The beginning of the new year.
The people of Kaifeng Prefecture are still immersed in the joy of the New Year.
It happened that a new spring rain fell on the earth like sweet rain, making the people even more joyful.
On the day after the Qing Tang Dynasty was pacified, Han Jiang led hundreds of officials to congratulate him.
The Imperial Palace of the Emperor accepted the congratulations from all the officials, and the palace announced that Zhang Yue would become a bachelor of the Zizheng Palace, the founding Duke of Jian'an County, and the Minister of Rites; Zhang Yue would become a Privy Councilor, and sign a letter to the Privy Council to Beijing.
Escorted Ali Gu and more than 100 captured Qingtang leaders to Beijing.
Zhang Yue further awarded him a hundred taels of gold, a million coins, and a thousand pieces of silk for his success in deciding the policy.
Zhang Kai gave him fifty taels of gold, five hundred thousand coins, and five hundred pieces of silk.
As for the rewards for other meritorious soldiers, they will be announced in detail after discussion between the prime ministers of the two governments.
Officials are very generous in their actions, and they fully understand the principle that "a great reward means a great achievement".
In the Zizheng Hall.
After accepting the congratulations from the two governments, the officials summoned the prime ministers of the two governments and the Hanlin scholars to discuss matters.
Deputy Privy Envoy Zeng Xiaokuan said: "After His Majesty ordered his ministers to inform Li Qing, the Xixia envoy, about Ali Gu's arrival in Beijing, Li Qing was immediately frightened and his eyes were blank for a long time."
"Finally, I will tell your Majesty that I will return to Xixia tomorrow to resume my duties!"
The official laughed when he heard this and said: "Li Qing handed over his credentials more than ten years ago. He was so arrogant and arrogant. Now he is gone in embarrassment. I am really happy."
"Happy, happy!"
Feng Jing looked unhappy when he heard this.
Xue Xiang said: "Your Majesty, Xixia is now far from being as strong as it was when Li Yuanhao and Li Jiqian were in the past. In the past few decades, the Xixia king has carried out a lot of construction work and built the Huachi Hall. Its palaces are extremely prosperous, and the upper class of Xixia are extravagant and indulgent."
"In the past, the elite Bubazi and Tieyaozi were mostly wiped out in the battle of Taoshui, but now there is nothing to fear."
The official nodded when he heard this.
The Song army now had a strategic advantage over Xia for the first time.
Feng Jing said: "Your Majesty, if we attack Xia from the front of Hengshan Mountain, there is a vast sea of 700 miles. How can we get food?"
Zhang Dun said: "Your Majesty, I can give you food to the enemy."
Feng Jing scolded: "It's shameless to say that, how can a nomadic tribe collect food?"
Zhang Dun said with a sneer on his face: "The privy envoys don't know that the operation of the fourth generation of Xixia Jing can no longer be described as the four walls of a family. The two prefectures of Xingling are surrounded by the Yellow River, which diverts water to irrigate the fields. During Li Yuanhao's time, he also dredged the ancient canals and built There is the King Hao Canal, which irrigates one hundred thousand hectares of fertile land."
"There are more than a hundred grain cellars on Qiliping Mountain, the 'Yujiao' in Mingsha Prefecture stores millions of stones of rice, and the 'Liangtan City' to the north of Helan Mountain are all grain-gathering cities in the Western Xia Dynasty. How can we say there is no grain?"
The arrogance and arrogance in Zhang Dun's words made Feng Jing furious.
The officials were overjoyed and looked favorably on Zhang Dun.
Zhang Yue thought that the new party, headed by Lu Huiqing and Zhang Dunzhengyi, was planning to attack Xixia from Hengshan, but history proved that this road was unworkable.
Otherwise, Lu Huiqing would not change his tune in the future.
But now the officials, Lu Huiqing, Zhang Dun and others all believe that from the front of Hengshan, they are intoxicated in the dream of completing their achievements in one battle.
Zhang Dun said: "Your Majesty, I would like to recommend someone to your Majesty!"
"Sir, tell me?"
Zhang Dun said: "Wang Shao, the former deputy envoy of Xihe Road Economics, is outstanding in terms of military and courage!"
