Of course, Liu Bei was a little unwilling to be in a state where he would still have to "resist pressure and wait for changes" once he wanted to go home from Lu Bu, so he was eager to ask questions.
When Zhuge Jin thought that this "change" could actually be "Yuan Shu proclaiming himself emperor", Liu Bei was immediately shocked and was afraid to think about it for the time being.
Zhuge Jin's words were of course a bit blunt, with a bit of a time traveler's prophetic prophecy.
But upon closer inspection, he also left some room - he only said "such as" becoming emperor.
Adding "for example" gives you more room for maneuver. It can be seen that this is just one of the assumptions about the means, and it does not say that Yuan Shu will definitely become the public enemy of the world in this way.
When Liu Bei figured out the key, he was not so shocked.
Over the past twenty days, Zhuge Jin has accumulated so much trust in his heart that no matter how shocked he is, he is willing to patiently listen to the analysis.
Liu Bei took a deep breath, solemnly raised his hands and asked: "Sir, please explain in detail, why do you think Yuan Jiujiu is likely to risk the disapproval of the world?"
Zhuge Jin then confidently analyzed: "Currently Yuan Shu has not reached the point where he must proclaim himself emperor. But with his arrogance and intolerance of injustice, if things go on like this, it is not impossible for him to do so in a year and a half."
The reason is simple: the Yuan brothers have always been unwilling to be restricted by the imperial court. When Dong Zhuo burned down Luoyang, the world was shocked. Cao Cao was still able to pursue the enemy fiercely, but Yuan and Yuan led other princes to stop moving forward.
It can be seen that the two Yuans were just trying to expand their power by challenging Dong. If the emperor was really welcomed back, they would be at a loss. Later, during the three years when Dong Zhuo died and Jue Si held the emperor hostage, Cao Cao still petitioned the emperor for an official position, regardless of his face to please Jue Si, while the two Yuans had completely ignored the imperial court.
Yuan Shao tried to establish another great lord, Liu Yu, but Yuan Shu arbitrarily detained the three envoys sent by Guanzhong, such as Ma Rixi, and used the seal of the scepter to convey his wishes.
By committing such an act, they accumulated too many old debts to the imperial court. So much so that in the month when Cao Cao welcomed the Emperor back, he appointed the general as Zhendong General and envoy to attack Yuan Shu.
Although the general's attack was not fully successful because Lu Bu attacked the rear, he still defeated Ji Ling and Liu Xun. Now that the Emperor has been controlled by Cao Cao for three months, will Cao Cao issue an edict to other princes and legitimately ask them to challenge Yuan Shu?
If the decree reaches Liu Biao, what will happen to Yuan Shu? And recently I heard that Zhang Ji of Liangzhou tried to march eastward, but was killed by an arrow in Nanyang. Will Zhang Ji's remnants, in their hesitation and despair, reconcile with Liu Biao and obey the imperial decree to atone for their sins?
Moreover, although both Yuan and Yuan were guilty of not paying attention to the court, Yuan Shao was Cao Cao's ally and old boss after all. After Cao Cao became the emperor, he declared Yuan Shao as a general and regarded himself as a chariot and cavalry general. It can be seen that with Cao Cao's wisdom, he had already thought that he could not break with the two Yuans at the same time and still respected Yuan Shao.
In this case, in the name of the imperial court, all its efforts will be used to suppress Yuan Shu. If Yuan Shu did not break away and establish a new center, he would be overwhelmed by the endless emperor's crusade. In this case, with Yuan Shu's temper that can't bear to be wronged, he will definitely feel that if he doesn't rebel, his flesh will be cut with a dull knife and he will be slowly consumed to death. It is better to just obey and go to war. "
Zhuge Jin's analysis can be regarded as half-relying on prophecy and half-relying on real talent and practical learning, which is completely in line with the situation at that time.
Historically, Yuan Shu proclaimed himself emperor in February next year, which is exactly half a year ago. Although history has changed and may be delayed, the logic remains the same.
Liu Bei thought about it and found that it made sense, but he also keenly saw some uncertain factors and asked probingly:
"There is some truth in what you said. But since ancient times, we have never seen anyone who is so rebellious that he dares to claim the title of king when he is defeated.
Just like Chen defeated Wu Guang in the late Qin Dynasty, and Wang Mang's green forest and red eyebrows, they all took advantage of victory to become king. Yuan Shu is now defeated, how dare he advance? "
When Zhuge Jin heard this question, his eyes lit up, and he gained another understanding of Liu Bei's political consciousness.
Because Liu Bei’s worry is indeed about the butterfly effect of history——
Historically, before Yuan Shu became emperor, he defeated Liu Bei and almost destroyed Liu Bei. He also gained the nominal surrender of Lu Bu, which made him feel that "most of the world is in my hands." This was supplemented by the fact that he never wanted to be defeated by Cao Cao. His will is disgusting, and the two work together to become emperor.
"The emperor who does not want to be controlled by Cao Cao is disgusted." This is Yuan Shu's inner motivation for proclaiming himself emperor, which solves his problem of "doing it or not".
