Recently, various places have been liberalizing their policies, and control has been loosened.
Everyone seems to be able to breathe freely. First of all, congratulations.
But, is it really possible?
'Everyone is the first person responsible for their own health. '
Don't try and make mistakes easily with your own health, health is the first priority.
First of all, here, I would like to sincerely thank the country for taking precautions and at least retaining the beauty of the past three years. Even if it affects my company's income, even if I have no choice but to stay at home for several months.
There is such a saying that many people have heard.
'It's not that the world is peaceful, it's just that we are in a peaceful country. '
We are lucky that we live in a peaceful country.
Let’s start with the digression: Careful people may not know if they have noticed that Te Xi was unreliable. When Te Xi was in office, there were relatively few comments about ghosts and monsters on the Internet, but after Te Xi came to power, the Internet began to be filled with all kinds of comments.
Of course, everyone needs to distinguish these by themselves.
What I want to say is whether these remarks are 'opinions' or facts.
Everyone must learn to distinguish the difference between opinions and facts.
Take, for example, the difference between the two.
The temperature is 26 degrees, I feel very hot.
I feel hot, it's a point of view,
The temperature is 26 degrees, that’s a fact.
So when many big Vs said that this was a big flu, there were even many people who came out to speak out and said that everything was fine.
But is that opinion, or fact?
Since it is said to be a pandemic, let me understand what the flu is.
So, what is the flu?
I looked at Baidu Encyclopedia:
Influenza generally refers to influenza. Influenza, or the flu for short, is bullshit.
It can cause seasonal epidemics every year, and outbreaks can occur in places where people gather, such as schools, child care institutions, and nursing homes.
A global study showed that the infection rate and prevalence rate were 10.7% and 4.4% among adults, and 7.2% among those over 65 years old.
The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that seasonal influenza causes 3 million to 5 million severe cases and 290,000 to 650,000 deaths globally every year.
You may not know it, but you may be shocked at first glance. It can cause millions of people to become seriously ill and even hundreds of thousands of people to die in a year.
But as a pandemic, how should it be rated?
So far, the total number of deaths globally is 662,000, with an average of 2,210,000 deaths per year.
221/29=7.6
221/65=3.4
So purely from this perspective, this large flu is probably 3-7 times the flu plus version.
But I think this data is wrong, because some places are data black holes. After all, no inspection means nothing.
On May 5, 2022, the latest estimates from the World Health Organization showed that nearly 15 million people died directly or indirectly in 2020 and 2021, most of which occurred in Southeast Asia, Europe, and the Americas.
From January 1, 2020 to December 31, 2021, the total number of deaths directly or indirectly related to it (i.e., the number of "excess deaths") was approximately 14.91 million, and the actual range was between 13.3 million and 16.6 million.
1500/662=2.26 times
So preliminary conclusion:
It is equivalent to: 7.7-17.1 times the number of influenza deaths. Of course, the actual data is larger, after all, I haven’t added the data for 2022 yet.
So, can it be called a pandemic?
By the way, there is a word here called excess death.
What does excess death mean?
“The difference between the actual number of deaths globally and the normal number of deaths estimated based on years when the pandemic did not occur”
So what’s the death toll in a normal year, before the pandemic?
2019: 5.79kw people (60k more than the previous year)
2018: 5.73kw people (40k more than the previous year)
2017: 5.69kw people (70k more than the previous year)
2016: 5.62kw people (40k more than the previous year)
2015: 5.58kw people
The number of new deaths every year fluctuates between 400,000 and 700,000. In the average four years, the number of new deaths every year is 52.50,000. Generally speaking, the number of new deaths every year is 0.9%.
In the two years since the pandemic,
2020: 6.31kw people (5.20k more than 2019),
Excess deaths: 520w-52.5w=467.5w
2021: 6.92kw people (6.10w more than 2020)
Excess deaths: 610-52.5w+467.5=1025w
The total number of excess deaths in the two years: 1025+467.5=1492.5w
(The World Health Organization estimates that the number of deaths due to the pandemic is about 1,500,000)
As an aside, those who are interested can search for the death toll in our country in recent years.
Before the epidemic: 975, 986, 993, 998 (increasing 50,000-90,000 per year)
After the epidemic: 997.6, 1014 (a total increase of 160,000 in two years)
Not because the world is peaceful, just because we are in a peaceful country.
What will be the result if our country is as flat as foreign countries...
Excluding domestic:
In 2019, global death toll: 5.79-0.98=4.81kw
In 2021, global death toll: 6.92-1.01=5.91kw
5.91-4.81=1.1kw people
4810w+(52.5*2-16)w=4899w
1.1kw/4.9kw=22.4%
Excluding China, the global excess mortality rate is 22.4%
In China, the number of deaths per year is about 1kw.
If calculated according to this ratio, the number of new deaths per year would be 224,000
But is this all history? These are all previous viruses. The 2022 virus is much better, but is it really?
For example, in Singapore, compared with the first nine months of 2019, 4,147 more people died in the first nine months of 2022, with the excess mortality rate reaching an astonishing 26%.
It seems to be quite close to the global excess mortality rate of 22.4% in 2021.
This year, Singapore announced only 875 deaths from COVID-19, which is only 21% of the excess deaths.
Not checking means nothing.
"The American funeral industry giant made a net profit of US$500 million in nine months. The CEO bluntly said: I didn't expect so many people to die."
On November 2, SCI, the largest funeral industry giant in North America, announced its third quarter financial report. The financial report showed that SCI's net profit reached US$500 million in the first nine months of 2022, and its stock price rose again.
The company's CEO said that their industry has been stable over the years because the number of deaths in the United States does not change much every year. However, since the COVID-19 epidemic in 2020, the number of funerals held by the company has increased by 20%. Even until 2022, the number of funerals is still 19% higher than the same period in 2019. Moreover, according to his prediction, the U.S. business is likely to maintain sustained high growth in the next five years. "
So many people are gone, so I rarely see them online.
My point is: Is it possible that the people who want to complain loudly, they no longer do.
Survivor bias: During World War II, in order to strengthen the protection of fighter planes, the Allies carefully counted the bullet marks on the fighter planes and decided to strengthen the armor protection where there were more bullet marks. However, this seemingly reasonable suggestion was resisted by statistician Ward. He believed that armor protection should be strengthened in locations with few bullet wounds.
Why should we add armor to areas with few bullet marks? Because the aircraft with many bullet marks in those areas will be cold.
This is survivorship bias.
The athletes on the World Cup pitch are all fit, so everyone is fit?
When rich people gather together and chat, one hundred million is just a small goal. So, is it easy for ordinary people to make one hundred million?
For example, in the past two years, those who engaged in nuclear warfare and sold masks have made money. Their income has doubled several times, but has the income of others also doubled?
People who can speak online, think about it, what is the age of most of them?
Think about the elderly people around you. How many of them would leave messages online?
What we see is not necessarily the truth.
I hope this article can bring value to you.
Everyone is the first person responsible for their own health.
I wish you all the best.
