"Ren Yuan and I began to pay attention to this matter soon after the paper cotton first appeared. We also went to the original futures exchange, Qingyunlou Tea House. Speaking of which, Comrade Wu Mu also placed a few people in it. Personally - of course, he is not trying to prevent financial risks, he is simply worried about some conspiracy," Chuhe said.
"In general, there is nothing special about this matter. It can only be regarded as a bizarre product of the intertwining of market changes and human greed. It is very interesting and of great research value."
Li Shan was tired of hearing this and thought that your nonsense is over!
Chu He said that in fact, the signs of the paper cotton incident began much earlier than the opening of Wan Guo. The time point is at the beginning of this year.
"...In fact, the origin is very simple. The demand for cotton cloth increased, which caused the market price to rise. What followed was a series of chain reaction increases in cotton yarn and cotton."
Since the Senate regained Guangzhou, the demand for cotton cloth has been expanding year by year. With the successive occupation of Guangdong and Guangxi and the continuous establishment of political institutions, all kinds of northward migration and newly built government agencies and factories are expanding, and the naturalized class is also expanding rapidly. The demand for "uniforms" surged.
Originally, this increase in demand was relatively mild, but the emergence of Nanyang Company changed this phenomenon.
The largest project of the Nanyang Company is the South Vietnam Development Plan, for which the largest expeditionary operation since Operation Engine will be carried out. It is expected that more than 20,000 immigrants will be sent to South Vietnam, and an additional 10,000 people will immigrate each year for the next five years.
An immigration of this scale requires a massive amount of food and supplies. Especially the basic necessity cotton. Although Nanyang Company adopts the method of purchasing in small batches and multiple batches in order to avoid large-scale purchases that affect market stability, the market price of cotton cloth has risen in response, and it has increased from the beginning of the year to now.
To be honest, Li and Zou are so optimistic about the cotton textile industry, which is largely affected by this market trend.
"...This is the data from the "Business Monthly Report" published by the statistics department since October last year. We have transcribed the statistics related to the cotton textile industry - let me explain here, the relevant figures are not necessarily accurate, but they are approximate The situation can still be seen. The transaction volume of cotton yarn is too small and can be ignored, but the price and transaction volume of flowers and cloth are increasing month by month. This year the amplitude is even greater. If the average price in October last year is used as the base price, The monthly growth rate in November, December and January exceeded 5%. By February, it was completely out of control. The monthly growth rate of cotton cloth exceeded 7.5%. By March, it reached 10%. If Had it not been for the increase in Songjiang cotton imports, the increase in cotton prices would have been even greater - even so, compared with October last year, the average price of cotton prices in May this year has exceeded 50%. This is quite an astonishing figure.
The first reason is that Nanyang Company's overseas development steps have accelerated and it needs to reserve more clothing, tents and other cotton products; the second reason is that the Guangdong and Guangxi strategy has entered the final stage. The National Army, which was originally hastily organized, will be fully reorganized, and the Fubo Army will also need to be reorganized. Take a break. Their military uniforms must be updated, and these military supplies alone involve more than 100,000 sets of military uniforms.
In addition to the military, the Nanyang Company, and sporadic "government procurement," there was one key element: inflation.
Since the Senate issued new coins in Guangzhou, the amount of silver dollar certificates has continued to increase. The financial system maintains the basic credit of silver dollar bonds through various means, but inflation is not subject to human will. Social prices are rising quietly.
Fortunately, the necessities of life in this time and space are limited. Through the unique long-distance communication and transportation means in this time and space, the Senate can quickly grasp the food situation in various places and quickly stabilize the price of food, thus maintaining a stable situation.
"In this way, the surge in cotton products actually has a lot to do with inflation..."
"Yes, one reason is the contradiction between supply and demand, and the other is inflation." Ren Youzi nodded and said, "It can be said that the current market prosperity and high prices are actually false. As long as you read the relevant reports, you will know that currently The biggest customer in the market is the Senate itself. And this kind of bulk purchase will not last long. Nanyang Company has begun to reduce its purchase volume this month, and then Lianqin's purchase volume will also be reduced. In the long run, the cotton textile market There will be a period of decline. If we want to achieve new growth, I am afraid we can only find ways to export cotton cloth."
"Destroy Indian cloth and Songjiang cloth."
"That's right. In fact, the current cotton dilemma is precisely because these two giants are still very active and have cut off cotton from upstream." Chu He said, "Let's continue the topic."
Because the price of cotton cloth has risen, the price of cotton has also risen with it. There is a shortage of supply. Originally, it was the "Fabric and Cloth Company" that supplied cotton to the market. This "flower cloth" is not printed cloth, but means "cotton, cotton cloth". There is often a situation of "price but no market" in flower cloth shops, and the supply of cotton is intermittent. In order to ensure that their own machinists can weave cloth, some cloth shops began to pay in advance and purchase "warehouses".
