Zhuge Jin finally made up his mind to help Liu Bei with his plan and no longer worried about saying the wrong thing.
But the military is a major event for the country, a place of life and death, how can we ignore it?
Before making formal plans, it is still very necessary to fully investigate the strength of the enemy and ourselves.
Only by knowing yourself and the enemy can you fight without danger.
So Zhuge Jin asked Liu Bei in detail: the current strength, deployment, commanding generals, and food and grass situation of the enemy and our armies.
Some of these data, such as the food and grass situation of Yuan Shujun, were not clear to Liu Bei.
Whatever Liu Bei could know, he knew everything.
Now is the critical moment of survival, and there is no room for hiding any secrets.
After just a few minutes, Zhuge Jin roughly figured out:
Liu Bei's current garrison in Guangling County has a total strength of approximately 13,000 to 13,000 troops.
Yuan Shu's army mobilized about 40,000 people, three times as many as Liu Bei's army. This does not include Yuan Shu's reserve team in the rear.
Today, under Yuan Shu's rule, the people may be in poverty and poverty, but the size of his army cannot be underestimated.
In particular, he had reached the high position of General Hou many years ago. Before the Dong Zhuo Rebellion broke out, he used his authority to bring out some of the elite Northern Army members from the imperial court. His family background was quite strong.
In contrast, even Yuan Shao and Cao Cao were not assigned to the old Central Army Department of the Han Dynasty at that time. They all relied on local armed forces to make their fortunes.
The only strong force in the Xuzhou Army that could compete with Yuan Shu's old northern army was the Danyang Army.
It is a pity that the Danyang soldiers directly under Liu Bei have never exceeded four to five thousand for many years.
However, the main force of the Danyang army left by Tao Qian was still led by Cao Bao.
This time, as Zhang Fei killed Cao Bao, Cao Bao's old troops defected to Lu Bu and offered Xia Pi.
The Danyang soldiers who stayed behind to guard their homes were completely out of Liu Bei's control.
What Liu Bei can still mobilize now is a total of 3,000 Danyang soldiers, 1,000 Youzhou assault cavalry brought from his hometown, and 10,000 local Xuzhou ordinary soldiers.
The situation is extremely serious.
…
"This is the situation. We have 12,000 troops stationed in Huaiyin County, and another 2,000 troops are scattered in Haixi County and other places behind us.
However, Yuan's army of 40,000 men could not be united in one place due to difficulties in supplying food and grass, so they advanced in two directions.
The main force, more than 25,000 people, came from Xuyi along the Huaihe River. They were led by general Ji Ling and other generals Liang Gang and Lejiu.
The other group of more than 15,000 people went eastward along the Yangtze River from Lujiang County to Guangling County in Yangzhou and entered Hangou to the north. They were led by General Liu Xun and other generals Lei Bo and Chen Lan.
Today Ji Ling has arrived at the village in the west of the city and is harassing the north of the city with his cavalry.
Due to the long circuitous route, Liu Xun's troops are expected to take several days to reach Huaiyin. If nothing unexpected happens, they will most likely go to the south of the city to threaten our southeastern sides.
I originally planned to rely on the fortified city of Huaiyin to maintain a stalemate, and then plan a counterattack when Ji Ling and Liu Xun's troops were exhausted. But now Xiapi's rear supply of food and grass has been cut off, and the remaining food in the city is less than one month.
What's more, once Yuan Jun also learns that Xiapi has been captured by Lu Bu, his morale will definitely be high. Our army can no longer wait until Yuan Shu's morale is low, and the stalemate is hopeless.
Gongyou and Zizhong then advised me to seize the opportunity in the past few days and concentrate our forces before Liu Xun arrived. If we can defeat Ji Ling first, there may be a chance of success - I wonder what you think, sir? "
Liu Bei explained in great detail, and Zhuge Jin also listened very carefully.
Whether he read "Three Kingdoms" or "The Romance of the Three Kingdoms" in his previous life, these details were not recorded. He could only learn and analyze them through Liu Bei.