Zhang Yue heard this and realized that Wang Shao was at odds with him. He had suppressed him several times, but Zhang Dun still recommended him.
The official smiled when he heard this, glanced at His Highness Zhang Yue and said, "Wang Shao is a talented person, but he has committed a crime, so let's put it aside."
Zhang Dun still didn't know how to advance or retreat and said: "Your Majesty, the court now only promotes talents. How can we turn away the famous generals and good talents in the past?"
Zhang Dun repeatedly insisted and persuaded the officials to use Wang Shao. When the officials saw Zhang Dun acting like this, they smiled and said nothing.
Zhang Yueze said: "The imperial court has made a final decision on Wang Shao's matter, and there is no need for Hanlin scholars to say anything more."
Seeing this, Zhang Dun hesitated to speak. After some thought, he retreated to the class.
Seeing this scene, all the officials thought to themselves, maybe Zhang Dun is not afraid of the officials, but he is afraid of Zhang Yue. But if he was really afraid, how could he recommend Wang Shao? After all, even the officials did not dare to use Wang Shao because of Zhang Yue's face.
Han Jiang said: "Your Majesty, the Xihe Road Directorate cannot be vacant for one day. Now that Zhang Kai has returned to Beijing, I would like to ask Your Majesty to quickly select a candidate."
Zhang Yue immediately said: "Your Majesty, I will appoint you to act as the governor of the state. Longtuge will be appointed as the military envoy of Xihe Road as soon as the seal is made."
As soon as Zhang Yue said this, all the officials laughed in their hearts. Could it be that the three envoys passing through Xihe Road all had the surname Zhang.
Nowadays, the officials and soldiers on Xihe Road privately call Zhang Kai Xiaozhang Jinglue Xianggong to distinguish him from Zhang Yue.
If Zhang Zhi serves as the military envoy of Xihe Road again, what will he do? Not a small chapter?
Feng Jing came out and said, "Your Majesty, I think this is not possible."
The officials also wanted Xu Zhangzhi to serve as the military envoy of Xihe Road at a young age, but after hearing what Feng Jing said, they asked, "Why did you say this?"
Feng Jing made a speech in the palace: "Your Majesty, now that the Qing Tang Dynasty has surrendered, it is time to stop the military and rectify the people's livelihood. Whether we attack Xia from Xihe Road or attack Xia from Hengshan, the chance of winning is only 10 to 20%. "
"Every plan will fail!"
Zhang Yue looked sideways at Feng Jing. Feng Jing was a smart man. The three Xihe Road envoys all returned to the Zhang family, which meant that Zhang Yue still had to control Xihe Road to manage Xixia in the future.
But it was the officials who were even more unhappy.
The official said: "Lu Huiqing, the magistrate of Yanzhou, said that now that the Qing and Tang Dynasties have surrendered, troops and horses along this road will contain Xingling and the Xia army on the front line of Liangzhou. If our army advances from the front of Hengshan, the chance of victory is more than 90%. How can you say one or two percent?"
Feng Jing asked in the palace: "Your Majesty, Lu Huiqing is a treacherous person. One of his intentions is to deceive the Lord. If he says 90%, is it really 90%? Does your Majesty believe it?"
"One or two percent of what I said is too much. Sima Jun's actual words are not even one percent. Why didn't Your Majesty listen? Listen to Lu Huiqing's words instead."
Seeing Feng Jing criticizing Lu Huiqing for confusing the Lord, the official said angrily: "Lu Huiqing's words are exaggerated. I guess 70% of them were true in the past."
Zhang Yue thought to himself that Lu Huiqing, watching his achievements on Xihe Road, was afraid that the emperor would shift the strategic focus to Xihe Road and ignore him, so he continued to advocate the main attack on Hengshan among the officials.
Ninety percent chance of winning? You, Lu Huiqing, really dare to speak up.
The Argentine men's football team didn't dare to claim a 90% chance of winning when they played in the national football team, but Lu Huiqing dared to boast a 90% chance.