"We have just achieved a series of military and diplomatic victories", which was Yuan Shu's external reliance on proclaiming himself emperor, and solved his question of "dare or not".
You must both think and dare, both of which are indispensable, before proclaiming yourself emperor can be put into practice.
Therefore, Liu Bei's history-changing victory will inevitably delay Yuan Shu's proclaimed emperor, but we don't know exactly how many months it will be delayed.
The reason is very simple. Yuan Shu's courage to "dare or not" was slightly dampened by Liu Bei's battle.
He must make up for his losses in other directions so that he can replenish his "courage tank" in a matter of seconds.
Therefore, Zhuge Jin must remind Liu Bei: Don't provoke Yuan Shu at this time. It will only hurt both sides and waste money. On the contrary, it may knock back Yuan Shu's energy gathering progress bar.
However, these words could not be said directly, so Zhuge Jin had to embellish it a little:
"... Therefore, Yuan Shu's arrogance must be compensated in other directions, which will eventually lead to him becoming a public enemy of the world. And we must guard our place and not let Yuan Shu see any flaws. Then there are only so many people who Yuan Shu can seek compensation for. Not much left.
In my estimation, Sun Ce is still a subordinate of Yuan Shu. If Sun Ce makes more progress in Yangzhou, such as killing Wang Lang next year, this may completely arouse Yuan Shu's arrogance and give him the courage to risk the world. No.
If Sun Ce's side is not enough, Lu Bu is also an option. I also said that Lu Bu may reconcile with us now, but it is impossible in the long run. When Lu Bu completely controls Xuzhou and has no worries at home, he will definitely expand outwards and will definitely turn against us again.
And once Lu Bu turns against us, it is inevitable that he will join forces with Yuan Shu in name, and Yuan Shu will be inspired by that time.
Furthermore, if the general can keep the confidentiality work well enough, he may borrow troops from my uncle to capture Yuzhang County in the future, which may lead to Yuan Shu becoming more arrogant——
I am ashamed to say that although my uncle's Yuzhang prefect was appointed by Liu Biao, he had been an old official of Yuan Shu for a while in his early years. If the uncle actually took control of Yuzhang, he secretly sent a secret message to Yuan Shu, hinting that he wanted to make friends and support him.
Then maybe Yuan Shu would also feel, 'I finally controlled Yuzhang through the Zhuge family, the court and the bandits.' But this requires the general to act humbly. He cannot publicize the good relationship between the Zhuge family and the general, nor can he openly expose that the Zhuge family borrowed the troops and horses to recover Yuzhang from the general.
Otherwise, Yuan Shu would know that our Zhuge family had severed all ties with him long ago, and this strategy of flattering and confirming his arrogance would not work. "
After Liu Bei heard this, his eyes widened and he was speechless for a long time.
This was the first time he heard Zhuge Jin discuss such a far-reaching grand strategy, looking forward and deducing the evolution of the relationship between the enemy and the world's princes.
Unexpectedly, Tzuyu not only had such rich military strategies and on-the-spot tactics in small battles, but also had such a clear overall macroscopic vision of the world!
Liu Bei was stunned for a long time before letting out a long sigh: "I originally thought that with the current friendship between Wang Lang and us, we would have to rescue Sun Ce when he attacked Wang Lang in the future. Now listening to Ziyu's analysis, do we still have to rescue him? Sit back and watch Wang Lang's destruction?
Before Yuan Shu risked the disapproval of the world, couldn't he directly take action to contain Sun Ce? All this is to let Yuan Shu see hope and strengthen his madness? "
Zhuge Jin said that there was no way to do this: "Although Yuan Shu and his direct allies cannot be moved for the time being, the world is so big that there are countless people who can defeat thieves and quell the rebellion. Guangling and Yuzhang are enough for the general to spend a year to stabilize the place." Around Yuzhang and other places in Jiangdong, there are also corners that Sun Ce cannot take care of for the time being. There are Danyang thieves who have established their own rule.
As the saying goes, haste makes waste, sometimes, slow is fast. As long as we can catalyze Yuan Shu to become the public enemy of the world as quickly as possible, even if we move slowly for a while, we will move faster in the future. "
Liu Bei thought about it again and again, and finally made up his mind and handed over to Zhuge Jin: "In this case, Bei has no doubts. In the next one or two years, our army's attitude towards foreign wars will be entirely decided by Sir! Whatever you say, Sir, What!"
After finishing speaking, Liu Bei stood up and said that all foreign affairs work was officially entrusted to him for coordination, and then sent Zhuge Jin out to set off, officially embarking on the road of reconciliation as envoy to Lu Bu.
——
PS: As usual, it will be updated on Monday and Wednesday... Actually, I originally wanted to break it into chapters with 2,000 words, but I failed to break them into chapters. Each chapter is actually at least 2,670 words. In total, I will give you two thousand more words today.
Yesterday was the same... There were obviously two updates. The last update was to finish writing a small plot, which was extended to 4,000 words. Yesterday, I gave you an extra 1,000 words.
In the future, I will strive to practice the art of breaking chapters...
(Or... let's discuss it. How about even if I pay the three thousand words in advance and the additional debt? I'll ask... maybe it's not two thousand...)