Zhuge Jin also carefully looked at the place names mentioned by Liu Bei on the map to confirm the correspondence between ancient and modern times.
During the Eastern Han Dynasty, "Guangling County" was Yangzhou City in later generations, and "Huaiyin County" corresponded to Huai'an City.
Guangling County was still in the hands of Liu Yao last year, but was later captured by Sun Ce and handed over to Yuan Shu.
Including Hailing next door to Guangling County, which corresponds to Taizhou in later generations, Sun Ce helped Yuan Shu conquer it.
Liu Xun's army was equivalent to attacking north along the Beijing-Hangzhou Grand Canal in later generations. (Note: A map will be attached at the end of this chapter)
After Zhuge Jin thoroughly understood the details of the deployment of troops, he thought about it for a long time, and then carefully gave his opinion:
“With all due respect, I think this approach is quite inappropriate.
The general should not have insisted on the time difference of "Ji Ling has arrived but Liu Xun has not arrived" and forcefully organized a counterattack.
Instead, we should consider blocking the four gates of Huaiyin and holding on to the stalemate for a few more days, waiting for the enemy to relax before trying to attack again. "
When Liu Bei suddenly heard this, he instinctively flashed an expression of disbelief.
But Zhuge Jin had already predicted it once. After Liu Bei calmed down, he controlled his emotions and decided to believe him again, so he asked sincerely:
"Why do you say this, sir? Since ancient times, the art of war has been all about concentrating troops and defeating the enemy one by one.
Our army has a small number of people. Shouldn't we seize the enemy's opportunity to assemble and be weak if divided? "
Zhuge Jin didn't panic, took a pen holder, pointed at several points on the map and explained:
"Xiapi is two hundred and forty miles away from Huaiyin. You can reach it by going down the Si River. Captain Zhang, when did you leave Xiapi? And when did you rush back to Huaiyin to report the news?"
Zhang Fei on the side was suddenly asked and felt a little embarrassed.
He had just caused a big disaster and felt that he was too embarrassed to see anyone. Even if he was questioned by a commoner, he could only answer obediently:
"I found out about Cao Bao's mischief the night before yesterday and had to lead the troops to kill him. I just hate that I don't have enough prestige and I don't usually have the morale of the Danyang soldiers.
After Cao Bao's death, Xu Dan and other Danyang military generals were afraid of my liquidation and refused to defend the gate tower until Lu Bu came from Xiaopei to escort him into the city.
I also tried to fight with him, but I was outnumbered and was forced to flee before noon.
After another day and night of running away, we arrived at Huaiyin just before nightfall. "
Zhang Fei spoke in great detail. From his narration, we can also hear some points worth overturning the verdict:
Zhang Fei's abandonment of Pi in history has nothing to do with "drunk and causing trouble and whipping Lu Bu's father-in-law".
Cao Bao was not Lu Bu's father-in-law at all. He was dissatisfied with Liu Bei's rule, so he spontaneously wanted to take advantage of the opportunity to rebel.
Zhang Fei's fault was mainly that he failed to subdue other old Danyang generals with thunder in time after discovering the rebellion, but it had nothing to do with drinking and beating people.
Zhuge Jin didn't care much about these details. After he got the key details he wanted from Zhang Fei's statement, he immediately turned to Liu Bei to explain:
"Captain Zhang left Xiapi yesterday morning, and now he is here. It can be seen that the two places are too close to each other, and the time difference between those with fast horses and those with slow horses is not enough.
Therefore, I estimate that if Ji Ling is quicker, they will get the news later in the night.
In this way, their morale will be high. If you want to attack again, Ji Ling will fight to the death.
Moreover, he will strengthen his confidence because of this and conclude that the sneak attack on Xiapi is true and is definitely not false information deliberately spread by our army, so our army is eager to fight.
In contrast, if you stand still. Maybe Ji Ling would be suspicious of the evidence, worried that the so-called "Xiapi had a mistake" was a tactic to lure the enemy into showing weakness, or was false news based on rumors.