The official said to Zhang Yue: "When you were discussing matters in Zizheng Hall, you once said that if Mu Zheng refused to surrender and Dong Felt refused, the chance of winning the attack on Xia would be less than 50%. Now that Mu Zheng and Dong Xiang are both equal, the chance of winning the attack on Xia is 50%." Qi Cheng, is this what you said?"
After Zhang Yue first opened up the five states of Xihe, after returning to the court, he was interviewed by the ministers of the two governments led by Wang Anshi at the Zizheng Palace, regarding the future attack on Xixia.
All the remarks made at that time were recorded and given to the emperor for inspection.
At that time, I did say that as the emperor said, but I had a few additional conditions, but the officials ignored them.
It is now listed as evidence in court.
Can Zhang Yue say that he was...bragging?
Zhang Yue said 70% at the time. In fact, the main purpose was to deceive the two governments and gain favorable support from the court's resources to support him in continuing to use troops on Xihe Road.
As for whether it is 70% or not, who cares then? Let’s talk about it later.
There are countless boasts made by ministers these days. In order for the emperor to focus his attack on Xixia on Hengshan, Lu Huiqing could boast 90%, and Zhang Yue could boast 70%. He felt that he was very kind and fully praised. Be a perfect person.
Zhang Yue didn't want anyone to take it out later, and the emperor had such a good memory that he took his boast seriously.
This is bragging or not bragging. Zhang Yue did not expect that he would defeat Qing Tang so quickly. This is thirty years ahead of schedule in the history of another time and space.
Zhang Yue immediately complained to Ali Gu, why are you such a bad guy? Wouldn't it be nice to play for two more years?
Qingtang was really conquered, and the officials shot themselves in the foot by questioning what they had said.
If Zhang Yue wanted to change his words, it would be the crime of deceiving the emperor.
But he didn't change his mind and still said it was 70%.
With this winning rate, the emperor could raise an overwhelming army to attack Xia and complete his victory in one battle.
If he is defeated, Zhang Yue will have to bear the huge responsibility.
Seeing Zhang Yue's hesitation, Yuan Jiang immediately felt relieved from yesterday's shortness of breath. You, Zhang San, should be bragging, and now you will reap the consequences.
No matter what, Zhang Yue couldn't change his words at this moment even if he was talking about breaking the sky.
Feng Jing also had a solemn look on his face, almost questioning these 70% words with his eyes. Thank you Zhang San for having the nerve to say it.
Zhang Yue thought for a while and said: "Your Majesty, let me try to find a way."
The official said: "Please give it a try."
Zhang Yue immediately waved to Shi De who was standing by the palace. Shi Deyi was also a noble official and the celebrity in front of the emperor. When he saw Zhang Yue waving, he respectfully stepped forward and asked, "What does Zhang Da Shen have?" Order?"
Zhang Yue whispered a few words to Shi Deyi.
Shi Deyi was slightly surprised and then said: "We will go down and prepare now."
After a while, the waiter Shi De came to the palace carrying a sealed wooden barrel and handed it to Zhang Yue.
Everyone saw that there was only a hole as big as a bowl in the barrel, but they could not see what was in the barrel.
Zhang Yue immediately raised the barrel and said, "Your Majesty, I asked Shi Deyi to take twenty stones, and an unknown number of them were painted with colored stones. Only Shi Deyi in this palace knows how many colored stones there are."
"I, Your Majesty, and Feng Jing will make a bet today. Let's each guess how many colored stones there are in this bucket. Whoever gets closer wins!"
The official smiled when he heard this and said: "Interesting, let me guess first, there are 75%, which is fifteen colored stones."
Zhang Yue smiled and asked Feng Jing, "Where is Mr. Feng?"
Feng Jing said: "Five colored stones."
Everyone heard that Guan Jia and Feng Jing were blindly guessing the colored stones in the bucket based on the winning rate they just discussed against Xixia.
Although there is no connection between the two, the meaning of anger is obvious.
Zhang Yue said: "I'll give you a guess. I'll guess the number of ten."
After finishing speaking, Zhang Yue said to another chamberlain: "Take four pills first."
After hearing this, the chamberlain reached out and took out four stones from the bucket, but found that three were colored stones and one was an ordinary stone.
