After all, they are not here to debate.
"Okay, you have said so much. So what is the specific method of non-intervention?"
"First of all, the paper and cotton trade is banned. Then we check the warehouses currently on the market. There is no physical store or it is not in the floral cloth industry at all. It is purely a false warehouse. This is an economic fraud and will be treated as an economic fraud. If you buy this The person who deposited the bill belongs to the victim. After the criminal is caught, he will recover the stolen money and refund the amount in proportion. Of course, it is impossible to refund all the money, and it can only be regarded as a lesson learned to them."
Needless to say, regardless of whether the criminal can be caught or not, it is even more elusive to recover the stolen money in full. Li Shan smiled bitterly and said, "The tuition is expensive enough!"
"How can it be regarded as a lesson if it is not expensive?" Ren Youzi continued, "It is indeed a warehouse receipt issued by the flower and cloth shop, no matter what the final market situation is. They are the final acceptance subjects. They must accept it when it expires. If it cannot be redeemed, Treat it as bankruptcy. This is an economic dispute. Just hear the judgment according to the corresponding laws and regulations. Of course, we will give them an opportunity, that is, to negotiate with the warehouse receipt holder and recover the warehouse receipt at a certain price - this is It depends on how the specific negotiations between the two parties go."
"In the end, it was all in vain," Li Shan continued, "just another tuition fee."
"Of course, speculation is inherently risky." Chu He said, "In fact, paper cotton has neither a compliant issuer nor a margin system to guarantee delivery. It can be determined as fraud. But this problem is not A problem with futures is actually a serious lack of relevant laws and regulations in the entire corporate governance system and financial system."
He had been thinking about this issue for a long time, and now it made him think about it.
"For example, the corporate registration that is being promoted now. In fact, the contemporary limited liability company system is introduced, but there are no relevant corporate governance requirements. There are apparent agency problems, shareholder rights issues, bona fide third party issues, and equity transaction issues. They are all big problems. pit.
"Actually, it has nothing to do with the paper cotton itself. The main reason is that after financial risks began to emerge here, I suddenly felt that it was timely to reflect on the current corporatization reform in Guangzhou.
“The current corporatization reform, the so-called limited liability companies and religious legal persons, are actually very dangerous reforms in the current time and space.
“There are several fundamental issues that create huge risks.
"The first one is after a large number of commercial entities are legalized, especially the introduction of "limited liability", where is the supporting bankruptcy and liquidation system. After multiple shareholdings, without perfect commercial registration and data accumulation, How to penetrate the equity and how to find the actual controller. The related risks of money laundering, tax avoidance, and violations of laws and disciplines will rise sharply, especially if the bureaucrats use several layers of white gloves, through insider trading or simply turning public funds into private interests. , it will become very difficult to verify. Do you rely on the Steamed Bun Bureau to conduct internal investigations?
“The second one is the risk of lending in a time and space where the credit system is not perfect. If there is a mortgage, it is just repayment. What if companies guarantee each other and engage in loan fraud?
"Third, it is impossible to interoperate commercial registration data. Basically, it cannot be queried outside Guangzhou. What about the identity problem of commercial signing? How to solve the problem of apparent agency? You said that the official seal and signature are recognized, but this thing is in the Ming Dynasty The court can copy it at will, how to solve it. In ancient times, people were recognized when doing business, but now after legalization, how do you recognize the clerk and the account manager? "
(End of chapter)