He may be suspicious in the first few days, but when Liu Xun joins forces with him a few days later, their wariness will be relaxed to the extreme.
After all, according to common sense in the art of war, the generals did not dare to take the initiative to ask for war or hijack the camp before they joined forces. So how could they attack after they successfully joined forces?
When the time comes and the general takes advantage of his laziness and goes against the grain, there may be a glimmer of hope. This so-called art of war should be imaginary and real, and real should be imaginary. "
Liu Bei listened quietly and did not interrupt. He just pulled the mustache on his lips with such force that it almost came off.
After listening to this, Sun Qian thought about it over and over again. He always felt that this strategy was too risky, but he couldn't see any benefits. He couldn't help but said worriedly:
"Sir, you are worried that Ji Ling might be wary, which makes sense.
But just for such a small psychological morale gap, delaying for several more days may not necessarily change too much. Isn't it too worthless?
Our army is short of food and grass. Even if we defeat the enemy in this battle, we will not be able to get supplies immediately.
They have to move to Haixi County in the rear, or forcefully capture a grain-harvesting stronghold of Yuan Shu's army somewhere, in order to completely overcome the life-and-death crisis.
The lord must keep enough food and grass for these followers, otherwise even if he wins the battle temporarily, the army will still run out of food and collapse.
Moreover, it is not easy to conceal the bad news of Xiapi being attacked from our soldiers.
It is possible to seal it for one or two days, but if you want to seal it for four, five days or even longer, there may be mistakes.
Once the bad news is leaked and the morale of the military collapses, there will be no chance for them to fight to the death. "
When Sun Qian explained his concerns, Zhuge Jin also did not interrupt. Instead, he very gracefully took a pen and made some simple notes on the waste paper to summarize the other party's arguments.
After the analysis was clear, Zhuge Jin methodically stretched out a finger:
"I will break down the concerns you mentioned one by one, starting with the issue of military rations.
You also said that to ensure that the army does not collapse, it is not enough to just win the battle in front of you. We still have to transfer our troops to Haixi, or storm a Yuan army's grain garrison stronghold——
So I would like to ask, how much grain is left in Haixi County? If the army passes by, how long will it take to feed them? "
Sun Qian himself was a Hucao, so he responded to this question:
"The estuary of the Huaihe River in the remote area of Haixi is not a battleground for military strategists. There are usually only a thousand troops stationed there, so there is no special purpose to store grain...
The surplus food there should be enough to feed the local garrison for three to five months. If the main force goes there, the number of people will increase tenfold, and it will probably only take half a month. "
"This is just a drop in the bucket. The army will consume more than half of it on the way back and forth,"
Zhuge Jin pointed out very decisively, "So, in fact, we have only one option, that is, after winning the field battle, we must capture another Yuan Army's grain garrison stronghold as a foundation. There is no other way."
Sun Qian did not hesitate this time and immediately nodded helplessly.
Zhuge Jin continued to press forward step by step: "Then where do you think this enemy's grain garrison area that must be attacked should be chosen?"
Sun Qian was stunned and couldn't answer immediately.
He thought seriously for a while and looked at the map again and again before he solemnly said:
"Only the west and south sides of our army are Yuan Shu's territory. If we can defeat the enemy in the field, the follow-up will be nothing more than following the enemy's path to cover up the enemy.
Therefore, either Ji Ling sent troops to Xuyi, or Liu Xun sent troops to Guangling County, there was no third option.
Xuyi was abandoned by our army in an orderly manner a few days ago. There was no surplus food in the city, and Ji Ling's own military food had to be transported from Huailing further upstream.
On the contrary, Guangling County, where Liu Xun sent troops, was captured by Sun Ce from Liu Yao last year and then handed over to Yuan Shu. Liu Xun should have some savings there.
Therefore, counterattacking Guangling County and seizing the local surplus food to support the army should be the only way for our army to survive. "
Sun Qian and others had not thought so far ahead. They just wanted to win the imminent field battle in front of them and take one step at a time.