At first, this kind of prepayment was just a "deposit" in business. The buyer paid a certain amount of deposit and bought a lot of cotton. After the arrival of the goods, the deposit will be deducted according to the market situation, and the final payment can be made after settlement and you can take delivery of the goods. It is nothing more than a commitment made by the buyer to ensure his supply of goods.
Gradually, some people began to see the speculative nature of it. As a result, the first full pre-order stack was released. The pre-purchase warehouse order does not settle the balance payment according to the price at the time of delivery, but directly pays the full amount in advance according to the current market situation, and then delivers the goods after the goods arrive.
This approach is essentially to avoid the risk of future price increases or supply cuts, and is a common practice in business. Not only the Dutch do this, but also the silkworm farmers in Jiangsu and Zhejiang areas also perform similar operations.
"Logically speaking, this is not a new thing. It is nothing more than betting on the rise and fall of expected future prices. But I don't know which smart person came up with a way to endorse the transfer." Chu He said with a smile, "This person I I really want to get to know him and ask him how he came up with it.”
Once transferable, this stack has the attributes of hype and speculation. In particular, the cotton market continues to increase. When it is rising steadily, I buy a warehouse order and resell it at a higher price. Make money right away.
Once such a short and quick way to make money is discovered, it immediately becomes the focus of speculation. All of a sudden, all the flower and fabric shops started selling warehouse receipts.
"At the beginning, the warehouse order was very standardized. It had clear issue numbers, delivery dates, quantity and grade of cotton to be delivered. Moreover, each floral cloth shop still had some 'predictions' when they found out, and they had a rough idea of their future. I had an idea of how much goods I could deliver, and the number of warehouse receipts I issued was still limited. But later, everyone became jealous of this costless transaction..."
Then it became more and more chaotic. Originally, only flower and cloth shops issued warehouse receipts. As the speculation became more and more intense, cloth shops, silk and satin shops, embroidery shops... as long as shops related to textiles rushed to issue cotton warehouse receipts. Later, cotton yarn warehouses appeared. one.
"... Now there are even people who just give it a name without even having a physical store. They claim to be XX Store or XX Bank, and issue the warehouse receipt themselves - and they can actually sell it like this. It reminds me of Hainan Island Ninety Years The real estate bubble of the 1990s. At that time, a land transfer contract could earn hundreds of thousands upon resale..."
"We'll talk about this later!" Li Shan began to lose his temper. These two people had such a clear grasp of the situation, but they actually stood by and watched until now? He couldn't blame them, "What should we do now?"
"Well, in short, the situation is getting worse," Chu He said. "All the participants have actually known by this time that the cotton they are buying and selling not only has nothing to do with cotton, nor even has anything to do with fabric. It is already pure It’s a speculative game, beating the drum and passing the flowers. However, everyone feels that they are not the last one.”
“Does the closure of Qingyun Tower mean that the bubble has burst?”
"It is indeed very possible," Ren Youzi nodded, "Although I don't know whether the owner of Qingyun Tower will open for business tomorrow or what the market situation of paper cotton will be, but its rupture is indeed close at hand."
The first reason is that the arrival of three ships of Indian cotton has directly contributed to the decline in cotton spot prices; the second is that new local cotton will be available in two or three months; the third is that the cotton harvest in the north, especially in the Jianghuai cotton-producing areas, is expected to be poor. Under the double blow of war and natural disasters, no one would grow cotton.
"It stands to reason that the expected sharp decrease in output in northern cotton-producing areas will further stimulate the rise in futures prices. But everyone knows that most of the cotton that can be delivered by indigenous fabric shops in the Guangzhou market comes from the Jianghuai cotton-producing area. If the local output decreases, This means that the flower and cloth shop cannot produce the goods for delivery at all - this is the last straw that breaks the camel's back." Ren Youzi said, "Although everyone among the speculators knows that what they are buying and selling is just a piece of paper, But after the illusory guarantee of 'future cotton' completely collapsed, market confidence has completely collapsed."
Chu He continued: "The boss of Qingyun Tower has made a lot of money in speculation. If he suddenly closes down, he probably realizes that the game is about to run out of business. But the specifics of this will depend on Comrade Wu Mu's investigation. result."
"so……"
"Yes, it's a bit redundant for you to ask Mu Min to send you the police. The Guangzhou political security has been paying attention to Qingyun Tower for a long time. He can't escape."
"That's good. What I'm most worried about is causing turmoil in the financial order." Li Shan breathed a sigh of relief, "However, whether it's the police or political security, after all, they can't control the financial order. You think this crisis should How to rectify it?"