Seeing this, the official smiled and said, "It seems that I have won."
Zhang Yue said with a smile: "Then Your Majesty still insists on fifteen, so let me change it. I will change it to twelve colored stones. Mr. Feng, do you need to change it?"
Feng Jing hesitated and said, "I'll change it to seven."
Immediately Zhang Yue said to the chamberlain: "Take four more."
But the waiter took out four more stones, two of which were colored stones and two of which were ordinary stones.
Zhang Yue smiled and said: "Your Majesty, I changed it to eleven. Your Majesty, will you change it?"
When the official heard this, he thought for a moment and said, "You have no joke, I won't change it."
Zhang Yue looked at Feng Jing and said, "Do you want Mr. Feng to change it?"
Feng Jing pondered slightly and said, "I'll change it to eight."
The waiter took out four more stones from the bucket, only to find one colored stone and three ordinary stones.
This time, none of the three emperors, Feng Jing, Zhang Yue, changed their ways.
Finally, Zhang Yue ordered his chamberlain to pour out all the stones in the bucket. Everyone counted clearly that there were ten colored stones and ten ordinary stones.
Shi Deyi trembled all over, knelt down and said: "Your Majesty, I am indeed so lethargic. I...I am guilty of death!"
At this moment, no one was smiling, but the official himself looked a little unhappy.
There were no words from the ministers in the palace, especially Feng Jing, whose expression was extremely solemn. Everyone was thinking carefully about the meaning of Zhang Yue's story about "Colored Stones in a Barrel" just now.
The example Zhang Yue cited is Bayes' theorem.
Bayes' formula is a probability theorem from the 18th century. Nowadays, it has been widely used in various aspects such as artificial intelligence.
Everything in the world is a matter of probability. Theoretically speaking, the national football team can also beat the Argentine national team. It is just a matter of probability.
Bayes' theorem is mainly used to find the inverse probability, and the specific application is similar to the above [Colored Stones in the Bucket].
First take a prior probability and multiply it by a likelihood function.
For example, the emperor said that the winning rate of attacking Xia was 70%, Zhang Yue was 50%, and Feng Jing was 30%. This is the prior probability. Without experiments, no one knows.
Unless you pour out all the stones in the bucket, no one knows how many colored stones are in the bucket.
The same is true for the attack on Xia. If the Song army did not send troops, no one could tell what the chances of victory would be.
Except for the emperor, Zhang Yue, and Feng Jing, as well as Lu Huiqing's 90% and Sima Guang's 00%, everyone actually made a probabilistic judgment based on their own experience.
This is called a priori probability.
Everyone is guessing the blind box.
So first take out four stones from the twenty stones and see how many there are. If you don’t try something, you will never know what the result will be.
After there are three colored stones among the four stones, a probability of 75% is obtained. This is the possibility function.
You multiply this likelihood function by the prior probability and use it to correct your previous guess to get a closer result.
Of course, once is not enough, you have to do it again. The more you try, the closer you get to the real probability.
So there are BO5, BO7.
A priori means to act before you act, and a posteriori means to act before you know. It is also true knowledge that comes from practice. There has been debate in philosophy for countless years about the issue of a priori and a posteriori.
At this moment, everyone in the palace was silent. Zhang Yue's realization was epoch-making. When most people were still struggling with whether to change the law or not, whether to attack Xia or not, Zhang Yue stood up and said that you are all too low.
What's the difference between you guys making so much noise and guessing the blind box over there?
The prior probability is important, but what we want to improve is the probability issue, rather than standing still and guessing right or wrong.
How to be precise? So how is it the only one?
Those officials say all day long that I do great things without sacrificing my own life, and that I have both sides.
As everyone knows, showhand is a kind of wisdom. You must not bet all your money on the gambling table without looking at the hole cards.
Seeing that none of the ministers could take Zhang Yue's words, the official finally said: "Zhang Qing, it's up to you to explain the meaning in detail!"
Zhang Yue looked around. At this moment, all the ministers were speechless.
Zhang Yue said: "Your Majesty, what I want to say is that 'the power of action leads to greater knowledge, and the deeper knowledge leads to greater progress'!"
Ps: Happy New Year!
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