At this moment, being guided by Zhuge Jin to think step by step, they took a slightly longer-term view and were able to look at the problem from a global perspective.
And Liu Bei didn't finally confirm it until he heard this:
Just winning the upcoming wild battle is not enough.
A follow-up field battle and a critical battle to seize a grain camp, these two battles will be one.
It would only make sense to win both games. Losing any game would be enough for him to completely lose his army and territory.
Therefore, when making decisions, he must consider everything.
Never use short-sighted tricks that make winning the first sub-campaign relatively easy but make the second sub-campaign more difficult.
Zhuge Jin waited for their brains to digest and absorb these twists and turns before continuing to analyze in an orderly manner:
"It can be seen from this that if we follow Gongyou's strategy and attack Ji Ling first tomorrow, even if we win the victory of defeating each one, so what?
Once Ji Ling is defeated, will Liu Xun, who is still at least two days away from Huaiyin, dare to continue heading north?
When the time comes, Liu Xun will definitely become a frightened bird and immediately retreat to Guangling County and defend behind closed doors!
What do we do then? Are you eager to chase Guangling City and attack it?
We only have 20 days of rations. We have to build siege equipment when we get there. How long will it take to capture the city?
Once the food is exhausted during the siege, the army will immediately collapse!
And I advise the general not to be impatient, but to wait until Liu Xun and Ji Ling have successfully joined forces and their vigilance has dropped to the lowest point before taking action.
Only in this way can we have the opportunity to weaken Ji Ling and Liu Xun at the same time in a field battle.
Then they would kill Liu Xun's remaining troops and pursue them to seize Guangling, or they might plan to use surprise troops to deceive the city.
Isn't this much more certain than directly attacking a fortified city with sufficient troops? "
When Zhuge Jin mentioned this, Liu Bei and Sun Qian finally became enlightened.
They had to admit that if we only looked at the first of the two goals of "field battle" and "grain grabbing", Zhuge Jin's strategy was indeed risky compared to Sun Qian.
But if these two goals are evaluated as a whole and must be realized, then Zhuge Jin's plan is already much smarter than Sun Qian's.
Since Liu Xun is their target that must be severely damaged or even eliminated, it is obviously much easier to eliminate him in a home field battle outside Huaiyin County than to rush to Guangling County and eliminate him in an away siege.
Liu Bei's eyes changed several times, and then settled on determination.
He took a few deep breaths, suddenly pulled out his two swords, and slashed off two corners of the bookcase with two swipes.
"I have made up my mind! I will follow Ziyu's plan! For the next few days, I will close the city gate tightly, prohibit all internal and external communication, and block all news. Anyone who dares to spread the word that there is something wrong in Pi will be executed immediately!
Waiting for Liu Xun to go north and join forces with Ji Ling smoothly! Then I'll make a desperate move and fight to the death! "
Seeing this, Zhuge Jin could finally breathe a sigh of relief: it seemed that he was finally starting to change history.
According to the records of "Three Kingdoms", the war between Liu and Yuan ended with "the army collapsed when they went south to attack Guangling."
Extrapolating from this, Liu Bei in history should also have won the Huaiyin battle with Ji Ling.
Because otherwise, he would not even have the chance to touch the city wall of Guangling County in the future. If he loses the first battle, it will be gone.
It's just that Liu Bei in history, because he was poor and short-minded, was unable to look too far ahead or plan the overall situation, and eventually died slowly in the process of seeking stability.
Since Zhuge Jin knew that seeking stability would result in death, he would certainly encourage Liu Bei to make a big bet.
Although the risk is still huge, you might be able to fight to the death or even win 50-50.
This is better than "even if you win the first battle, you can only sit and wait for death in the second battle."
——
PS: A big chapter of 5,000 words, please collect it, vote for it, follow it up and make comments. Starting from tomorrow, I will resume unpacking the two updates.
